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Skivt2

The 2016-17 Ski Season Thread

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8 hours ago, j24vt said:

How is the water level in the snow making pond at Stowe?

Pond is completely full and ready to go.  We were talking about it the other day.

Its really only September that was dry.  June/July/August were dead on normal for rainfall.

The issue would be more in mid-winter if we don't have additional precipitation to have the river flowing at higher levels so the pond can be refilled.  If not another drop of precipitation fell by January 1st, there's still enough water to get every snowmaking trail open.  

 

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So Killington legitimately made snow Sunday night in the glades area where early season skiing typically starts.  Arguably it was a marketing decision given the huge Columbus Day crowd in town.  Anybody giving odds on whether they can pull off fully covering Superstar in time for the World Cup on thanksgiving.  It looks only moderately cold between now and then.

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10 hours ago, Skivt2 said:

So Killington legitimately made snow Sunday night in the glades area where early season skiing typically starts.  Arguably it was a marketing decision given the huge Columbus Day crowd in town.  Anybody giving odds on whether they can pull off fully covering Superstar in time for the World Cup on thanksgiving.  It looks only moderately cold between now and then.

I'm not an expert in either weather or mountain ops. but it seems like a waste of $$ and water to me.

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14 hours ago, Skivt2 said:

So Killington legitimately made snow Sunday night in the glades area where early season skiing typically starts.  Arguably it was a marketing decision given the huge Columbus Day crowd in town.  Anybody giving odds on whether they can pull off fully covering Superstar in time for the World Cup on thanksgiving.  It looks only moderately cold between now and then.

There is no reason to make that snow other than marketing and equipment testing. 

 

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14 hours ago, Skivt2 said:

So Killington legitimately made snow Sunday night in the glades area where early season skiing typically starts.  Arguably it was a marketing decision given the huge Columbus Day crowd in town.  Anybody giving odds on whether they can pull off fully covering Superstar in time for the World Cup on thanksgiving.  It looks only moderately cold between now and then.

 

Still way too far out to know how November will turn out. They'd probably only need a week of good solid cold leading into Thanksgiving to get that run covered really well...even if the early part of the month was a torch.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Still way too far out to know how November will turn out. They'd probably only need a week of good solid cold leading into Thanksgiving to get that run covered really well...even if the early part of the month was a torch.

It would have to be a week of below freezing mixed with some teens for temps.  Then you need to drain it for a couple days, a couple more days of pushing and netting.

The one thing the public doesn't know about these events (say World Cup race) is there are depth requirements.  It's much different than opening a run for the public with 1-2 feet of groomed out snow.  They need significant depth straight to the treeline (maybe even as much as 4-5 feet) to safely secure the safety netting.  A World Cup event takes A-rated netting which is the highest rated (most other races will do B and C netting) and requires the most depth to anchor.  It needs to hold you at 70mph going into it without getting pulled out.   There are also depth requirements for the gates but that's not much issue. The main thing is getting enough depth on the treeline to anchor nets.

Its certainly a logistical challenge and the entire eastern ski industry is pulling for them.  First World Cup race in decades on the East coast....but there's also a reason they aren't held here as much due to the variable weather and large resources needed to pull it off.  Doing it in November in the east is definitely going to take some serious help from Nature.

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29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It would have to be a week of below freezing mixed with some teens for temps.  Then you need to drain it for a couple days, a couple more days of pushing and netting.

The one thing the public doesn't know about these events (say World Cup race) is there are depth requirements.  It's much different than opening a run for the public with 1-2 feet of groomed out snow.  They need significant depth straight to the treeline (maybe even as much as 4-5 feet) to safely secure the safety netting.  A World Cup event takes A-rated netting which is the highest rated (most other races will do B and C netting) and requires the most depth to anchor.  It needs to hold you at 70mph going into it without getting pulled out.   There are also depth requirements for the gates but that's not much issue. The main thing is getting enough depth on the treeline to anchor nets.

Its certainly a logistical challenge and the entire eastern ski industry is pulling for them.  First World Cup race in decades on the East coast....but there's also a reason they aren't held here as much due to the variable weather and large resources needed to pull it off.  Doing it in November in the east is definitely going to take some serious help from Nature.

 

Interesting info on the depth requirements.

 

So yeah, they better not get any nasty cutters. They'll prob be fine if we avoid them.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Interesting info on the depth requirements.

 

So yeah, they better not get any nasty cutters. They'll prob be fine if we avoid them.

Yeah long winded post to basically say they can't "dust and run" with a World Cup event.  They've gotta put some time into it to get the depths and evenness across the trail that is expected for those events.

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37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah long winded post to basically say they can't "dust and run" with a World Cup event.  They've gotta put some time into it to get the depths and evenness across the trail that is expected for those events.

Are all the alpine events on the schedule there?  Might not require the magnum fencing if it were just slalom and GS.  K-mart has plenty of vertical for the downhill, however, and I'm sure they would want the whole enchilada.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah long winded post to basically say they can't "dust and run" with a World Cup event.  They've gotta put some time into it to get the depths and evenness across the trail that is expected for those events.

Yea, the key time for them will be 10/31-11/15 or so. If that is a good period for making snow ...and by good I mean "it can happen"...they will be ok. A rain-freeze cycle close to the event wouldn't bother the event at all. Heck the pros like it rock hard. 

The killer is if they don't get more than 1-3 days in a row of "good" weather. 

That said, they have 1 job all winter and I'm sure ALL the $$ for snowmaking for the year are on the table for this event.  That said, it will prob. pow hard for the event and have zero feet of viz and we'll all be stoked and the racers miserable. 

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1 minute ago, adk said:

Yea, the key time for them will be 10/31-11/15 or so. If that is a good period for making snow ...and by good I mean "it can happen"...they will be ok. A rain-freeze cycle close to the event wouldn't bother the event at all. Heck the pros like it rock hard. 

The killer is if they don't get more than 1-3 days in a row of "good" weather. 

That said, they have 1 job all winter and I'm sure ALL the $$ for snowmaking for the year are on the table for this event.  That said, it will prob. pow hard for the event and have zero feet of viz and we'll all be stoked and the racers miserable. 

 

They made a bunch of snow on superstar in early/mid November 2014 and then it got absolutely mauled by a horrible cutter 2-3 days before the big pre-Thanksgiving snowstorm (I was up skiing that weekend after T-day and was talking to the staff there and they said how the snowstorm saved the weekend because they had gotten so much snow wiped out right before that). It was like 2 days of 50s/60s and rain. That would be brutal...some of those November southerly gales are a lot different than the typical January cutter which tends to have a lot more CAD involved so the warm sectors are really brief...you get a quick thaw/refreeze. So I'd be a little more afraid of ugly November storms...but hopefully if there is a cutter, it's one of the brief warm sector varieties....hopefully they avoid them at all.

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14 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Why would K-mart schedule an event like that so early?

tenuous at best 

Opportunity.  This will be the first time a World Cup event will be held on the East Coast since 1991.  The last time a World Cup event was held in VT was 1978.  They have to try.  The World Cup officials determine the race schedule not Killington.  This is huge deal for the area.  They need 96 hours of snowmaking apparently.  The question is will this year provide that opportunity.

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15 minutes ago, Skivt2 said:

Opportunity.  This will be the first time a World Cup event will be held on the East Coast since 1991.  The last time a World Cup event was held in VT was 1978.  They have to try.  The World Cup officials determine the race schedule not Killington.  This is huge deal for the area.  They need 96 hours of snowmaking apparently.  The question is will this year provide that opportunity.

The flip side is if they fail, thats it. There will not be another opportunity

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Correct they may succeed and they may fail.  Since Killington's ability to hold the first World Cup event in Vermont in 38 years and in New England in 30 years is weather dependent, it seems like an interesting topic for a weather forum.  They have about 40 days. They have said they need 6 hours of snowmaking a day for like 15-16 days or almost 100 hours of snowmaking.  This week is not favorable so the window is closing.  Is there sustained cold after the warm up?  We shall see.

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6 hours ago, Skivt2 said:

Correct they may succeed and they may fail.  Since Killington's ability to hold the first World Cup event in Vermont in 38 years and in New England in 30 years is weather dependent, it seems like an interesting topic for a weather forum.  They have about 40 days. They have said they need 6 hours of snowmaking a day for like 15-16 days or almost 100 hours of snowmaking.  This week is not favorable so the window is closing.  Is there sustained cold after the warm up?  We shall see.

I mean... that's a huge gamble. The chances of getting good snowmaking conditions that are needed for that long at that time of year is pretty slim. Retaining the snow to satisfy depths is another huge challenge.

It would be cool to see them pull it off, no doubt. Just seems like they are asking for a lot of luck

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13 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mean... that's a huge gamble. The chances of getting good snowmaking conditions that are needed for that long at that time of year is pretty slim. Retaining the snow to satisfy depths is another huge challenge.

It would be cool to see them pull it off, no doubt. Just seems like they are asking for a lot of luck

No matter where in the country you are, there's always luck needed to pull off World Cup events in November.  I've seen them cancelled at Whistler, Vail and Park City in November.  

We had a couple cold Novembers in 2013 and 2014 that would be no problem for Killington.  Just depends on how the dice land.

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18 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

To me it seems whoever schedules the races should have looked at climate.  December would be a better call to me.   I'm sure there are numerous reasons for the date they picked but it is quite the gamble IMHO 

World cup politics.  Won't come to the US once the Europe circuit starts and pretty unlikely to dislodge Aspen for the final.  That leaves November.

 

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Long range, but both Euro and GFS have a solid snowmaking window for at least northern resorts starting late this weekend and going through most of next week. Decent chance we see someone open by next weekend I'd say. Obviously you're looking at K and SR, but I think Bretton Woods is also a dark horse to open; they've got the latitude, will probably get at least some natural snow over the weekend, and they've been known to go for it early when the time is right. Especially given that SR is working off of Aurora vs. T2, BW has a realistic shot at being able to be the first to open if they want it.

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3 hours ago, SR Airglow said:

Long range, but both Euro and GFS have a solid snowmaking window for at least northern resorts starting late this weekend and going through most of next week. Decent chance we see someone open by next weekend I'd say. Obviously you're looking at K and SR, but I think Bretton Woods is also a dark horse to open; they've got the latitude, will probably get at least some natural snow over the weekend, and they've been known to go for it early when the time is right. Especially given that SR is working off of Aurora vs. T2, BW has a realistic shot at being able to be the first to open if they want it.

Yeah it's looking like first runs of the season for northern resorts Sunday, at least for those willing to hike. 6-10" from NWS btv at 3500'. 

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4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah it's looking like first runs of the season for northern resorts Sunday, at least for those willing to hike. 6-10" from NWS btv at 3500'. 

Noticed it looked like an upslope event for northern mountains. Jay Peak?

 

As for K Mart World Cup event, I think they'll be ok. Usually around Thanksgiving the ground is beginning to freeze for me up at the cabin which I guess means average daily temp around freezing. Factor in elevation, I'd think they'd be fine. Maybe 90%?

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9 hours ago, MarkO said:

Noticed it looked like an upslope event for northern mountains. Jay Peak?

 

As for K Mart World Cup event, I think they'll be ok. Usually around Thanksgiving the ground is beginning to freeze for me up at the cabin which I guess means average daily temp around freezing. Factor in elevation, I'd think they'd be fine. Maybe 90%?

They are definitely favored to have enough cold for sufficient snow making but there is definitely an unignorable chance that it doesn't work out. That's the gamble. Even if it's only like 1 out of 5 that is a pretty decent shot at screwing their chance. 

Hopefully it's one of those pretty cold Niña Novembers like 2007 or 2008. Then they really won't have to sweat it. 

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