Ginx snewx Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 Wow what a great day BSE continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: We may be able to gin up some 80 degree dews with this epic pattern...record high gulf of Mexico temps..pumping all that moisture north..we'll see GFS wait......lol its raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: We may be able to gin up some 80 degree dews with this epic pattern...record high gulf of Mexico temps..pumping all that moisture north..we'll see lol...18z was even more extreme. Maybe your outdated, waterlogged Davis sensor will tickle 80F around 8am while the dew evaporates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: lol...18z was even more extreme. Maybe your outdated, waterlogged Davis sensor will tickle 80F around 8am while the dew evaporates. My personal dew record here was 78 2 summers ago. Seems like at least a 50/50 many of us break that in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: My personal dew record here was 78 2 summers ago. Seems like at least a 50/50 many of us break that in SNE Riveting stuff. The euro has dews of 75F+ too. I absolutely loathe this time of the year. Dog days FTL. Hopefully we can at least squeeze some moisture out of these PWATs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 45 minutes ago, dendrite said: Riveting stuff. The euro has dews of 75F+ too. I absolutely loathe this time of the year. Dog days FTL. Hopefully we can at least squeeze some moisture out of these PWATs. Not just for you Dendrite, but curious about the formatting of the NWS zone forecasts as for the first time this summer I've seen the "more humid" descriptor in the forecast. I'm not even sure I remember that in the past up here. Is that inserted in by the forecaster? Or is it that the forecast generator notes a large increase in Tds or once Td goes over a certain value it inserts the verbiage on its own? Wednesday Partly sunny with a chance of showers. More humid with highs in the lower 80s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy. Humid with lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Lower 80s to mid-60s at night... that's definitely a "more humid" pattern here if it doesn't get below the mid-60s at night, especially if the daytime is only lower 80s. In the June low-humidity pattern when we had highs in the lower 80s that led to like 39-45F type lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 By the way the models look right now, we might now have any system impact the eastern US coastline until September and those waters off the East Coast from 20N to 40N are warming, I mean warming off the charts. The potential energy for any type of hybrid storm system, another Sandy will feast on those waters and perhaps never become extratropical until after landfall over SNE, that is the danger we have with the pattern we are in, those SSTs will not cool off before a monster storm feasts off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 On 8/5/2016 at 7:00 PM, powderfreak said: This question is for anyone... but out of curiosity anyone know the return period for triple digit heat in some of the hotter New England stations? BDL/IJD/FIT/MHT/ASH/BOS/PVD/BTV/CON would be some of the hotter ASOS locations around the region... how often do they hit 100F+? I would think its not just this summer that doesn't want to breach triple digits...but more of most years don't want to breach triple digits. Is it like a once a decade thing or once every 5 years or even once every 20 years? If you're talking return interval being just occurrence during that summer, BDL is about every 5 years, MHT/ASH every 10, CON every 15, and once you get up around BTV it's every 40 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Not just for you Dendrite, but curious about the formatting of the NWS zone forecasts as for the first time this summer I've seen the "more humid" descriptor in the forecast. I'm not even sure I remember that in the past up here. Is that inserted in by the forecaster? Or is it that the forecast generator notes a large increase in Tds or once Td goes over a certain value it inserts the verbiage on its own? Wednesday Partly sunny with a chance of showers. More humid with highs in the lower 80s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy. Humid with lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Lower 80s to mid-60s at night... that's definitely a "more humid" pattern here if it doesn't get below the mid-60s at night, especially if the daytime is only lower 80s. In the June low-humidity pattern when we had highs in the lower 80s that led to like 39-45F type lows. It simply falls out of the grids. If it's anything like our formatter for the zones: "More humid" is triggered when the average dewpoint for the period is GTE 60, and the dewpoint changes by 10 degrees or more. Opposite would be true for "less humid" "Humid" remains in the forecast when the average dewpoint for the period is GTE 65. BTV is going from mid 50s dews Wednesday morning, to mid 60s by that afternoon, so the average is above 60 for the "Wednesday" period and changes by 10 degrees from the "Tuesday night" period. Then dews stay in the mid to upper 60s Wednesday night, keeping the "humid" tag around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 9 hours ago, dendrite said: Riveting stuff. The euro has dews of 75F+ too. I absolutely loathe this time of the year. Dog days FTL. Hopefully we can at least squeeze some moisture out of these PWATs. As feared..most of the rains miss SNE. Euro crushes GFS/GEFS again..However, your area down to maybe Hunch's area..look to score big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Probably overdone but the MET for Thu ASH 100 MHT 99 CON 99 with how things have been going with the local ASOSes it'll probably verify CON 98, ASH 96, MHT 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Probably overdone but the MET for Thu ASH 100 MHT 99 CON 99 with how things have been going with the local ASOSes it'll probably verify CON 98, ASH 96, MHT 95 The ASOSs in CT have been awfully toasty lately as well. They're always coming in a couple degrees warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Could the dry ground/ drought be contributing to the hotter temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The ASOSs in CT have been awfully toasty lately as well. They're always coming in a couple degrees warm. It's weird seeing almost every home station running cooler than the ASOS sites now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 1 minute ago, dendrite said: It's weird seeing almost every home station running cooler than the ASOS sites now. There have been days that (even with a broken fan) I'm like 5F cooler that KHFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Chamber on vacation until next week but returns with a vengeance 3rd 4th week of August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Not with trough in Midwest. Muggy pattern continues but not the high heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 9, 2016 Author Share Posted August 9, 2016 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Chamber on vacation until next week but returns with a vengeance 3rd 4th week of August Great sleeping weather last night. Got down to 52°. Nice break before the toasty weather...that seems to be the pattern this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Could the dry ground/ drought be contributing to the hotter temps? yup... short answer. longer answer is that modeled air mass is supposed to be modulating toward higher and higher DPs as we get closer to the weekend. 101 science teaches us, as we add water vapor to the atmosphere, that takes more energy to heat... which absorbs the kinetic temperature from the constituent gas that does not contain the H20. Which air mass has more potential energy: 110/34 Phoenix, or 94/76 St Louis dry soil also participates in modulating DP over a given area, too. this part I am less than certain 'how' but the science seems to suggest that regional dry biases means less moisture is available to evaporate off of both earth and vegetation, and that can be readily measured by dew point depressions. whatever the micro-physics aside, ... west Texas dry-lines happen because Gulf moisture and inland Texas land/soils, which are vast moisture sources compared to the arid/near desert like slope flow of western areas of the pan-handle and so forth, creates a very discrete boundary between said moisture source against the dry region ... anyway the reason i bring it up is that the heat would tend to be off-set by the advection into the area of higher and higher DPs. the other aspect (brought up by Iso' the other day) is that the ridge amplitude and the lower troposphere are out of phase/timing... the ridge amplifies and reaches an apex prior to the arrival of the 850 heated layers. that "might" spare the hottest potential of this ridge from being realized - just something to consider. the MOS products for some interior sites are note-worthy for thur/fri ,but i cannot help by wonder what would have happened if the mixing depth, air layers of later on this weekend were to have arrived on thur, at the time of the ridge amplitude (where/when diurnal thickness expansion could really balloon)... but to point, the flow pancakes some over the weekend ...but not enough to bring a stronger cool boundary through, and then the DPs arrive up under that hot 850s, and i'm wondering if the MOS is dimmed Ts a tad because they are accommodating the increased moisture. interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 11 hours ago, powderfreak said: Not just for you Dendrite, but curious about the formatting of the NWS zone forecasts as for the first time this summer I've seen the "more humid" descriptor in the forecast. I'm not even sure I remember that in the past up here. Is that inserted in by the forecaster? Or is it that the forecast generator notes a large increase in Tds or once Td goes over a certain value it inserts the verbiage on its own? Wednesday Partly sunny with a chance of showers. More humid with highs in the lower 80s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy. Humid with lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Lower 80s to mid-60s at night... that's definitely a "more humid" pattern here if it doesn't get below the mid-60s at night, especially if the daytime is only lower 80s. In the June low-humidity pattern when we had highs in the lower 80s that led to like 39-45F type lows. BTV must have just adopted them because I've seen "humid" and "less humid" in use for many years. I haven't noticed "more humid" in actual use before, so I'm a little jelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Could the dry ground/ drought be contributing to the hotter temps? Can't hurt, as per Tip's discussion. However, there's not all that much "ground" in New England outside of the urban areas. NNE is 80%+ forested and SNE probably above 50%, and the non-paved/developed "ground" is mostly crops or lawn. Unless it's been dry enough to shut down transpiration (and the trees I measure at 2-week intervals still showed growth between 7/23 and 8/6), there will be lots of moisture put into the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 it's also possible that heat lingers longer into next week than we think, too. may not be in extremeness ... but, the WAR look to the pattern is there. and in fact the 00z oper. Euro even shows heights rising on the Del Marva as ridging from deeper in the Atlantic presses/retrogrades west on D6 ... any front that attempts to press S-E of our area is going to get walled off i suspect. no model depiction i've seen is in any hurry to lower heights in the MA for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 10 hours ago, OceanStWx said: It simply falls out of the grids. If it's anything like our formatter for the zones: "More humid" is triggered when the average dewpoint for the period is GTE 60, and the dewpoint changes by 10 degrees or more. Opposite would be true for "less humid" "Humid" remains in the forecast when the average dewpoint for the period is GTE 65. BTV is going from mid 50s dews Wednesday morning, to mid 60s by that afternoon, so the average is above 60 for the "Wednesday" period and changes by 10 degrees from the "Tuesday night" period. Then dews stay in the mid to upper 60s Wednesday night, keeping the "humid" tag around. Thanks for the response...that makes sense. Are those parameters that can be set differently by NWS offices depending on where they are in the country? Ie. Mobile, Alabama doesn't have it show "Humid" until the daily average is over 70F or 75F dews, because mid-60s is actually a dry day there? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 12z Euro is blazing just outside of Boston Saturday, Upper 90s. Might be a tough forecast because of a back door cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Deluge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Euro keeps dews 70-76 from tomorrow thru middle of next week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Dew dee dew dew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 hopefully the rain holds this time and does not go poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 On 8/8/2016 at 3:06 PM, Typhoon Tip said: the lower troposphere is out of phase with the first half of this episodic ridging ...sure. it's another reason in a few way tracking 'big heat' (in my mind) has some intrinsic value over just warming versus summer cooling trends. parameters need to come together, and timing the llv thermal plumes with the heights ... typically, yeah, they'll come together, but this thing is wasting the first 2 and half or even three days of the ridge with mediocre mixing depth adiabats. although .. i will add that 21C at 850 will typically run the thermometer to 100 in a west wind and ample sun even in mid August. but i got/get what you meant/mean. it's essentially low impact heat ( < 'big') for a couple of days prior to whether some of that continental dragon breath can exhale or not. noticing the Euro even tries to accommodate it by subtle height re-burgeon around D6/7, where we end up with 20 C from DCA-BOS at that time. Yeah, agreed. Either way, it appears we're looking at a fairly torrid stretch (5-7 days) when coupling the ambient temperatures with dew points -- it will certainly feel like the temperature is near 100. I agree with your assessment beyond the short term and think the West Atlantic Ridge likely maintains itself in the means through late Aug/early Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 9, 2016 Author Share Posted August 9, 2016 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro keeps dews 70-76 from tomorrow thru middle of next week . Your backyard or airports? Let's see how that works out though...maybe higher dews through the weekend but I don't think we'll see them through mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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