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ORH_wxman

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was pretty obvious we weren't getting a 1995 minimum last year. The area data near the end of June did not support anything remotely close to that. I will post my prediction again this year. Here is last year's prediction:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48618-arctic-sea-ice-extent-area-and-volume/?do=findComment&comment=4953872

 

 

You should reread my initial post.

I never predicted the 2018 NSDIC northern hemisphere sea ice extent minimum would be greater than the 1995 minimum. I was pointing out how close the two years where at the time. For the date, there was a difference of.438 millions of square kilometers. If the then current trend line of recent daily losses continued, there was a small possibility, 2018 could be ahead of 1995 for the same date in the near future.

This was just interesting data to follow for the date, nothing more.

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On 6/6/2019 at 12:54 PM, forkyfork said:

does this low scoot out or rot in place?

4 days later forecasts are variable but most keep it going for quite some time - probably helping by preventing a classic dipole

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Area is beginning to stall quite noticeably the last 3-4 days. 2012 was starting to go absolutely nuclear at this point. 

Starting to become skeptical of a record. We'll need that trend to reverse sharply in the second half of the month. 

 

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NSIDC Central Arctic sea ice area is now the highest value in the data set for 6.10 with a daily value of 3,093,797 kilometers squared.

nDjbkCA.png

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Extent just fell below 2016 for a new record on this date.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1138471666630053888

As of June 10th, Arctic sea ice is now the lowest on record during the satellite era (1979-2019). The extent is typical for Jun 28th. As the basin scale, the Beaufort Sea ice is the big loser. It is already at a mid-August state!

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1137749983787012096

Unprecedented early #seaice loss from both Chukchi & Beaufort Seas north and west of Alaska. June 8th extent from 

is 1981-2010 median for Aug 01! Five lowest extents for this date are 2015 through 2019.
 
 
 

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13 minutes ago, Weatherdude88 said:

NSIDC Central Arctic sea ice area is now the highest value in the data set for 6.10 with a daily value of 3,093,797 kilometers squared.

nDjbkCA.png

Need to see the arctic basin as a whole if we want data that predicts the future this summer...so include ESS/Laptev/Beaufort and Chukchi in those numbers....you'll see that 2019 is 3rd lowest if we do that,

But there's been a recent slowdown in area loss that has seen it fall behind 2012...and it needs breathtaking losses to keep up with 2012 over the next 7-10 days. I don;'t see it happening. Today did see an acceleration again, so we'll see if that is the start of a June Cliff or not. The weather pattern doesn't look very conductive for monster losses. It looks like the Laptev and ESS could take a beating for several days, but then a vortex overtakes the arctic basin again.

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There have been significant sea ice area losses at lower latitudes of the arctic for the past 2 days (6.10 and 6.11). However, AMSR2 CAB and NSIDC CA ice area look robust. There may be a significant slow down in basin wide losses during July, when the more vulnerable areas of the ice pack have melted out.

B2ytMvp.png

zTcVksj.png

cJQFBPN.png 

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

keep praying

For 6.11.2019 NSIDC sea ice area for the (Beaufort + Central Arctic + Chukchi + East Siberian Sea +  Laptev Sea) added together gives us an area of:

2016 5,890,973 square kilometers
2012 5,962,622 square kilometers
2019 5,977,631 square kilometers

2019 is currently in 3rd place in NSIDC sea ice area for the above areas.

 

Not only is 2019 slightly ahead of 2012 and 2016 with respect to sea ice area. It also has sea ice positioned at higher latitudes within the inner CAB that will be more difficult to melt, compared with post 2007 melt seasons. Additionally, the upcoming weather pattern does not look like it is conducive for record arctic sea ice melt.
 

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21 hours ago, Fantom X said:

Greenland was very close to be entirely above freezing - wonder if that's ever happened before (in modern times)

 

This was the 2nd warmest on record in Greenland for June behind 2012.

https://earther.gizmodo.com/half-of-greenlands-surface-started-melting-this-week-w-1835483363

Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist with the Danish Meteorological Institute, told Earther that the weather station at the top of the ice sheet saw temperatures reach above freezing on Wednesday and they were headed that way again on Thursday. That puts them just a degree or so away from setting the all-time heat record for June, which is currently held by June 2012. 

The spike in temperatures has caused a spike in melt. Roughly 45 percent of the ice sheet surface has been melting. Normally, less than 10 percent of the ice sheet surface is melting at this time of year. According to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Wednesday set a daily record for the widest melt area on that date, with 275,000 square miles—an area bigger than Texas—of the ice sheet’s surface becoming a slushy, watery mess. Mottram said the much of the ice is likely to refreeze once the heat breaks, but it will be more primed to melt later in the season.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RasmusTonboe/status/1139504201615237120

got the difficult task of retrieving our oceanographic moorings and weather station on sea ice in North West Greenland this year. Rapid melt and sea ice with low permeability and few cracks leaves the melt water on top.

 

 

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On 6/10/2019 at 12:56 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Area is beginning to stall quite noticeably the last 3-4 days. 2012 was starting to go absolutely nuclear at this point. 

Starting to become skeptical of a record. We'll need that trend to reverse sharply in the second half of the month. 

 

You mean like this ...

https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/us/greenland-sudden-ice-melt-wxc/index.html

...course, it is CNN -

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For 6.14., NSIDC sea ice extent is now in 5th place with a value of 10.842 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 now has greater sea ice extent for the date than 2018, 2016, 2012, and 2010. There have now been 3 straight days of gains in the data set.

One more day of gains, or a loss of less than 27,000 kilometers squared, will put us in seventh place for 6.15.

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16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

how's area doing? 

Thanks for the question. NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area is in 3rd place for the date. Not shown on your above graph, 2019 has a 20,473 kilometers squared lead on 2007, and 2019 could fall to fourth place tomorrow.

While I believe area is a better indicator on the current melt season, there also remains the possibility certain regions that are being counted as open water flash back to life later on this season.

Let's not also forget the high latitude sea ice area inside the CAB.

76K9DE8.png

 

 

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looks like CAB area doesn't matter until later in the season. why did you remove the legends from that graph?

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16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

why did you remove the legends from that graph?

I did not remove any legends from the CAB ice area graph. If you check the link in my initial CAB post, you will see the link brings you to AMSR2 sea ice area for all different regions of the northern hemisphere cryosphere. There is one legend at the bottom for all the different regions in and around the arctic. I wanted to focus on the CAB, since that is the region historically, that contains significantly more ice than all other regions at the conclusion of melt season.

 

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notice how the bright green line is at the bottom around this timeframe yet it winds up along the top later in the season. what's the point of focusing on a region that's irrelevant right now?

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17 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

notice how the bright green line is at the bottom around this timeframe yet it winds up along the top later in the season. what's the point of focusing on a region that's irrelevant right now?

In previous northern hemisphere sea ice melting seasons, we have had years that start off with more sea ice extent and area than the previous melting season and end with a record low (2007). We also have seasons where we have low sea ice extent and / or area at maximum and end up not in the top 5 (2017). There are different dynamics and different weather patterns at certain points during the melt season, in all of these years. Perhaps we should not look at any any sea ice area or extent numbers during the melt season since they are all irrelevant?

Please provide scientific data, of peer reviewed literature to show CAB sea ice area is "irrelevant" during June of the melt season for the final minimum value. 

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NSIDC site has the extent at 10.77 and lowest on record for June 14th.

 

 

The northern hemisphere NSIDC daily value for 6.14 is 10.842 millions of kilometers squared. NSIDC uses a 5 day trailing mean. The 6.14 value is also the highest value in the past 5 days. The preceding 4 days bring the average down for the 5 day trailing mean. For that graph, they are adding the values on 6.10,6.11,6.12,6.13, and 6.14, then dividing by 5, to get the 10.77 millions of square kilometers. 

We have had 3 straight days of gains in the NSIDC sea ice extent data set. The daily value for NSIDC sea ice extent for 6.14 is the 5th lowest for the date.

 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/about-charctic-data/

 

 

 

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area drops + extent gains = lots of spread out janky ice which will result in an extent nosedive when it melts 

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15 hours ago, forkyfork said:

area drops + extent gains = lots of spread out janky ice which will result in an extent nosedive when it melts 

The Pacific side has gotten off to an especially rough start this year. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1140230023636541440

Sea ice extent in the Chukchi & Beaufort Seas near Alaska at record low level for mid-June. A storm this past week pushed broken #seaice back over previously open water in the Beaufort Sea, resulting in a slight increase in extent.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Pacific side has gotten off to an especially rough start this year. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1140230023636541440

Sea ice extent in the Chukchi & Beaufort Seas near Alaska at record low level for mid-June. A storm this past week pushed broken #seaice back over previously open water in the Beaufort Sea, resulting in a slight increase in extent.

extent dropped 91k today so that ice is starting to vanish

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46 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

extent dropped 91k today so that ice is starting to vanish

This is the first time since 2012 that we had such a hostile pattern from 05-15 to 6-14.

 

D9AF1324-B5F9-41FF-B2A0-F239FA7E760E.gif.3155948de0aa7c0cff727f6d55b1fd00.gif

76FBAA0F-8941-4F32-ACA6-C23C7B65A3C6.gif.1244a89aece6bd249232594e6887f4b0.gif

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For those who have not being paying close attention to either the denaturing of the pack this past 6 years, or the ice that has already exited Fram this melt season ,there may be a few surprises in the offing over the next 2 months?

We have not seen the basin under such forcings for a number of years but the ice is no longer what it was the last time we did see such.

I'm expecting a late June/July cliff in extent/area this year as we see 'new ice' blink out in large amounts opening up more area for the last of the peak insolation.

I get the feeling we will be challenging the lowest ice years come late Aug.....

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NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 7th lowest value for 6.17, with a value of 10.696 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018.

 

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Sea ice area continues to decline though. This means the ice is spreading out. As noted above this typically means extent is poised for a significant drop.

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