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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume


ORH_wxman
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12 minutes ago, lookingnorth said:

I was looking at the GFS and it shows a lot of lower 500 mb heights over the Arctic Ocean in the next couple of weeks. Will that slow the rate of melting a lot?

Yes, most likely....we've already seen some slowing the last few days. I'm not sure this year will be able to keep pace with 2012 going forward with that pattern. But we'll see.

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On 7/12/2019 at 1:40 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Here's an animation comparing 2019 to 2012 on this date. I think the key to getting a new record is clearly going to be the Laptev/ESS side of the ice. The CAA are Atlantic side of the CAB are running way behind 2012 and those are going to be problems in sustaining the big losses.

 

Click to animate....

 

2019vs2012animation-7-11.gif

Wow I bet in 2012 you never would have thought 2019 would look like that. I'm surprised the melt isn't more extreme.. 

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Continuing to see steep losses even with more a reverse dipole relative to the last few months. That tells you something about the current condition of the ice pack. NSIDC had  a -164 K daily extent drop on July 17th. So very close to 2011 and 2012 on this date. Area losses continue to keep pace with 2012.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx

7-17-19.....7.454

7-17-12.....7.481

7-17-11.....7.444

721F81FE-2FBB-4AB9-9A75-94CF20CA8FE1.png.c565654962779d003335aa17d26d52fa.png

Last 5 days 

77BE79A0-5B81-46AB-A98B-7D189BF01ED7.thumb.png.211f2eeb00e4e001e430b6d9e49955b5.png

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Another big daily drop of 187K puts 2019 into 1st place on 7-19 for NSIDC extent. The early portion of August is when 2012 ran away with the lead during the record Arctic storm.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx

7-18-19....7.267

7-18-11....7.299

7-18-12....7.420

A few papers on the record breaking 2012 season:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.5034

On the 2012 record low Arctic sea ice cover: Combined impact of preconditioning and an August storm

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50190

The impact of an intense summer cyclone on 2012 Arctic sea ice retreat

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, Jonger said:

Not gonna happen this year.

Still a chance, but pretty low odds IMHO. We'll need some very warm August weather. Atlantic and CAA are a problem further out in time. We'll need the ESS/Laptev sectors to melt toward the pole further than 2012 did to have a chance because the ATL and CAA are going to finish higher than 2012.

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On 7/12/2019 at 1:40 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Here's an animation comparing 2019 to 2012 on this date. I think the key to getting a new record is clearly going to be the Laptev/ESS side of the ice. The CAA are Atlantic side of the CAB are running way behind 2012 and those are going to be problems in sustaining the big losses.

 

Click to animate....

 

2019vs2012animation-7-11.gif

I still think it will be difficult. The ice is much higher concentration this year in the CAB/CAA, and 2012 had so much rotted ice on the Siberian side. This year, it's more just a straight line between ice/no ice.

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Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere in this forum, but is there a good place for me to learn about Arctic ice melt forecasting?

I hear you guys talking about a dipole a lot, and I would guess that that means high pressure in one place and low pressure in another place, but what does that mean for melting exactly?

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2 hours ago, lookingnorth said:

Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere in this forum, but is there a good place for me to learn about Arctic ice melt forecasting?

I hear you guys talking about a dipole a lot, and I would guess that that means high pressure in one place and low pressure in another place, but what does that mean for melting exactly?

The classical dipole we tend to refer to typically means higher pressure on the Greenland/CAA/North American side of the basin and lower pressure on the Eurasian/Russian side. This results in a net wind and ice transport from the Pacific to Atlantic side of the basin. This typically causes high melt via transport of continental air over the central ice pack, compaction and export out through the Fram Strait and towards the Atlantic, where deep warm water makes quick work of even very thick sea ice.

A reverse dipole is the opposite situation.

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1 hour ago, chubbs said:

Think this will go down to the wire. The Pac-side pack has been deteriorating in a favorable pattern. 

Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

The Arctic experienced a record May and June combination of warmth and high pressure. So we have been seeing steep declines this week even with more favorable conditions than the last few months.

9ED6EED2-FD58-4A92-8B11-F1F07248A7E8.png.de183418c74a8948a23f39212c60437d.png

84F46297-02E4-4C9A-94FC-F2D85BBC8193.png.d99bbfc0dca5e2d1c6d4d113f9437864.png

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1 hour ago, etudiant said:

Simultaneously, this indication of thick ice north of Svalbard.

http://maritimebulletin.net/2019/07/19/icebreaker-turned-back-encountering-heavy-ice-in-ice-free-arctic/

So the ice conditions are quite variable. That however does not preclude a record low this season.

I mentioned before that Atlantic and CAA may prevent us from getting a new record. Much more ice there this year than 2012. But we still have a chance if ESS/Laptev can melt back far enough. 

We're tied for area right now. 2012 has some epic losses in early August though which is why I'm still a bit skeptical in addition to just looking at the individual regional concentration maps. 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Arctic experienced a record May and June combination of warmth and high pressure. So we have been seeing steep declines this week even with more favorable conditions than the last few months.

9ED6EED2-FD58-4A92-8B11-F1F07248A7E8.png.de183418c74a8948a23f39212c60437d.png

84F46297-02E4-4C9A-94FC-F2D85BBC8193.png.d99bbfc0dca5e2d1c6d4d113f9437864.png

The crazy thing is, with that temp trendline, this May-June period will be merely average by 2030-2035 -- though I would expect it to slow down after a while due to widespread melt moving earlier and capping temps near the melting point.

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5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mentioned before that Atlantic and CAA may prevent us from getting a new record. Much more ice there this year than 2012. But we still have a chance if ESS/Laptev can melt back far enough. 

We're tied for area right now. 2012 has some epic losses in early August though which is why I'm still a bit skeptical in addition to just looking at the individual regional concentration maps. 

Yeah, going to be tough to beat that early Aug. swan dive that 2012 had. Upcoming dipole might help give it a run for its money though.

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Here’s a quote from Wipneus on the July 15th PIOMAS update:

PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data to the 15th of this month. Volume calculated from this was 8.77 [1000km3]. That is the lowest for the day, with quite a margin.

789FA740-3A3D-4201-9ABF-A10D5C5D2C1E.thumb.png.8d381e923b87b32478cf7992c6a370e4.png

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23 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

This dipole will probably largely finish off the ESS, Chukchi and Laptev. Beaufort probably won't have much left either. Not looking great for the CAB either. Only the Atlantic side is doing okay this year.

12z Euro has record breaking 500mb heights and surface pressures over the CAB for this time of year.

BD5768EB-60C8-43CF-B74E-A0438AFD01E4.thumb.png.ee0e50c3f7c2711633841dd392456ce3.png

24D1D785-D05F-414F-901D-B5338B99F5CD.thumb.png.b331a6569a74bc777ff953783b8e4c15.png

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 We now have a warm low headed over siberia increasing the pressure grad there pluss all the heat from NW Europe is bound for Greenland/Atlantic side of the basin.

Folk need to look at the near real time sat images to see just how messy some areas of the ice are! Any extra heat input is just going to take out the ice rubble in rapid order leaving isolated floes in open water just in time for 'bottom melt' end of the season to kick in.

Not looking good at all

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