Winter 2016-17 discussion

[packbacker]

Not really sold on a BN winter for the SE. Looks like Midwest being BN is very likely, not really going out on a limb with that though.

The global ensembles and a couple of the seasonal models are showing a NE PAC low for Nov. Went back and looked at all the weak ninos that had this for Nov. Dec was a mess, but Jan-Mar was BN for bulk of conus even with the displaced PAC high.

[Met1985]

35 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The AO is always solid negative until we get to winter.  Then it shoots triple bogey after triple after triple....

Lol well you have a good point.

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Not really sold on a BN winter for the SE. Looks like Midwest being BN is very likely, not really going out on a limb with that though.

The global ensembles and a couple of the seasonal models are showing a NE PAC low for Nov. Went back and looked at all the weak ninos that had this for Nov. Dec was a mess, but Jan-Mar was BN for bulk of conus even with the displaced PAC high.

Thanks pack for the info. I mean one would trust an above normal winter right? We have to come out of this slump sometime. The NAO has to show up sometime right? I just don't see a font loaded winter myself.  We have a lot of work to do on the pattern.

[packbacker]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Thanks pack for the info. I mean one would trust an above normal winter UT shoot we have to shoot out of this slump sometime. The NAO has to show up sometime right? I just don't see a font loaded winter myself.  We have a lot of work to do on the pattern.
 

Well in the past 20 winters the SE has been BN for 6 and AN for 14. I am putting 13/14 on the BN list even though technically it was neutral. Interesting the BN winters come in pairs and every 4-5 years.

I bet if I had gone back 10 more spanning 30 years I would have only added 1 or 2 more for BN.

[NWNC2015]

CPC outlook now out to January...below normal precip and above normal temps. Wetter and better though for Great Lakes, Montana and Alaska. 

[Met1985]

7 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

https://news.duke-energy.com/releases/piedmont-natural-gas-issues-annual-winter-forecast;-advises-customers-of-colder-weather-higher-bills

So Piedmont Natural Gas's Heating Outlook came and looks interesting. 

That's funny because most winter outlooks iv seen have been for above average temps.

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, SimeonNC said:

Other than NOAA which only bases forecasts on the ENSO and a few other outlooks, the talk all over the other forums has been about a potentially BN winter for the east coast. Personally, I doubt that the forecasts calling for AN will verify.

I'm on the fence really. It seems like after this horrific year we have had and at least in the mountains we have not really seen a good winter in the last 4 to 5 years. Maybe 1 good winter we have had since the 2011/2012 year. I'm just watching and weighting currently. 

[Met1985]

Here is a good read from the NE camp.

http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2016/10/24/2016-2017-winter-outlook-by-vencore-weather

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, SimeonNC said:

Yeah but in hindsight, the set up going into last year was a lot worse than it is now. I'm confident that this winter, especially the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will not end up torching like it did last year.

Yes things are much different.  It does look like big changes on the way for next month hopefullystarting a cooling trend.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

1 hour ago, SimeonNC said:

Yeah but in hindsight, the set up going into last year was a lot worse than it is now. I'm confident that this winter, especially the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will not end up torching like it did last year.

Typically, the La-Nina winters feature a south-east ridge which doesn't bode well for winter weather lovers, However, this year is a weak Nina to negative neutral year. This might just upset the apple cart, so to speak. I believe we will have our share of cold shots and the ridge will flex its muscles from time to time as well. Overall, I see a much different winter than last year with a return to more common conditions. I have lived here for 51 years and have never been shut out in the accumulating snowfall game. So, we will get snow. Question is.... how much? If I would have to place my bets now, I would have to go with a normal winter and typical snowfall results. The cold shots and the warm periods should off-set each other. Much better winter than last year. Now, if the current warm anomalies continue in the gulf of Alaska, looks for more in the way of cold in the eastern US. Just my 2 cents worth.... 

[FallsLake]

Incredible snow increase over Siberia during the past month. Lets hope good things can come from it.

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

 

[Met1985]

15 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Incredible snow increase over Siberia during the past month. Lets hope good things can come from it.

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

 

Yeah I commented yesterday that DT had some good info in my opinion on the SAI in the main thread. 

[nrgjeff]

LOL Piedmont Gas, colder than last year is an easy call! Vencore has a solid Pacific analysis from the northern Pac to the tropics. However the AO is a shorter-term tool good for 2-4 weeks and SSAI is worthless without pressure. Solar cycle may need another year, but yes that could be the next cluster of colder SE winters.

I like a turn colder than normal for Dec-Jan on northwest flow. Secondary SER pattern may be more frequent Feb-March. First, debate continues regarding November. I see too much residual warmth; a prolific central US ridge occasionally bleeding east; and, a screaming zonal jet in the Pacific. Below the mountains nothing good happens until mid-Dec anyway. Might as well stay warm in the Southeast.

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

LOL Piedmont Gas, colder than last year is an easy call! Vencore has a solid Pacific analysis from the northern Pac to the tropics. However the AO is a shorter-term tool good for 2-4 weeks and SSAI is worthless without pressure. Solar cycle may need another year, but yes that could be the next cluster of colder SE winters.

I like a turn colder than normal for Dec-Jan on northwest flow. Secondary SER pattern may be more frequent Feb-March. First, debate continues regarding November. I see too much residual warmth; a prolific central US ridge occasionally bleeding east; and, a screaming zonal jet in the Pacific. Below the mountains nothing good happens until mid-Dec anyway. Might as well stay warm in the Southeast.

Again always solid posts from you. 

[packbacker]

Latest weeklies essentially look like this for the month of Nov into Dec.  Interesting to see if they verify...you roll these analogs forward it would make lots in the Midwest/east happy.

 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

46 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Latest weeklies essentially look like this for the month of Nov into Dec.  Interesting to see if they verify...you roll these analogs forward it would make lots in the Midwest/east happy.

 

That's nearly identical to what happened in 2010-2011, no? Although, the switch happened in later November, but it was an for December/Jan. 

[packbacker]

33 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

That's nearly identical to what happened in 2010-2011, no? Although, the switch happened in later November, but it was an for December/Jan. 

10/11 Dec/Jan was a more traditional blocky Nina pattern with an aleutian ridge.  This is more nino look with that aleutian low but hopefully come Dec/Jan we move to a 10/11 look...if you roll the same analogs forward that is what you get.  This upcoming progged pattern should transition to a more Nina look, I would think. 

[JoMo]

1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Latest weeklies essentially look like this for the month of Nov into Dec.  Interesting to see if they verify...you roll these analogs forward it would make lots in the Midwest/east happy.

I'd take 1983-1984 or 1995-1996. Looks like winter got off to an early start both sets of years in my area and ended in early Feb. What happened in your neck of the woods?

[downeastnc]

53 minutes ago, JoMo said:

I'd take 1983-1984 or 1995-1996. Looks like winter got off to an early start both sets of years in my area and ended in early Feb. What happened in your neck of the woods?

They both sucked pretty hard in NC outside of the mts, maybe a few fringe events but both of those winters were meh, with below normal snowfall I think.

[FallsLake]

7 hours ago, downeastnc said:

They both sucked pretty hard in NC outside of the mts, maybe a few fringe events but both of those winters were meh, with below normal snowfall I think.

95/95 was a good year for central and western NC. There were three events highlighted by the below. I was in Wake Forest at the time and had 6" of sleet. It stayed very cold for a week after and then had a significant ice storm. February had anther event that gave me 4" of snow. I would take that year again in a heart beat.

 

[downeastnc]

2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

95/95 was a good year for central and western NC. There were three events highlighted by the below. I was in Wake Forest at the time and had 6" of sleet. It stayed very cold for a week after and then had a significant ice storm. February had anther event that gave me 4" of snow. I would take that year again in a heart beat.

 

i forgot about that lol, was nothing here but rain....

[packbacker]

9 hours ago, JoMo said:

I'd take 1983-1984 or 1995-1996. Looks like winter got off to an early start both sets of years in my area and ended in early Feb. What happened in your neck of the woods?

96 was epic here.  84 I was in Winston-Salem and we had a nice event in early Feb.  Would take my chances with either.   

[Brick Tamland]

I'd take a 2010-2011 or a 1995-1996 repeat in a heartbeat. Heck, give me one huge Carolina Crusher and call it a winter.

[pcbjr]

Allan has a well considered write-up/forecast:

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/research/Winter2016-17Forecast.pdf

[FallsLake]

2 hours ago, pcbjr said:

Allan has a well considered write-up/forecast:

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/research/Winter2016-17Forecast.pdf

Thanks for posting Allan's forecast. The below December would be great. Even the normal to slightly below January can easily still produce winter storms; as average temps are at their lowest. 

[pcbjr]

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Thanks for posting Allan's forecast. The below December would be great. Even the normal to slightly below January can easily still produce winter storms; as average temps are at their lowest. 

Of course!

Doesn't do me much good in north FL - but then, other than the 1980's, a "winter" here only happens every 50 years or so.

I'm rootin' for y'all up "north"!

[Cold Rain]

Larry Cosgrove's winter forecast is out.  Basically, he has Dec and Jan above normal temps and below normal precip for most of the SE.  Feb turns colder and wetter, especially the latter half of the month, as well as March, due to strong blocking.  Has most of us basically at normal or slightly than normal snowfall.  In the "what could go wrong" category, the injection of a tropical cyclone into the pattern could influence blocking and get it going earlier than he's forecasting.  That would be beneficial to us.  Other than that, it looks pretty ho hum, with another late start to winter being forecast.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Larry Cosgrove's winter forecast is out.  Basically, he has Dec and Jan above normal temps and below normal precip for most of the SE.  Feb turns colder and wetter, especially the latter half of the month, as well as March, due to strong blocking.  Has most of us basically at normal or slightly than normal snowfall.  In the "what could go wrong" category, the injection of a tropical cyclone into the pattern could influence blocking and get it going earlier than he's forecasting.  That would be beneficial to us.  Other than that, it looks pretty ho hum, with another late start to winter being forecast.

So basically we are stuck in the same freaking pattern we've been in since May for at least another 3 months. Unbelievable.

[FallsLake]

19 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

So basically we are stuck in the same freaking pattern we've been in since May for at least another 3 months. Unbelievable.

That's if you believe his forecast. He is opposite to many others by forecasting a backend winter. The only nod I can give is we've been seeing backend winters for the past few years. So as others have said, it's wise to go with persistence until you see a change.   

[packbacker]

8 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

That's if you believe his forecast. He is opposite to many others by forecasting a backend winter. The only nod I can give is we've been seeing backend winters for the past few years. So as others have said, it's wise to go with persistence until you see a change.   

I didn't read everything but saw he mentioned 2012 and saw the backend.  Any cold winter month(s) would be nice.