Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

[NWNC2015]

0z GFS was comical. I can buy mountain snow showers this time of year. But that kind of cold for South Florida already? 

 

[Cold Rain]

The crappy thing about Matthew is that now Falls will probably put this in the "big October storm means we're gonna have a crappy winter" bucket.

[pcbjr]

17 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

I have looked at and created every composite and analogue I can find with a tropical fall like we've had, and can come up with at best normal; most are above normal for temps for the SE Dec - Feb. Just sayin' (and I pray to be wrong)

 

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

The crappy thing about Matthew is that now Falls will probably put this in the "big October storm means we're gonna have a crappy winter" bucket.

It was too early; it has to be within one week of Halloween (before or after). So we're safe for now.

[Cold Rain]

37 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

It was too early; it has to be within one week of Halloween (before or after). So we're safe for now.

Whew, ok good!  I was getting worried about that.

[jshetley]

45 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

It was too early; it has to be within one week of Halloween (before or after). So we're safe for now.

Another thing. It did not produce any winter precip. Another reason we are safe so far.

[Jaguars]

Noticed from NWS that NAO, AO are both progged to go negative next couple weeks with a positive PNA.  But temps expected to be above if not well above in the eastern con us in the long range.  Seems like quite a disconnect at play here.

[FallsLake]

18 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

Noticed from NWS that NAO, AO are both progged to go negative next couple weeks with a positive PNA.  But temps expected to be above if not well above in the eastern con us in the long range.  Seems like quite a disconnect at play here.

It can take some time to feel the effects. Also those indices have greater affects once we're in the winter season.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

With 62.7" of precip over the last year, RDU is having its wettest 12 months in recorded history.

[Jaguars]

16 hours ago, FallsLake said:

It can take some time to feel the effects. Also those indices have greater affects once we're in the winter season.

Great points, thanks.

[NWNC2015]

it looks dry for the drought areas in NC. going to expand with no rain over the next week+

[packbacker]

Euro is interesting day 7.  Weak low coming up out of the gulf with a digging trough coming in with a Bermuda ridge.

Maybe models have been showing this past couple of days but first day looking at model since last week.

 

[metwannabe]

8 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Euro is interesting day 7.  Weak low coming up out of the gulf with a digging trough coming in with a Bermuda ridge.

Maybe models have been showing this past couple of days but first day looking at model since last week.

 

Models have actually been back and forth on something developing in the SW Caribbean or GOM for several days now, they had kind of "lost it" last couple of runs but Euro....oh boy.  Digging trough would no doubt pull tropical moisture north, no need to worry about it at this point I guess but certainly bears watching I think

[wncsnow]

Yea.. Euro shows a strong cutoff low setting up over the interior SE... possible severe threat Eastern SC, NC, VA

[Cold Rain]

This looks rainy to me:

[packbacker]

13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

This looks rainy to me:

Weather sure hasn't been boring for the SE past 6 weeks.  Big cutoff that rots away in the SE sure would help those drought areas.  Be a kick in teeth for eastern NC.  

[GaStorm]

Would be nice if that just sat in GA and didn't move east. You guys in NC and SC don't need any more headaches from flooding.

[downeastnc]

22 hours ago, packbacker said:

Weather sure hasn't been boring for the SE past 6 weeks.  Big cutoff that rots away in the SE sure would help those drought areas.  Be a kick in teeth for eastern NC.  

Give us 5 more days then it can rain away as long as its not more than a few inches the rivers will be able to handle it.....we will take a month of no rain though if possible....most rivers west of I-95 are back to normal and once we crest it drains off quickly....

[NWNC2015]

lets kill those bugs

[Met1985]

15 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

lets kill those bugs

Post like this are useless. 

[NWNC2015]

I would like a nice cold rain event. Interesting setup going into early November.

[downeastnc]

12Z GFS had the high IMBY of 42-44  Nov 2, pretty much has all of NC/SC  in the 40's for highs......

[LithiaWx]

15 hours ago, downeastnc said:

12Z GFS had the high IMBY of 42-44  Nov 2, pretty much has all of NC/SC  in the 40's for highs......

IMO the pattern that sets up over the next 4-6 weeks has a very strong possibility of repeating this winter season.  Let's pray for gulf lows and split flows. 

[downeastnc]

3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

IMO the pattern that sets up over the next 4-6 weeks has a very strong possibility of repeating this winter season.  Let's pray for gulf lows and split flows. 

Lets hope so....... the runs are all back and forth with the timing and strength of the cold air surges....looks real transient so probably going to be a lot of back and forth...some runs will show highs in the 40-50 others 60-70's all in all not bad fall weather, pretty typical actually..I don't mind that so much I prefer that to all warm anyways lol.....l

[NWNC2015]

encouraging for some cooler weather maybe round 2 for some MTN flakes in NOV 

[FallsLake]

6z GFS showing nice weather for Halloween; almost a CAD look with a high to the north but no overrunning precip.

[jshetley]

8 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

encouraging for some cooler weather maybe round 2 for some MTN flakes in NOV 

Hopefully it doesn't turn cold since it's useless without some precip. I'd like another November and December just like last year.

[FallsLake]

Maybe some patchy frost tomorrow night, and it's looking good for Halloween.

From RAH:

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

Quiet and fairly uneventful through mid week. A portion of the
surface ridge settles over central NC and modifies somewhat on Tue,
then is followed by a weak reinforcing boundary dropping southward
through NC Tue evening, and cool Canadian-rooted high pressure
nosing in from the north through Wed. This ridge axis will be capped
by an 850 mb anticyclone which will drift from the Mid South ESE
across the Southeast states through Tue night before shifting off
the coast late Wed. Further aloft, the mid levels will remain
subsident and warming as a large vortex centered over the Canadian
Maritimes and encompassing much of NE NOAM drifts NE and fills with
weakening flow over our region as a shortwave ridge builds in from
the west through Wed. All of this equates to little or no lift or
moisture and a generally weak surface flow. The only issue of
concern is the presence of the chilly ridge axis overhead Tue night
accompanied by clear skies and light winds, fostering radiational
cooling and bringing about the risk of patchy frost. Statistical
guidance has trended slightly cooler in spots, and with otherwise
favorable conditions, will introduce patchy fog over portions of
north central NC with lows in the upper 30s. Otherwise, expect
somewhat cool highs Tue/Wed in the mid-upper 60s. The surface ridge
will then shift east off the coast Wed night with a light return
flow helping to drive surface dewpoints back up through the 40s Wed
night. Lows in the mid-upper 40s with mostly clear skies. -GIH


 

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
As of 350 PM Monday...

Shortwave troughing will extend from south central Canada through
the Great Lakes to the Mid South early Thu, shifting eastward Thu
into Thu night. This will be accompanied by a strong surface low
crossing the Great Lakes (and culminating in a triple point low over
E PA and NJ) Thu through early Fri, and a trailing cold front that
will drop SE through NC Thu night/early Fri. We will briefly be in
the warm sector Thu, which will help drive up thicknesses to near or
just above normal with temps expected to warm up into the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Moisture depth does improve with PW reaching near 1.25",
with decent mid level DPVA and minor upper divergence, although
along-front mass convergence is apt to be small. Will retain chance
pops Thu afternoon, peaking Thu night before departing early Fri
morning. Projected instability appears minimal, and will keep it at
just showers for now. The active northern stream across the north
central and northeast CONUS/Mid-Atlantic persists through the rest
of the week, with the aforementioned trough strengthening to a
closed mid level low over MI Thu before shifting east and off the
Northeast coast by early Sat, and another closed low close on its
heels over the weekend. Another high pressure ridge builds into NC
and overhead through Sat morning before shifting to our SE Sat
afternoon in response to this fast flow. Expect minimal cooling Fri
as the cooler thicknesses barely work into NC, then a warmup back
into the 70s is anticipated Sat as we again get into return flow on
the back side of the departing surface ridge. The next front pushing
in from the north is likely to drop into or through NC on Sun or Sun
night, but this too should be moisture-starved. Expect highs to cool
back down a bit Sun and a bit more Mon, into the 65-70 range. The
way-too-early outlook for Halloween night appears to be dry, with
seasonable to slightly cooler than normal temps. -GIH

 

[Avdave]

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Maybe some patchy frost tomorrow night, and it's looking good for Halloween.

From RAH:

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

Quiet and fairly uneventful through mid week. A portion of the
surface ridge settles over central NC and modifies somewhat on Tue,
then is followed by a weak reinforcing boundary dropping southward
through NC Tue evening, and cool Canadian-rooted high pressure
nosing in from the north through Wed. This ridge axis will be capped
by an 850 mb anticyclone which will drift from the Mid South ESE
across the Southeast states through Tue night before shifting off
the coast late Wed. Further aloft, the mid levels will remain
subsident and warming as a large vortex centered over the Canadian
Maritimes and encompassing much of NE NOAM drifts NE and fills with
weakening flow over our region as a shortwave ridge builds in from
the west through Wed. All of this equates to little or no lift or
moisture and a generally weak surface flow. The only issue of
concern is the presence of the chilly ridge axis overhead Tue night
accompanied by clear skies and light winds, fostering radiational
cooling and bringing about the risk of patchy frost. Statistical
guidance has trended slightly cooler in spots, and with otherwise
favorable conditions, will introduce patchy fog over portions of
north central NC with lows in the upper 30s. Otherwise, expect
somewhat cool highs Tue/Wed in the mid-upper 60s. The surface ridge
will then shift east off the coast Wed night with a light return
flow helping to drive surface dewpoints back up through the 40s Wed
night. Lows in the mid-upper 40s with mostly clear skies. -GIH


 

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
As of 350 PM Monday...

Shortwave troughing will extend from south central Canada through
the Great Lakes to the Mid South early Thu, shifting eastward Thu
into Thu night. This will be accompanied by a strong surface low
crossing the Great Lakes (and culminating in a triple point low over
E PA and NJ) Thu through early Fri, and a trailing cold front that
will drop SE through NC Thu night/early Fri. We will briefly be in
the warm sector Thu, which will help drive up thicknesses to near or
just above normal with temps expected to warm up into the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Moisture depth does improve with PW reaching near 1.25",
with decent mid level DPVA and minor upper divergence, although
along-front mass convergence is apt to be small. Will retain chance
pops Thu afternoon, peaking Thu night before departing early Fri
morning. Projected instability appears minimal, and will keep it at
just showers for now. The active northern stream across the north
central and northeast CONUS/Mid-Atlantic persists through the rest
of the week, with the aforementioned trough strengthening to a
closed mid level low over MI Thu before shifting east and off the
Northeast coast by early Sat, and another closed low close on its
heels over the weekend. Another high pressure ridge builds into NC
and overhead through Sat morning before shifting to our SE Sat
afternoon in response to this fast flow. Expect minimal cooling Fri
as the cooler thicknesses barely work into NC, then a warmup back
into the 70s is anticipated Sat as we again get into return flow on
the back side of the departing surface ridge. The next front pushing
in from the north is likely to drop into or through NC on Sun or Sun
night, but this too should be moisture-starved. Expect highs to cool
back down a bit Sun and a bit more Mon, into the 65-70 range. The
way-too-early outlook for Halloween night appears to be dry, with
seasonable to slightly cooler than normal temps. -GIH

 

I sure as hell hope so for frost, more frost equals less allergy issues for me.   Would be nice to clean out my sinuses finally

[packbacker]

Well if Nov is going to finish BN it's going to have to be frigid the last half.  First 7-10 days looks solidly AN.   When will this end....