Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
ORH_wxman

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are entering the big decline week when 2012 pulled ahead of all other years. This was during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. 

NSIDC extent

Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 

8-4......5.990.... 5.762.....+228k lead 

8-5......5.768

8-6......5.632

8-7......5.467

8-8......5.256

8-9......5.088

8-10....5.118

8-11....5.021

Wouldn't be shocked if we fell 300-400k behind by the end of that. There's some opportunity for catch up next week if that ridging shows up, but it does look like we'll slip solidly back into 2nd place.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Large 166k daily drop in NSIDC extent. We are entering the big decline week when 2012 pulled ahead of all other years. This was during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. 

NSIDC extent

 Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 

8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 

8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead

8-6......5.632

8-7......5.467

8-8......5.256

8-9......5.088

8-10....5.118

8-11....5.021

No let up in sight for the continuing record dipole pattern.

A773DF3C-DF92-4130-8BEF-C3FC57DA71D2.thumb.png.3457b780c1c8c2e386d23fd08780c149.png

E75AFBF8-B451-4D73-83B9-EB35F95992A4.thumb.png.f16814e41c80734329246a7037f99565.png

8257A75D-1252-4754-A6E7-4410CA87DB3A.png.dcb1a4e818b6d65c6d0478529e4c697c.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks cool over the central CAB the next few days at least -- before that small low gets nearly smashed into oblivion by the developing blocks and wave break over the Npac. The strong push of warm advection from the Russian side will keep this year in contention next week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2019 needs an average NSIDC daily decline rate of 98k next 5 days to be even with 2012 on the 11th.

NSIDC extent

  Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 

8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 

8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead

8-6......5.632......5.511......+121k lead

8-7......5.467

8-8......5.256

8-9......5.088

8-10....5.118

8-11....5.021

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Large 122k daily drop in NSIDC extent . 2019 needs an average daily decline rate of 92k next 4 days to remain even with 2012 by the 11th.

NSIDC extent

   Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 

8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 

8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead

8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead

8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead

 8-8......5.256

8-9......5.088

8-10....5.118

 8-11....5.021

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/6/2019 at 11:09 AM, csnavywx said:

It looks cool over the central CAB the next few days at least -- before that small low gets nearly smashed into oblivion by the developing blocks and wave break over the Npac. The strong push of warm advection from the Russian side will keep this year in contention next week.

You know ... not to make light of this ...but it's funny how we are proverbially bargaining with cumulus cloud shadows to prevent ice loss ... heh. 

But yeah, it's actually true - when we are teetering at the edge of the 2012  comparison...that closing margin does get sensitive to intra-weekly perturbations passing through the the domain. Fascinating actually -

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We've fallen 350k behind 2012 on area despite extent still being very close. We're probably going to need a big compaction pattern to keep extent in the running through the end of this month. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Areas losses in 2012 really slowed after August 10th. So I suspect 2019 will narrow the area gap in the next week to ten days. 2016 was behind this year and almost caught up to 2012 at the end of the season.

Why do we think 2019 will act more like 2016 than 2012 after August 10th?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why do we think 2019 will act more like 2016 than 2012 after August 10th?

 

the pattern does get worse starting friday

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the pattern does get worse starting friday

2016 looks like it had a lot more easy pickings after 8/10 for losses than this year. If parry stait melts out then that could add some to 2019 but 2016 looked easier:

 

IMG_3208.PNG

IMG_3209.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NSIDC extent held steady on August 8th. 2019 has fallen behind 2012 by 134 k during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. 2019 needs an average daily loss rate of 123k next few days to hold even with 2012 by the 11th. 

NSIDC extent

   Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 

8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 

8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead

8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead

8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead

 8-8......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind

8-9......5.088

8-10....5.118

 8-11....5.021

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do y'all have some access to extra-double, top -secret data that is different than this ...?  Cuz just from where I'm sitting... 2012 is getting it's ass handed to it - I dunno.. you tell me.  Yeah some 'gap' closure there but t-heh... that integral ain't supporting any kind of angst that we'll have trouble ousting 2012 in this 'race'

 

sea_ice_only.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do y'all have some access to extra-double, top -secret data that is different than this ...?  Cuz just from where I'm sitting... 2012 is getting it's ass handed to it - I dunno.. you tell me.  Yeah some 'gap' closer there but t-heh... that integral ain't supporting any kind of angst that we'll have trouble ousting 2012 in this 'race'

 

sea_ice_only.jpg

IMS is a deferent source than JAXA or NSIDC and it looks like that graph doesn't have any data beyond late July. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, bluewave said:

NSIDC extent held steady on August 8th. 2019 has fallen behind 2012 by 134 k during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. 2019 needs an average daily loss rate of 123k next few days to hold even with 2012 by the 11th. The weather will determine if 2019 can catch up with 2012 again. But this was the period when 2012 pulled ahead of all other years.

NSIDC extent

   Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 

8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 

8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead

8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead

8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead

 8-8......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind

8-9......5.088

8-10....5.118

 8-11....5.021

When I go to the NSIDC website I get different numbers that are higher for both years so I'm confused. I'm using the Charctic tool to view the data.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

IMS is a deferent source than JAXA or NSIDC and it looks like that graph doesn't have any data beyond late July. 

Well...be that as it may, the graphical presentation being perhaps a week behind other sources...

The dailies depict illustrations that clearly still put 2019 ahead of 2012 as of August 8 from the same source as that graph.   one, it will be interesting to see the graph update... heh.. But two, I've annotated and it's pretty clearly obvious ...if said graph is based upon anything resembling these [crude] cartoons...  it's just as likely to update still below the 2012 curve..

 

image.thumb.png.f627c122765e6320d59d62b938943ec4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, lookingnorth said:

When I go to the NSIDC website I get different numbers that are higher for both years so I'm confused. I'm using the Charctic tool to view the data.

That tool on NSIDC uses the 5 day running mean instead of daily values. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Large 131k daily drop on NSIDC extent. So 2019 is only 171k behind 2012. We are past the record breaking 2012 fall during the Great Arctic Cyclone. 2019 needs a 119k daily decline  rate next two days to pull back even with 2012 by the 11th.

The NSIDC charts use a five-day trailing average. The daily extent figures are found in the spreadsheet section under the chart.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/

NSIDC extent

   Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 

8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 

8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead

8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead

8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead

8-8......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind

8-9......5.088......5.259......-171k behind

8-10....5.118

8-11....5.021

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very large daily NSIDC decline of 166k puts 2019 back in a narrow lead over 2012 by +25k.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx

NSIDC extent

   Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 

8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 

8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead

 8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead

8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead

8-8......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind

8-9......5.088......5.259......-171k behind

 8-10....5.118......5.093......+25k ahead

8-11....5.021


 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

do you have area? the site i use hasn't updated in days

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Small daily rise in NSIDC extent of 19k. This puts 2019 behind 2012 by -92k as of the 11th.

NSIDC extent

   Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 

 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 

8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead

 8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead

 8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead

8-8......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind

8-9......5.088......5.259......-171k behind

 8-10....5.118......5.093......+25k ahead

 8-11....5.021......5.113.......-92k behind

8-12.....4.938

8-13.....4.889

8-14.....4.724

8-15.....4.679

8-16.....4.619

8-17.....4.545

8-18.....4.520

8-19.....4.405

8-20.....4.313

B6593FE3-6381-4A89-A817-FAEA891338EF.png.42e59fd36e8166e559806d51027b6096.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the Euro Weeklies are correct a new minimum is inevitable. Big signal for dipole pattern continuing throughout August

This is day 8-13, 5 day average. That's a strong signal for 8-13 day, 5-day average 

 

Screenshot_20190813-164644.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bluewave hasn't updated for today, so I'll mention that it looks like 2019 is having a bit of trouble falling below 5 million on the extent value.

NSIDC extent

Date.....2012......2019........2019 difference 

8-4.......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 

8-5.......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead

8-6.......5.632......5.510......+122k lead

8-7.......5.467......5.388......+79k lead

8-8.......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind

8-9.......5.088......5.259......-171k behind

8-10.....5.118......5.093......+25k ahead

8-11.....5.021......5.113.......-92k behind

8-12.....4.938......5.063.......-125k behind

8-13.....4.889

8-14.....4.724

8-15.....4.679

8-16.....4.619

8-17.....4.545

8-18.....4.520

8-19.....4.405

8-20.....4.313

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Free fall...

The vector of the current NSIDC graph has now fallen below all curves since 1998 like I ship headed for the open sea -

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Free fall...

The vector of the current NSIDC graph has now fallen below all curves since 1998 like I ship headed for the open sea -

Yeah feedbacks are kicking in hard. It’s like when all the ice melts in your cooler and the the water warms up quickly.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

97k daily decline for NSIDC extent. This places 2019 only 77k behind 2012 as of 8-13. Models indicate a continuation of the record breaking high pressure regime over the Arctic since May. Surface pressures are forecast to exceed 1040 mb around the Chukchi Sea region next 3-4 days. This would be at record levels for this time of year.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx

.............2012......2019

8-13.....4.889......4.966.....77k behind

8-14.....4.724

8-15.....4.679

8-16.....4.619

8-17.....4.545

8-18.....4.520

8-19.....4.405

8-20.....4.313

EEB00D27-F168-4AD0-9C0E-B3E0034521AF.thumb.png.496d9e989a3290b0f2a64a238847e435.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×