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July 10-18 Severe Possibilities


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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

New 4km NAM apocalyptic for the QC late Sunday.  Impressive parameters gather in the wake of the morning convection.  Shows the potential this setup has if the ankle biting convection and associated cloudiness gets out of the way in time.

Lol, good description. Lots of issues out this way means yet another round of scattered garden variety stuff.

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I wonder if we should just extend this thread at least through Monday.  Sunday's slight risk covers most of IA, WI, and N IL; while Monday's day 3 has introduced a Slight for much of OH, as well as NW PA and W NY.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

 

 

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Tidbit from earlier today from the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana...

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 443 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Continue to focus on east-southeastward peel of eastern MT
energy into the Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes late this
weekend. Leading edge of advected EML reaches into western Great
Lakes by late Sunday afternoon. This atop increasingly
strong/veering low level flow that should easily advect lower 70s
dewpoints now reaching into swrn MO for ramping instability late
in the day. While timing of this signaled MCS along with potential
system relative downstream development still rather
uncertain...possibly not into nwrn CWA til after 00 UTC Mon. For
now will continue toward later Sunday afternoon to start ramping
pops...though relegate most of event to overnight hours as deep
layer shear ramps to around 40 kts which should provide fair
degree of sustenance. Suspect any system to become outflow
dominant/spread more swd with time overnight as frontal boundary
presses southward through CWA. Concern for either upscale
regenerative growth and/or new development for late Monday morning
into afternoon hours...especially east of interstate 69 as deep
layer bulk shear ramps to near 45 knots as lagged/secondary wave
approaches/7-5h wswly flow increases to near 50 kts across
southern lower MI.

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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I'm getting tired of bad diurnal timing. Guess I'll go camp out in the complaint thread.

Bet there's a couple of tors this evening somewhere near or east of frantthetank's area.

This severe weather season should be euthanized at this point.

I have yet to see a somewhat decent shelf cloud, CTG lightning, strong/severe wind gusts or even hailstones and it's now almost August. 

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^Nice pics guys.

Yeah lots of clouds behind the departing MCS from the zombievection over Iowa.  Very typical of this kind of setup.  Would have been a pretty interesting setup over Iowa and southern WI if the morning MCS and elevated trailers didn't occur.  The early morning MCS was very entertaining at least.

SPC expects the east/west effective boundary from central IL into northern MO/southern IA to be the main focus later on.  Sounds about right to me.  Hoping I can head out later and get a cool time lapse of some huge towers blowing up in the southern skies if we can clear out enough.  

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