FallsLake Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Gamecock said: Im a first time poster. I wouldn't say winter is over. For me the disappointment continues because I want to have the perfect setup for the holidays, especially 24th (birthday) and 25th. I know being from SC, and now in NC, the chances are very small, but I have seen snow or ice 3 times on 23rd (early 80s, 1989, and 1992 or 3), once on 26th (2010), and once on 27th (1980). I digress....lol. Welcome aboard! Winter storms this time of year are the best, but I would say our only hope right now is possible ice events in CAD areas. The last week of this month may not even allow chances of ice. We need the overall pattern to change; which many think we'll have to wait until January (or worse until February). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 hours ago, SnowDeac said: Check out the Jackson Hole webcams if you want some serious jealousy. Over 190" already this season, and still pouring. It also happens to be my favorite place in the country, and I'm scrambling to see how I can afford to get out there this year without breaking the bank. I had Jackson Hole pegged for snow this winter...maybe that's one thing I'll get right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamecock Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Think Snow!Sent from my SM-T230NU using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 50 minutes ago, FallsLake said: It's not over. I don't know where you got that idea from. 18z GFS Day 16: Look at all that blocking over the lower 48! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Look at all that blocking over the lower 48! and Canada..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 hours ago, Met1985 said: That looks a lot like hear. At least the terrain. Is this Montana or Wyoming ? That's jackson hole today. You guys hang tough. Look at bright side well end up below normal for Dec. I read psu hoffman the other day talking jan 2000 was top analog. Forgot what he was even looking at. Anyway we caught a 10 to 14 day break inside a horrendous mid winter pattern. So knock on wood well catch another small window of opportunity sometime in Jan maybe Feb. Least we aren't breaking out in sweats runing the AC like last Holliday season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain Dew Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 10 hours ago, NCSNOW said: I'll take it. Hey if any of you guys follow weber he has a nice write up on Dec 15,1930 storm. Good ole days. Don't think Ive ever seen a storm affet our state as widespread as that one. 2 feet. 7 hours ago, tonysc said: Ahh but many of us in SC would only have to go back to Feb. 1973 for 2 feet. I was there, and it was great. I was lucky enough to live right under this bubble of 22 inches, it was mind blowing. Snowflakes were 4-6 inches across falling from the sky, thundersnow, and being trapped in the high school cafeteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 It can't stay endlessly cold in the South! We don't live in MN! This is just a "relaxation " period! Mid January - beginning of Feb, will be great! We get the -AO and +PNA as the Nina continues to fade. There's gonna be coast to coast snowpack from a line roughly N Cali to Nebraska to Jersey and points North. That should temper the torches, I suppose! Hell, it's been snowing and sleeting in Seattle and Portland, off and on for about 2 weeks it seems! Snow is almost as rare for them as snow in Carrollton!!? I'm really happy for them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 What do the newest models say about the Monday/Tuesday threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: What do the newest models say about the Monday/Tuesday threat? The euro is the most bullish (see packs post from ~1pm). GFS shows the potential but not there at the moment. (so)There's definitely a chance and we need to keep monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Looks like another month of AN for the SE. With the ups and the downs the next 7 days we should end the last week of Dec AN to finish Dec AN. The streak has to break eventually. Interesting seeing the BN temps in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looks like another month of AN for the SE. With the ups and the downs the next 7 days we should end the last week of Dec AN to finish Dec AN. The streak has to break eventually. Interesting seeing the BN temps in the Atlantic. Looks about right, I figured 1-4 AN would probably be a victory considering where our climate has been and is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 We want end Dec above normal RDU and GSO. Still want matter in the big picture unless we see snow. Same could always be said for any DJF. They all can all be BN, but it's the winter precip events we all use as a ruler when grading out winters at the end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 11 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: We want end Dec above normal RDU and GSO. Still want matter in the big picture unless we see snow. Same could always be said for any DJF. They all can all be BN, but it's the winter precip events we all use as a ruler when grading out winters at the end of the season. Yep...for central NC we just need to fluke something to call it a winter. All end to end cold does is aggravate us by watching everyone else score. EPS weeklies flip mid Jan, shows a SE ridge though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Great post by Bob in MA thread, my thoughts exactly. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49363-december-medlong-range-discussion-part-2/?page=14#comment-4352856 But even with that I think we can fluke a snow event even in crap pattern. Was the point of my post yesterday. The three plots below were pretty crap patterns and we had some minor snow events out of...I thought RDU would do 1-2" this winter, still seems reasonable. I think the mountains will end up doing OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Yea be nice for the pig ridge to take a hiatis. Need EC trough and the pac has to get straightened out for that to happen. This will help illustrate a point. If we did a survey of the top year anyone in se expierenced. The top 2 answers would be 2000 and 1993. 2000 had the greatest 10 day stretch of winter weather in central NC History or atleast since I've been alive. March 93 was the superstorm/Blizzard. I was in school in the mtns that winter. Both winters,espeacilly 1993 flat out sucked from a winter weather standpoint. 93 in Cullowhee had a mid to late Feb storm, first of season if I remeber correctly and then the weekend of the Acc men's basketball tourney the superstorm. It was a horrible winter up till then. 2000 wasn't much better till 3rd week of Jan, then after the big 2 week run and it was a run let me tell you, didn't see the bare ground for over 2 weeks, that was it. In the SE that's usually how it happens. You get the goods all during one time span during the 90 day course of winter. Never wall to wall, except the once every 25 year 2009-2010 deal. Even those only last about 40 to 60 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 33 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Yea be nice for the pig ridge to take a hiatis. Need EC trough and the pac has to get straightened out for that to happen. This will help illustrate a point. If we did a survey of the top year anyone in se expierenced. The top 2 answers would be 2000 and 1993. 2000 had the greatest 10 day stretch of winter weather in central NC History or atleast since I've been alive. March 93 was the superstorm/Blizzard. I was in school in the mtns that winter. Both winters,espeacilly 1993 flat out sucked from a winter weather standpoint. 93 in Cullowhee had a mid to late Feb storm, first of season if I remeber correctly and then the weekend of the Acc men's basketball tourney the superstorm. It was a horrible winter up till then. 2000 wasn't much better till 3rd week of Jan, then after the big 2 week run and it was a run let me tell you, didn't see the bare ground for over 2 weeks, that was it. In the SE that's usually how it happens. You get the goods all during one time span during the 90 day course of winter. Never wall to wall, except the once every 25 year 2009-2010 deal. Even those only last about 40 to 60 days. You are correct Sir! Looks like we may have to wait at least until LATE January for any possible hope of a winter storm, aka (pattern change) UNLESS there is just an absolute fluke event! pattern looks horrible as far as the eye can see............... Them darn Japs are playing hard ball this winter (JMA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 I showed yesterdays day 16 GFS temp anomaly(very warm). Here's this mornings run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 If we could get another two week period like we did in Jan 2000, then it wouldn't matter how the rest of winter ends up. It does seem since then most of our winters have been all or nothing. Hard to remember the last time we had a winter with wall to wall storms every month from December through February. It seems if we do get anything now it comes in one or two week stretches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 14 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I showed yesterdays day 16 GFS temp anomaly(very warm). Here's this mornings run: I've seen worse looks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Seems like the idea of a minor event before any significant blocking develops is a good one. At least it's not a prolonged torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Not that it matters much in the middle of the month, but the CFS continues to get toastier every day for the eastern half of the U.S. Fab Feb's gonna have to come through again. I'd take a Feb 2014 repeat and call it a winter, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 I always thought that 2010 and 2011 was the best but how can we have winter of 2003 to 2004 back.... lol !! What happened to make what looks like wall to wall storms ?? Precipitation and Accumulation Map of the February 26-27, 2004 Winter Storm Precipitation and Accumulation Map of the February 17, 2004 Winter Storm Precipitation and Accumulation Map of the February 15-16, 2004 Winter Storm Precipitation and Accumulation Map of the February 12, 2004 Winter Storm Precipitation and Accumulation Map of the February 05-06, 2004 Winter Storm Precipitation and Accumulation Map of the February 02-03, 2004 Winter Storm Precipitation and Accumulation Map of the January 25-27, 2004 Winter Storm Precipitation and Accumulation Map of the January 9, 2004 Winter Storm 2003 Precipitation and Accumulation Map of the December 13-14, 2003 Winter Storm Precipitation and Accumulation Map of the December 4-5, 2003 Winter Storm< Source http://www.weather.gov/rah/events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 49 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I showed yesterdays day 16 GFS temp anomaly(very warm). Here's this mornings run: Wow that is a slight difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, cbmclean said: Wow that is a slight difference. what a difference a day makes.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Officially below avg for December here IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 People in the MA thread are lining up to jump off the cliff. I don't like where this is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: People in the MA thread are lining up to jump off the cliff. I don't like where this is going. I love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 People in the MA thread are lining up to jump off the cliff. I don't like where this is going.Good for business down south:) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 with all the snowstorms and cold coming in North of us you would think some of that would filter down into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, we are getting the cold now we need the moisture. same old thing when moisture arrives it warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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