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ORH_wxman

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

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Late month update on area....how other years compare to 2017:

2016: -300k

2015: -190k

2014: +340k

2013: +50k

2012: -520k

2011: -330k

2010: -110k

2009: +410k

2008: +350k

2007: -320k

 

We are closest to 2013 right now, but when you look at the numbers, it doesn't necessarily that means where we will end up. You can see that 2008 still had pretty high area at this point (350k ahead of 2017 and 300k ahead of 2013), but much of it was vulnerable ice in the Laptev so it melted back quite a bit in August....whereas a year like 2013 had already melted out most of the vulnerable ice so it stalled and finished significantly higher than a year like 2008. The next closest year is 2010. I still think a finish close to 2010 is probably the most likely right now. That year finished at 3.07 million sq km for area....though really anything plus or minus 200k from that is fair game.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Late month update on area....how other years compare to 2017:

2016: -300k

2015: -190k

2014: +340k

2013: +50k

2012: -520k

2011: -330k

2010: -110k

2009: +410k

2008: +350k

2007: -320k

 

We are closest to 2013 right now, but when you look at the numbers, it doesn't necessarily that means where we will end up. You can see that 2008 still had pretty high area at this point (350k ahead of 2017 and 300k ahead of 2013), but much of it was vulnerable ice in the Laptev so it melted back quite a bit in August....whereas a year like 2013 had already melted out most of the vulnerable ice so it stalled and finished significantly higher than a year like 2008. The next closest year is 2010. I still think a finish close to 2010 is probably the most likely right now. That year finished at 3.07 million sq km for area....though really anything plus or minus 200k from that is fair game.

Just to make sure I understand, when it says -320K, for example, it means 2007 had 320K less than 2017, or the other way around?

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