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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume


ORH_wxman
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If you warm the pacific, you will get normal or below average temperatures in the US East and Midwest like clockwork until we fully transition. Just how the climate system is setup with the east sides of continents having the advantage of the cold air not moderating over the oceans.

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10 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

If you warm the pacific, you will get normal or below average temperatures in the US East and Midwest like clockwork until we fully transition. Just how the climate system is setup with the east sides of continents having the advantage of the cold air not moderating over the oceans.

 

He is right how the current block is outlined by the oceans.  (warmer oceanic areas)

along with where the atlantic meets the arctic.

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28 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

Ranting about how the Russians are punishing us with cold weather is a valid point?

 

Maybe ban this guy too.

I think they should both go.

Guys, this thread is about Arctic Sea Ice, not about the current cold snap in the Northeast U.S., or the Russian plot to displace cold from Siberia and move it to North America, or anything else. Keep it on track about the health and state of the cryosphere. Is that so difficult?

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3 hours ago, nzucker said:

I think they should both go.

Guys, this thread is about Arctic Sea Ice, not about the current cold snap in the Northeast U.S., or the Russian plot to displace cold from Siberia and move it to North America, or anything else. Keep it on track about the health and state of the cryosphere. Is that so difficult?

And laser beams.... don't forget the laser beams. :-)

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7 hours ago, nzucker said:

Keep it on track about the health and state of the cryosphere. Is that so difficult?

 

It is difficult when so much legitimate data is being kept/hid/restricted from the public the last several years.   Especially when an amateur makes an alarming discovery....they then decide to restrict / moderate data before it's officially released.

oh yea, and when will NASA update us on the cloud top lowering trends...?  i'm guessing never.   Since most are now experiencing 0 vis fog / whiteout conditions during severe storms.  

no big deal..no need to let public know the truth.

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35 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

 

It is difficult when so much legitimate data is being kept/hid/restricted from the public the last several years.   Especially when an amateur makes an alarming discovery....they then decide to restrict / moderate data before it's officially released.

oh yea, and when will NASA update us on the cloud top lowering trends...?  i'm guessing never.   Since most are now experiencing 0 vis fog / whiteout conditions during severe storms.  

no big deal..no need to let public know the truth.

Suggestion... either provide links to valid sources of supporting data, or quit posting wild unsubstantiated claims.

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2 hours ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

 

It is difficult when so much legitimate data is being kept/hid/restricted from the public the last several years.   Especially when an amateur makes an alarming discovery....they then decide to restrict / moderate data before it's officially released.

oh yea, and when will NASA update us on the cloud top lowering trends...?  i'm guessing never.   Since most are now experiencing 0 vis fog / whiteout conditions during severe storms.  

no big deal..no need to let public know the truth.

I work in this field, it's not that hidden. Here are some helpful links:

Sea Ice Thickness, freeboard, + lots of extras if you know how to plot netCDF

https://n5eil01u.ecs.nsidc.org/ICEBRIDGE/RDEFT4.001/

http://data.seaiceportal.de/gallery/index_new.php?lang=en_US&active-tab1=method&active-tab2=satellite

http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html

Good general reference:

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

Arctic weather forecasts:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018010212&fh=-12

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 1/29/2018 at 9:03 PM, The_Global_Warmer said:

What the hell is going on up there

The last two years have seen some pretty stunning winter anomalies. The negative feedback from ice thickness growth hasn't really shown up as a result. There's a recent paper that's somewhat related to this by Cvijanovic and Santer (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01907-4), 

Though the abstract focuses on California rainfall, it shows important global changes as well. It even goes into Antarctic sea ice and responses to that as well.

TLDR is while the Antarctic response to AGW has been slow (outside the oceans), the Arctic has not, and the downstream effects as a result have been fairly large. There's an opportunity (as outlined in the paper) for future Antarctic sea ice losses to dampen the Arctic-to-tropical response, but since the Antarctic is (a) slower to react and (b) has less ice to lose overall, we should probably expect more of the same in the future, if not at the same magnitude every year.

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3 hours ago, Wxdood said:

I know, there's still ice. Wasn't it supposed to be ice free in '08?

No, the 2007 IPCC report (the definitive scientific consensus on climate change at the time) predicted that near ice free conditions would not occur until the end of the 21st century. The projection was largely based on a modeling study by Zhang and Walsh who are two of the top sea ice researchers (you see their names a lot). That projection has since been moved up to the 2030s in some recent studies based on the unexpectedly fast rate of sea ice volume losses from 2007-2012.

Maybe some bloggers and people on this forum predicted sooner, but it is generally better to form one's opinions from peer-reviewed scientific and journalistic sources.

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14 hours ago, Wxdood said:

I know, there's still ice. Wasn't it supposed to be ice free in '08?

No. First, just to clarify, the academic jargon of "ice free" typically means less than 1 million sq km of extent. Second, based on the stuff I've read the consensus seems to be in 2040-2060 timeframe in which the probabilities of "ice free" go likely. At this point though I think we're going to be lucky to make it to 2040.

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? Check out the images on NASA. Not only have 2015-2016-2017 been substantially warm but it looks like we will go ice free in 10 years just by following basic trend lines

Also of note is arctic 500mb heights this Winter through Nov 1 - Feb 5 have been greater than any year since 2013, and substantially warmer than 2015-2016-2017 Winters. I would say just by going by basic probability there is a >50% chance that this Summer is the lowest arctic ice to date

 

image.gif

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