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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume


ORH_wxman
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There has been a lot of losses in the basin via ice floating into 'hostile ' areas that have been open water since the start of melt season. The Heat already in these Ocean areas will continue to impact area/extent even if we lose the sun and , worse still, see the ice under low pressure forcings?

Any presence of ripples/waves increases the uptake in solar and reduces the amount of energy bounced back into space.

Mill pond calm and cloudy/cool is what we need but I do not think any of the weather models are offering up that?

It appears that all melt season the Arctic has been intent on spilling all of its cold south and accepting WAA after WAA. Now there is no cold left and the areas blighted by the polar plunges are warming via imports from their neighbours not so blighted?

The season may slow over the basin but I think the continental areas to the South will be amassing plenty heat waiting for the slightest opportunity to go dump it in the basin!

In a few weeks time we enter the 'bottom melt dominated' part of the season and we will see if the sub 100m floes do go at rapid speeds with their side melt taking most of their ice ( and warming the ice inside the floe from heat entering from the base/sides and , possibly, top)

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21 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if 2019 can hold the area lead over 2012 if the models are correct about the polar blocking weakening.

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/daily-data

https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47/status/1147128282225287170

D27B2300-4973-4DAE-BD94-677282A1D665.png.6f6918ae2bd0b16545afc8af7ea21fbf.png

 

 

I don't know, it seems the closer we get the more blocking starts to show up. The current warming, ice melt could even help enhance blocking. 

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Yes, there does seem to be a relaxation of the hostile pattern in the cards in a few days. It doesn't exactly look cool, but definitely better than what we have now.

In the meantime, area remains in freefall and will likely build up a sizable lead over the next few days. Volume is now at record lowest (as of the 1st). This year definitely has a real shot at the record. At the very least an easy 2nd or 3rd place.

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We have a pack that PIOMAS tells us is the 'least ice' at this time of the year. We have NSIDC telling us area is at an all time low for the date and NSIDC also tell us 'compactness' is also low.

Ice with water all around it is vulnerable with none of the environmental support of fellow ice floes.

With so much FY ice out there ,and all of a similar thickness, are we about to see a July 'Cliff' with no equal?

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JAXA extent hits rock bottom for the 7th.

That is both NSIDC and JAXA with us at rock bottom and the ESS is such a mess I think we will see continued high losses for a while yet?

Then we have Beaufort chewing on the ice that 'relaxed' into it from the C.A.B.

Interesting Times

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On 7/3/2019 at 4:58 PM, SnoSki14 said:

These climate agenda arguments are so baffling to me, there's literally hard data from numerous sources/satellites that goes back decades to hundreds of years. 

But I guess in an age where anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers exist we shouldn't be too surprised.

Regardless, the climate will do what science intended whether you choose to remain ignorant or not. 

I kid you not there were tweets where people tried to dispute climate change by stating it snowed in Alberta last June. But mention record heat in Alaska/Europe happening now and you won't hear a peep. 

I would argue that the data doesn't go back hundreds of years, and that only remotely solid data only goes back 40 years. Automated systems for data gathering have really only widely been available for the past 20 years and economically feasible for mass distribution for the past 10 years. 

That said i'm not arguing at all against human caused global warming, just posting data that screams the sky is falling. My stance is that doing anything to try to affect the rate of warming at this point is a drop in the pond. All the green initiative here in the states is just nothing to what china and india are doing to the climate, and as Africa experiences a rapid and explosive industrialization over the next 50 years we will be even more negligible.  Money better spent would be on relocating people from areas that will either be flooded or protecting low lying areas as water levels rise.  

Additionally, what if we are wrong and there is some other forcing that is driving climate change? Then all of this time and money that could have been spent on preparing for the worst would have been wasted on trying to prevent it.

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Mercifully, it appears the pattern is breaking down for real this time, though there's some question on where that TPV sets up. If it's closer to the pole, then we could see a decent slowdown. If it's over towards the Laptev, then it won't provide all that much braking action as the CAB, Beaufort and Chukchi are exposed (and that front is very weak this year already).

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6 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Mercifully, it appears the pattern is breaking down for real this time, though there's some question on where that TPV sets up. If it's closer to the pole, then we could see a decent slowdown. If it's over towards the Laptev, then it won't provide all that much braking action as the CAB, Beaufort and Chukchi are exposed (and that front is very weak this year already).

The blocking and high pressure relaxation is coming just as 2019 edges ahead of 2012 for extent. But the thing that separated 2012 from the rest of the pack was the big storm and record late season decline. 

2019...8.345

2012...8.398

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Worldview looking worse and worse. Like 2012, the entire pack is riddled with extensive melt ponding, with no snow-covered areas left.

We never quite get rid of that -NAO either and that's going to be a bit of an issue in the next week for the CAB and Beaufort in particular. It's not the raging dipole or warmth we've had, but it isn't terribly great either.

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On July 9, 2019, Arctic sea ice extent fell below 8 million square kilometers (JAXA) to 7,953,297 square kilometers. That is the earliest date on record for less than 8 million square kilometers of ice. The previous earliest such date was July 10. That record was set in 2011 and tied in 2012.

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Here's an animation comparing 2019 to 2012 on this date. I think the key to getting a new record is clearly going to be the Laptev/ESS side of the ice. The CAA are Atlantic side of the CAB are running way behind 2012 and those are going to be problems in sustaining the big losses.

 

Click to animate....

 

2019vs2012animation-7-11.gif

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On 7/13/2019 at 8:18 AM, bluewave said:

2019 maintains a narrow lead over 2012 and 2011 as of July 12th. More modest 70k daily drop as the dipole relaxes from near record recent levels.

NSIDC extent

7-12-19....7.901

7-12-12....7.946

7-12-11....7.955

 

 

Sure you are looking at the right data? I am on the site and it shows 7/12/19 at 8.062

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9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Sure you are looking at the right data? I am on the site and it shows 7/12/19 at 8.062

It’s right on the NSIDC site.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx

We fell behind 2011 on the 13th.

7-13-11...7.765....#1

7-13-19...7.856....#2

7-13-12...7.917....#3

 

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s right on the NSIDC site.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx

We fell behind 2011 on the 13th.

7-13-11...7.765....#1

7-13-19...7.856....#2

7-13-12...7.917....#3

 

Thanks! Here is the data set I was looking at:

 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

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