Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 15 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro Weeklies Week 2: Below normal temps over most of the country, especially the northern 1/2 Week 3: Below normal temps over most of the country except S Central and SW states. West AK Ridge. Weak east based -NAO Week 4: Cool in the east, Warm in the west. Mixed signals with -NAO, but low/trough over Alaska I thought they looked pretty sweet @ h5 for the whole run. Not perfect but it never is. Overall, any relaxation during all 46 days is very short lived. It's a BN east winter pattern in general. The -epo and nao keep cold close over overhead from mid Dec through mid Jan. The aleutian ridge breaks down fairly quickly (by the end of week 3). I'm not sure I buy that. That can be a stable feature that is hard to dislodge once it sets up camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I thought they looked pretty sweet @ h5 for the whole run. Not perfect but it never is. Overall, any relaxation during all 46 days is very short lived. It's a BN east winter pattern in general. The -epo and nao keep cold close over overhead from mid Dec through mid Jan. The aleutian ridge breaks down fairly quickly (by the end of week 3). I'm not sure I buy that. That can be a stable feature that is hard to dislodge once it sets up camp. Yeah Bob, the Euro Ensemble has been improving in recent runs. Would like to see that continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 1 hour ago, griteater said: Euro Weeklies Week 2: Below normal temps over most of the country, especially the northern 1/2 Week 3: Below normal temps over most of the country except S Central and SW states. West AK Ridge. Weak east based -NAO Week 4: Cool in the east, Warm in the west. Mixed signals with -NAO, but low/trough over Alaska Great stuff griteater ! thanks for posting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Round 1 of this rain event is falling apart and I see no signs of round 2 so it looks as if most of SC, NC, and GA will have to wait about 10 days for good rain if we even get it then. No surprise really. Maybe some places in the mountains get good rain, but other areas not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 17 minutes ago, jshetley said: Round 1 of this rain event is falling apart and I see no signs of round 2 so it looks as if most of SC, NC, and GA will have to wait about 10 days for good rain if we even get it then. No surprise really. Maybe some places in the mountains get good rain, but other areas not so much. What? Everything looks fine for you guys down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 47 minutes ago, jshetley said: Round 1 of this rain event is falling apart and I see no signs of round 2 so it looks as if most of SC, NC, and GA will have to wait about 10 days for good rain if we even get it then. No surprise really. Maybe some places in the mountains get good rain, but other areas not so much. What are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 What? Everything looks fine for you guys down there.Welcome to our world of events being canceled before the first band moves in. Shetley could be correct though regarding light amounts east of the mtns. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 2 hours ago, jshetley said: Round 1 of this rain event is falling apart and I see no signs of round 2 so it looks as if most of SC, NC, and GA will have to wait about 10 days for good rain if we even get it then. No surprise really. Maybe some places in the mountains get good rain, but other areas not so much. What? Do you ever get tired of being wrong James? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 the onset squirt of snow could wreak havoc on surface temps..if this were to over perform I don't believe it would go straight to rain like the GFS shows..I would think the Canadian would be right with a little ice for north-west NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 weather.com is saying ice for me, NWS Blacksburg added rain/snow keeping it simple for now. People on Facebook think its going to be a big one lol. This is NOT a snow setup IMO. But at least its in the 5 day forecast. my current thinking time log of events spotty snow/sleet showers (per right timing) and precip shunts to the south (lull) temps moderate and precip redevelops around Charlotte... precip lifts north with freezing rain northern mtns/foothills...*duration wildcard, (depends on how much if any snow/sleet is on the ground) precip becomes too heavy... all rain, it's a wash for majority/end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 BIG cold shot coming in about 10 days according to 12Z EURO.. its been showing something similar for a while now.. some -15 below average numbers in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Models going for the next significant storm around Dec7th-9th now but we should get a couple good rain chances in between then and now.That one might eventually carve out the trough and knock down the very high heights of the SE coast. The GFS has also been hinting at a PV split around Dec 12-14th lately placing it in west central Canada.Euro has a nice uptick in heat flux over 60N today at day 9-10 as well,most likely ridging building or about to build over the top. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 13 hours ago, NWNC2015 said: weather.com is saying ice for me, NWS Blacksburg added rain/snow keeping it simple for now. People on Facebook think its going to be a big one lol. This is NOT a snow setup IMO. But at least its in the 5 day forecast. my current thinking time log of events spotty snow/sleet showers (per right timing) and precip shunts to the south (lull) temps moderate and precip redevelops around Charlotte... precip lifts north with freezing rain northern mtns/foothills...*duration wildcard, (depends on how much if any snow/sleet is on the ground) precip becomes too heavy... all rain, it's a wash for majority/end. Thanks for the update! NWS anxiously awaits your input! I think they are hiring!! There's a new QT right there, hot pretzels, nachos, and hot dogs, 24-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 I'm just saying...if this ends up happening, NWNC is an absolute savage and I'm rockin' with him all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 18 minutes ago, Jonathan said: I'm just saying...if this ends up happening, NWNC is an absolute savage and I'm rockin' with him all winter. Started the fire thread within 10 days after Matthew because of pattern recognition. There wasn't even a drought here or in Watauga and it went to Severe with sig fires locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 My comments on 12z EURO... Start time around December 4th Rain inbound out of the south-west Evap cooling takes it from the mid 30s to low 30s....(CMC suggests 20s) Must longer if not all frozen duration now for areas in yellow The poop line is too close to call, only holding out hope because 5 days is plenty of time to cool a degree or two, but would think change to rain is inevitable here w/ lack of sig. cold air source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 Surprised no one from Georgia commented on the 12z GFS...if it came quicker like shown with perfect timing...1-2" for several counties in north GA. Temps are marg tho...and would take a degree or two of evap cooling...likely some quick onset mix to rain but nonetheless not all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 IMO, It wouldn't take much of a trend for CAD regions to see ice on Sunday. If the GFS depiction is close to accurate surface temps would be a good bit colder than what it's currently showing. Something to watch at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 0z coming in a tick colder...not all snow but those areas need to watch out for wintry precip because of cold dry air near the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 0Z EPS has us at or below normal for the next 13 days after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... as of 430 am EST Wednesday... The focus during this period will be on a southern latitude system originating from a closed upper low over Mexico. There remain significant differences in how this system will evolve with the GFS still slow to bring the parent system out of Mexico, but now on board with what the European model (ecmwf) has been showing for several days, namely a northern stream system traversing the region Sunday into Monday. Models have been trending toward a weaker closed low and greater potential for northern stream energy to pick up the system sooner, thus forecast trends lean toward the faster European model (ecmwf) solution. These changes will result in chance pops being introduced in the southwest part of the County Warning Area Saturday night/early Sunday, increasing to likely Sunday, but then decreasing quicker back to chance or less by Monday. P-type may be a concern early Sunday with surface temps hovering in the 29f to 32f range and 850mb temps struggling to rise above zero. This would especially be true for areas where the precipitation arrives late Saturday night/early Sunday. At any rate, especially per ECMWF, warm air will begin to surge northward during the day changing any frozen/freezing precipitation to liquid. The caveat may be the potential for an "in-situ" wedge to develop and keep the threat for winter precipitation in the area longer, quite common at this time of year, and something the models are poor at resolving. Uncertainty continues for the remainder of the period as the GFS still has the parent upper low coming out of Mexico and bringing another swath of precipitation across the southeast/mid-Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, while the European model (ecmwf) has moved the entire system out of the region, leaving dry weather in place beyond Monday night. Have nudged the forecast toward the preferred European model (ecmwf). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 48 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... as of 430 am EST Wednesday... The focus during this period will be on a southern latitude system originating from a closed upper low over Mexico. There remain significant differences in how this system will evolve with the GFS still slow to bring the parent system out of Mexico, but now on board with what the European model (ecmwf) has been showing for several days, namely a northern stream system traversing the region Sunday into Monday. Models have been trending toward a weaker closed low and greater potential for northern stream energy to pick up the system sooner, thus forecast trends lean toward the faster European model (ecmwf) solution. These changes will result in chance pops being introduced in the southwest part of the County Warning Area Saturday night/early Sunday, increasing to likely Sunday, but then decreasing quicker back to chance or less by Monday. P-type may be a concern early Sunday with surface temps hovering in the 29f to 32f range and 850mb temps struggling to rise above zero. This would especially be true for areas where the precipitation arrives late Saturday night/early Sunday. At any rate, especially per ECMWF, warm air will begin to surge northward during the day changing any frozen/freezing precipitation to liquid. The caveat may be the potential for an "in-situ" wedge to develop and keep the threat for winter precipitation in the area longer, quite common at this time of year, and something the models are poor at resolving. Uncertainty continues for the remainder of the period as the GFS still has the parent upper low coming out of Mexico and bringing another swath of precipitation across the southeast/mid-Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, while the European model (ecmwf) has moved the entire system out of the region, leaving dry weather in place beyond Monday night. Have nudged the forecast toward the preferred European model (ecmwf). Looking at the latest NAM and there is some potential; especially mountain areas. Not excited about any big surprises but it will be interesting to see if temps continue to get pushed back as we get closer to the event. I can imagine a situation where the CAD is stronger and there ends up being stations staying in the upper 30s with rain. And maybe some areas starting as some light sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Right on Que: Met winter stats tommorrow and we are getting ready to put a long string of days together Below Normal in the temp department (minus a midnight high temp at 12:00 a.m.). Throw in first wide spread winter precip novelity event of the year Sat night into Sunday and we are off to the races the best we've started out in half a decade+. Take the hand we are being dealt and run with it/cash in. Agree with rays weather center, beleive we get some vodka cold mid -late next week. I also think your going to see the northern stream assert itself and be the heavy hand which will bennefit the upslope regions in Dec and give me alot of cold /dry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 7 hours ago, NCSNOW said: Right on Que: Met winter stats tommorrow and we are getting ready to put a long string of days together Below Normal in the temp department (minus a midnight high temp at 12:00 a.m.). Throw in first wide spread winter precip novelity event of the year Sat night into Sunday and we are off to the races the best we've started out in half a decade+. Take the hand we are being dealt and run with it/cash in. Agree with rays weather center, beleive we get some vodka cold mid -late next week. I also think your going to see the northern stream assert itself and be the heavy hand which will bennefit the upslope regions in Dec and give me alot of cold /dry here. lol Where do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 How sweet it is to see this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 39 minutes ago, Jon said: How sweet it is to see this But the CanSIPS said torch?! Lol. It does look really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 1 hour ago, jburns said: lol Where do you live? Where do you want to start? wilkesboro? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 1 hour ago, Jon said: How sweet it is to see this That is a welcome change from a few weeks ago when it was wall to wall top to bottom red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 It'a Happening ! http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/11/30/climatologist-dr-roger-pielke-sr-i-cannot-recall-last-time-i-have-seen-such-a-cold-anomaly-forecast-across-almost-entire-usa/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 2 hours ago, jburns said: lol Where do you live? Jburnsville. We moved back in the spring, Flinthill/ Sophia. We had to increase the square footage to help take care of my parents. Need to update my location. Also figured I'd jump in Wilkesboro corner,stir the pot and shake up the neigjborhood till the weather gets more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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