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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume


ORH_wxman
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On 1/24/2020 at 10:05 AM, SnoSki14 said:

These are temporary sea ice gains. The ice will collapse just as quickly once the vortex collapses in late winter. 

when the sea ice up there is doing well our winters suck.

so i vote for more sea ice loss up there so we can actually have a real winter down here.

 

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On 1/26/2020 at 8:47 AM, Orangeburgwx said:

I hope that is sarcasm...

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

It is lol... still I'm hoping for an early summer because my allergies get really bad in rainy/mild weather.  Very warm to hot and not humid is far better for my health.  We have weeds growing here and there are daffodils coming up out of the ground.

So for me not to be medicated on antihistamines I have to have cold/snow or cold/dry or warm to hot and dry.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Who is saying that daily or annual sea ice extent would only monotonically decrease? 

Peter Wadhams ScD, is professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge best known for his work on sea ice predicted in 2014 that that summer sea ice would disappear by 2020. We’ve got a lot of work to do if that prediction is going to work out.

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3 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Peter Wadhams ScD, is professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge best known for his work on sea ice predicted in 2014 that that summer sea ice would disappear by 2020. We’ve got a lot of work to do if that prediction is going to work out.

we're collectively responsible for an outlier prediction? 

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31 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Peter Wadhams ScD, is professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge best known for his work on sea ice predicted in 2014 that that summer sea ice would disappear by 2020. We’ve got a lot of work to do if that prediction is going to work out.

Gotcha. Outlier predictions like those from Wedhams are overwhelmingly rejected by mainstream science. The consensus timeline for the first ice free summer in the Arctic region is about 2040-2060 with moderate to high emissions scenarios. Note that "ice-free" means < 1e6 km^2. The disappearance of sea ice altogether would likely take hundreds of years even under an unmitigated emissions scenario. Regarding daily and annual sea ice extents...it's "supposed" to ebb and flow like this. Its best to stick to reputable sources for climate predictions or predictions of any kind in any discipline of science really. 

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46 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Gotcha. Outlier predictions like those from Wedhams are overwhelmingly rejected by mainstream science. The consensus timeline for the first ice free summer in the Arctic region is about 2040-2060 with moderate to high emissions scenarios. Note that "ice-free" means < 1e6 km^2. The disappearance of sea ice altogether would likely take hundreds of years even under an unmitigated emissions scenario. Regarding daily and annual sea ice extents...it's "supposed" to ebb and flow like this. Its best to stick to reputable sources for climate predictions or predictions of any kind in any discipline of science really. 

Not only is the arctic not going to be ice free this summer, it’s making gains. Not small gains either. It’s obvious the climate isn’t in the same state it was 40-50 years ago. No argument there. The doomsday predictions are what I struggle to understand. The fear mongering. I guess that’s what I don’t like about the other side of the argument.

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Gotcha. Outlier predictions like those from Wedhams are overwhelmingly rejected by mainstream science. The consensus timeline for the first ice free summer in the Arctic region is about 2040-2060 with moderate to high emissions scenarios. Note that "ice-free" means

You would have shorter ice free periods in September well before that.


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On 2/3/2020 at 3:35 PM, WarmNose said:

Not only is the arctic not going to be ice free this summer, it’s making gains. Not small gains either. It’s obvious the climate isn’t in the same state it was 40-50 years ago. No argument there. The doomsday predictions are what I struggle to understand. The fear mongering. I guess that’s what I don’t like about the other side of the argument.

I don't equate an ice-free summer regarding Arctic sea ice extents to anything even remotely close to a doomsday scenario though.

FWIW the "official" IPCC prediction can be seen in figure TS.17 of the AR5 WGI report. The best guess is about 2045 for RCP8.5, 2065 for RCP6.0, 2080 for RCP4.5, and never for RCP2.6.

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On 2/3/2020 at 3:53 PM, bdgwx said:

Gotcha. Outlier predictions like those from Wedhams are overwhelmingly rejected by mainstream science. The consensus timeline for the first ice free summer in the Arctic region is about 2040-2060 with moderate to high emissions scenarios. Note that "ice-free" means < 1e6 km^2. The disappearance of sea ice altogether would likely take hundreds of years even under an unmitigated emissions scenario. Regarding daily and annual sea ice extents...it's "supposed" to ebb and flow like this. Its best to stick to reputable sources for climate predictions or predictions of any kind in any discipline of science really. 

what are the projections for Antarctica?  They just recorded their highest temp ever recorded and accelerating ice melt.

 

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34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what are the projections for Antarctica?  They just recorded their highest temp ever recorded and accelerating ice melt.

 

Good question. This can be found in IPCC AR5 WGI figure 12.28.

For the summer minimum not much is expected to change through 2030. In fact, we might even expect a slight increase possibly lasting until mid century until a regime of more consistent declines begin down there.

Fig12-28-1.jpg

 

And the detailed breakdown for Arctic summer minimum is in IPCC AR5 WGI TS figure 17.

The only scenario that gets to near 100% melt out before 2100 is RCP8.5. But even then a very small patch of ice is predicted to cling the northern tip of Greenland. And, of course, winter ice will likely persistent for a very long time...well past 2100.

FigTS-17-2.jpg

 

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15 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Good question. This can be found in IPCC AR5 WGI figure 12.28.

For the summer minimum not much is expected to change through 2030. In fact, we might even expect a slight increase possibly lasting until mid century until a regime of more consistent declines begin down there.

Fig12-28-1.jpg

 

And the detailed breakdown for Arctic summer minimum is in IPCC AR5 WGI TS figure 17.

The only scenario that gets to near 100% melt out before 2100 is RCP8.5. But even then a very small patch of ice is predicted to cling the northern tip of Greenland. And, of course, winter ice will likely persistent for a very long time...well past 2100.

FigTS-17-2.jpg

 

Thanks!  I saw some very interesting predictions for temp patterns going forward.  Basically, we are warming from the pole "downwards" in that the greatest positive anomalies are occurring the further northward you go.  Northern VT is projected to be about 10 degrees F warmer by 2070?  At 40 N latitude on the east coast this is projected to be about 5.5 degrees F warmer.

 

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DMI volume is a bit suspect....I'd prob use PIOMAS and then definitely Cryosat2 when that updates more fully later this spring.

PIOMAS has volume currently 5th lowest. Still low, but not dead last like DMI. 2017 is pretty far alone in last place at this point.

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On 2/3/2020 at 3:53 PM, bdgwx said:

Gotcha. Outlier predictions like those from Wedhams are overwhelmingly rejected by mainstream science. The consensus timeline for the first ice free summer in the Arctic region is about 2040-2060 with moderate to high emissions scenarios. Note that "ice-free" means < 1e6 km^2. The disappearance of sea ice altogether would likely take hundreds of years even under an unmitigated emissions scenario. Regarding daily and annual sea ice extents...it's "supposed" to ebb and flow like this. Its best to stick to reputable sources for climate predictions or predictions of any kind in any discipline of science really. 

2050 sounds about right.

I think most are getting more worried about the Antarctic because of the implications of a rapid ice melt there.

My question is- do we really need an outlier winter like this to get ice growth in the Arctic regions?  Very few winters are going to have a + AO like this winter has had.

 

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This record +AO pattern was more like something we saw around 1990.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Previous studies, led by University of Washington scientist Ignatius Rigor (e.g., Rigor et al., 2002), suggest that a positive winter phase of the Arctic Oscillation favors low sea ice extent the subsequent September. Wind patterns “flush” old, thick ice out of the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait and promote the production of thin ice along the Eurasian coast that is especially prone to melting out in summer. However, in recent years, this relationship has not been as clear (Stroeve et al., 2011). The potential effects this winter’s positive AO on the summer evolution of ice extent and the September 2020 minimum bears watching.

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