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ORH_wxman

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

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Ice has no agenda. It continues melt as the climate warms. The beauty of science is that you don’t have to believe in it for it to work.

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Just now, bluewave said:

Ice has no agenda. It continues melt as the climate warms. The beauty of science is that you don’t have to believe in it for it to work.

I believe in science and I believe that the climate is warming as a result of human influence and that ice coverage will continue to go down because of it. That doesn't change that showing data for only the last 40 years only is misleading, especially as the 70's were notoriously cold. 

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31 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

I hate charts with an agenda.

 

8-pic1-768x392.jpg

Why does it say "using unadjusted temperature dataset"? Is the temperature displayed on it? What am I missing?

And what agenda do you think the original charts had?

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16 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

I believe in science and I believe that the climate is warming as a result of human influence and that ice coverage will continue to go down because of it. That doesn't change that showing data for only the last 40 years only is misleading, especially as the 70's were notoriously cold. 

The longer reconstructions further back in time make the last 40 years even more exceptional. 

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The longer reconstructions further back in time make the last 40 years even more exceptional. 

These climate agenda arguments are so baffling to me, there's literally hard data from numerous sources/satellites that goes back decades to hundreds of years. 

But I guess in an age where anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers exist we shouldn't be too surprised.

Regardless, the climate will do what science intended whether you choose to remain ignorant or not. 

I kid you not there were tweets where people tried to dispute climate change by stating it snowed in Alberta last June. But mention record heat in Alaska/Europe happening now and you won't hear a peep. 

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He's not wrong that there were probably some pretty low ice extents in the late 1930s or 1940s akin to perhaps the late 1990s or early 2000s but that definitely doesn't matter in the larger picture. 

The best data starts in 1979 so that is the natural starting point for most ice related graphs. It's not some conspiracy. 

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14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

He's not wrong that there were probably some pretty low ice extents in the late 1930s or 1940s akin to perhaps the late 1990s or early 2000s but that definitely doesn't matter in the larger picture. 

The best data starts in 1979 so that is the natural starting point for most ice related graphs. It's not some conspiracy. 

Yeah, probably 6-7 million sq km for September extents. But nothing close to the historic drop in recent times.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850

First, there is no point in the past 150 years where sea ice extent is as small as it has been in recent years. Second, the rate of sea ice retreat in recent years is also unprecedented in the historical record. And, third, the natural fluctuations in sea ice over multiple decades are generally smaller than the year-to-year variability.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1146506078932230144?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

New study in

to model #Arctic sea ice volume since 1901: "The sea ice decline over the 1979-2010 period is pan-Arctic and 6 times larger than the net decline during the 1901-40 period."

B38D5A1D-54DA-4ED6-A91F-62A791D3CE6E.thumb.png.f29c30d5fb401f51c2c880d86f2d9ec3.png

 

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2019 has stolen the lead on NSIDC area, if very narrowly. Still trails a bit on extent. Chukchi, Beaufort, ESS and CAB are taking substantial hits at the moment.

2012 drops a bit slowly over the next 5 days before diving again, so there's a chance 2019 will stay in the lead for a little while.

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10 minutes ago, BillT said:

it seems as if many here WANT catastrophic warming......hoping the ice melts

If it's inevitable then when it happens does not matter. Nobody payed attention to Paul Beckwith's three-legged bar stool.

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10 hours ago, BillT said:

it seems as if many here WANT catastrophic warming......hoping the ice melts

I don't hope for catastrophic warming. But a record low extent makes it a more interesting season to track. I don't think there is some massive catastrophe that happens either if we break a record min. It didn't happen in 2012. We actually ended up rebounding in a big way the following season. 

Anyways, 2019 is off to a strong start in July so if we can build a couple hundred thousand lead on 2012, then we may have a chance. 2012's losses are so breathtaking later in the month and early August that we'll need to build up some more momentum. June didn't quite do the trick but if early July is hostile enough, maybe it can make up for it.  

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There has been a lot of losses in the basin via ice floating into 'hostile ' areas that have been open water since the start of melt season. The Heat already in these Ocean areas will continue to impact area/extent even if we lose the sun and , worse still, see the ice under low pressure forcings?

Any presence of ripples/waves increases the uptake in solar and reduces the amount of energy bounced back into space.

Mill pond calm and cloudy/cool is what we need but I do not think any of the weather models are offering up that?

It appears that all melt season the Arctic has been intent on spilling all of its cold south and accepting WAA after WAA. Now there is no cold left and the areas blighted by the polar plunges are warming via imports from their neighbours not so blighted?

The season may slow over the basin but I think the continental areas to the South will be amassing plenty heat waiting for the slightest opportunity to go dump it in the basin!

In a few weeks time we enter the 'bottom melt dominated' part of the season and we will see if the sub 100m floes do go at rapid speeds with their side melt taking most of their ice ( and warming the ice inside the floe from heat entering from the base/sides and , possibly, top)

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21 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if 2019 can hold the area lead over 2012 if the models are correct about the polar blocking weakening.

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/daily-data

https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47/status/1147128282225287170

D27B2300-4973-4DAE-BD94-677282A1D665.png.6f6918ae2bd0b16545afc8af7ea21fbf.png

 

 

I don't know, it seems the closer we get the more blocking starts to show up. The current warming, ice melt could even help enhance blocking. 

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Yes, there does seem to be a relaxation of the hostile pattern in the cards in a few days. It doesn't exactly look cool, but definitely better than what we have now.

In the meantime, area remains in freefall and will likely build up a sizable lead over the next few days. Volume is now at record lowest (as of the 1st). This year definitely has a real shot at the record. At the very least an easy 2nd or 3rd place.

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We have a pack that PIOMAS tells us is the 'least ice' at this time of the year. We have NSIDC telling us area is at an all time low for the date and NSIDC also tell us 'compactness' is also low.

Ice with water all around it is vulnerable with none of the environmental support of fellow ice floes.

With so much FY ice out there ,and all of a similar thickness, are we about to see a July 'Cliff' with no equal?

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JAXA extent hits rock bottom for the 7th.

That is both NSIDC and JAXA with us at rock bottom and the ESS is such a mess I think we will see continued high losses for a while yet?

Then we have Beaufort chewing on the ice that 'relaxed' into it from the C.A.B.

Interesting Times

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On 7/4/2019 at 12:02 PM, BillT said:

it seems as if many here WANT catastrophic warming......hoping the ice melts

Get over yourself. Sounds like you are triggered by ice melting for some reason. 

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On 7/3/2019 at 4:58 PM, SnoSki14 said:

These climate agenda arguments are so baffling to me, there's literally hard data from numerous sources/satellites that goes back decades to hundreds of years. 

But I guess in an age where anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers exist we shouldn't be too surprised.

Regardless, the climate will do what science intended whether you choose to remain ignorant or not. 

I kid you not there were tweets where people tried to dispute climate change by stating it snowed in Alberta last June. But mention record heat in Alaska/Europe happening now and you won't hear a peep. 

I would argue that the data doesn't go back hundreds of years, and that only remotely solid data only goes back 40 years. Automated systems for data gathering have really only widely been available for the past 20 years and economically feasible for mass distribution for the past 10 years. 

That said i'm not arguing at all against human caused global warming, just posting data that screams the sky is falling. My stance is that doing anything to try to affect the rate of warming at this point is a drop in the pond. All the green initiative here in the states is just nothing to what china and india are doing to the climate, and as Africa experiences a rapid and explosive industrialization over the next 50 years we will be even more negligible.  Money better spent would be on relocating people from areas that will either be flooded or protecting low lying areas as water levels rise.  

Additionally, what if we are wrong and there is some other forcing that is driving climate change? Then all of this time and money that could have been spent on preparing for the worst would have been wasted on trying to prevent it.

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How much ice volume do some folk want to see go before they accept that the past half century is way out there in terms of the last long period of time?

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Mercifully, it appears the pattern is breaking down for real this time, though there's some question on where that TPV sets up. If it's closer to the pole, then we could see a decent slowdown. If it's over towards the Laptev, then it won't provide all that much braking action as the CAB, Beaufort and Chukchi are exposed (and that front is very weak this year already).

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6 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Mercifully, it appears the pattern is breaking down for real this time, though there's some question on where that TPV sets up. If it's closer to the pole, then we could see a decent slowdown. If it's over towards the Laptev, then it won't provide all that much braking action as the CAB, Beaufort and Chukchi are exposed (and that front is very weak this year already).

The blocking and high pressure relaxation is coming just as 2019 edges ahead of 2012 for extent. But the thing that separated 2012 from the rest of the pack was the big storm and record late season decline. 

2019...8.345

2012...8.398

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If only we had the technology on a global scale to convert this additional OHC into usable energy. I am sure some think-tank is already working on it.

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Worldview looking worse and worse. Like 2012, the entire pack is riddled with extensive melt ponding, with no snow-covered areas left.

We never quite get rid of that -NAO either and that's going to be a bit of an issue in the next week for the CAB and Beaufort in particular. It's not the raging dipole or warmth we've had, but it isn't terribly great either.

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2019 jumps into the extent lead over 2012 with a major 247k drop as of July 9th.

2019....8.098

2012....8.174

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