Jonesing for a chase Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Good trends on 12z, more of a big cold push on all the models with tons of confluence in the NE to avoid too much cutting. Still plenty of time for it to go "poof", but it may have legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 More and more it looks like the Bering Sea ridging (-WPO) is progressing east into Alaska ridging (-EPO). So, I could see that keeping us in the game over the next few weeks with cold highs in place to our north and northwest, with snow cover up there as well. Overrunning threats with precip moving into low-level, shallow cold air...with some warmer cutters thrown in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: So should we start taking the threat next weekend seriously now that three models are on board? Let's wait until we get within 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: So should we start taking the threat next weekend seriously now that three models are on board? Take it seriously? Sure. However, we shouldn't expect any model to verify verbatim. The pattern is conducive for someone to score. At this long lead time, we should be playing close attention to the trends, and the ensembles. Right now, there is little to no run-to-run consistency. There's even some dramatic changes with the ensemble runs. I'm just watching and waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I'll start taking it seriously if it is still there on Tuesday/Wednesday. The local mets aren't even going to mention it until then, at the earliest. We all know how fickle the models are and NC winter weather.g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I'll start taking it seriously if it is still there on Tuesday/Wednesday. The local mets aren't even going to mention it until then, at the earliest. We all know how fickle the models are and NC winter weather.g As often as the models change, they would be foolish to mention it this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 At 180, Euro Ensemble Mean has a 1032+ high near the NY/Canadian border. That's a strong high for an ensemble mean at hr180. Has damming signature and good storm/precip signal moving into the shallow cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, griteater said: More and more it looks like the Bering Sea ridging (-WPO) is progressing east into Alaska ridging (-EPO). So, I could see that keeping us in the game over the next few weeks with cold highs in place to our north and northwest, with snow cover up there as well. Overrunning threats with precip moving into low-level, shallow cold air...with some warmer cutters thrown in there too. The EPO is a game changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 9 minutes ago, griteater said: At 180, Euro Ensemble Mean has a 1032+ high near the NY/Canadian border. That's a strong high for an ensemble mean at hr180. Has damming signature and good storm/precip signal moving into the shallow cold air 24 at CLT in the frame that drops the most precip on that OP with low 20s N&W.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just a few thoughts on that OP Euro run... It looks like it drives the ZR line down south of Columbia. It's pretty rare that Columbia sees freezing rain simultaneously with Charlotte. I do wonder if over time, it trends warmer for SC or if we end up with a more sleety solution. That of course is taking a Day 7+ model at its word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Anybody got storm total qpf from the Euro for next weekend? Thanks, TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, tarheelwx said: Anybody got storm total qpf from the Euro for next weekend? Thanks, TW .5-.7 almost region wide(western carolinas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 What would RDU be looking at in this setup. Sorry I dont have access to Euro maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 hours ago, griteater said: More and more it looks like the Bering Sea ridging (-WPO) is progressing east into Alaska ridging (-EPO). So, I could see that keeping us in the game over the next few weeks with cold highs in place to our north and northwest, with snow cover up there as well. Overrunning threats with precip moving into low-level, shallow cold air...with some warmer cutters thrown in there too. Thanks for the play by play Grit. No matter how the mood of the Board swings day by day, if you're posting and running PBP I know things are not that bad. From a completely non-scientific point of view, this is December 9 and things seem to be going great! Meteorological winter just started and we're having semi-serious fantasy storms pop up here and there in the medium range, with Arctic highs pushing in from time to time. Don't know what else we could serious ask for in the SE at this point. This could all go to crud next month, but I have to think what we've seeing now can't be a bad thing in regard to the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Thanks Niner. Another good GFS run here on the 18z with the cold air setup. Big bowl trough over the U.S. with sfc highs to our northwest at 159-162....some light precip trying to break out across the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Looking kind of northern stream dominant this run, which is a good sign to me. Some light overrunning snow in N AR, N TN, S VA, N NC 168-171. Big High over the upper midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 What would RDU be looking at in this setup. Sorry I dont have access to Euro maps0.25" of snow, ensemble mean is 0.5" with 13/50 ensemble members with snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I've got to head out, but hard to say how much cold will be left when the west coast trough kicks out...but overall liked the look with the cold dome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 18z still showing our 12/17 possibility. like that look at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 18z GFS is a weenie run for MBY, area around the mouth of the Chesapeake bay gets 4-6" next Friday. But it's D7 op GFS so there is that... I still believe I'll see at least mood flakes by the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 41 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: 18z still showing our 12/17 possibility. like that look at this range. Yeah, its hanging on, temps look good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 2 hours ago, Queencitywx said: .5-.7 almost region wide(western carolinas) I think it probably overdone hard to get a lot of precip in cold dry air in the low 20s. Had this problem last year in the high country 24hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KENW0728 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 New to the region--Acworth GA from SE Wisconsin. Winter weather isn't quite the same any longer--Im ok with that! Will try my best to sit back and learn what I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, KENW0728 said: New to the region--Acworth GA from SE Wisconsin. Winter weather isn't quite the same any longer--Im ok with that! Will try my best to sit back and learn what I can. When I was a southern spy up north, spent a lot of time in Fontana and around Lake Geneva - where I'd park my car on the lake in the winter - not something us folks down here have ever experienced Welcome aboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The 2m temps look so different it is laughable. This run is a step in the wrong direction in every way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Not enough cold press on the GFS. That's a deal breaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Canadian is similar. Not cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Canadian is similar. Not cold enough Color me shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Models having a hard time even past 96 hours. Just look at the 500mb and 850mb maps of the NAM, CMC, and GFS at hour 84 even. Then compare GFS with previous run from hours 120-198, big differences. CMC much different from GFS. In short the main takeaway is we have cold nearby next week and moisture too, question is do they arrive at the right time or not? In my experience these cold domes tend to give models fit at extended ranges and they will begin resolving things inside 96 hours. I wouldn't take any one solution by any model seriously outside that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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