July 10-18 Severe Possibilities

[Powerball]

And also lol at below:

000
FXUS63 KDTX 170749
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
349 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

The narrative in discussions both offered in earlier DTX AFDs and in
the SPC Outlooks has been trying to communicate that of uncertainty
with convective coverage and timing.  Latest guidance seems to be
converging on a solution now that is more pessimistic with the
overall potential for precipitation. Latest solutions suggest that a
low to mid chance pops for showers and thunderstorms will exist
along the wind shift as it sags southward through lower Michigan
this evening and tonight. The reasons for the pessimism is very
familiar to what has been seen this summer: 1. Poor quality and
disrupted warm conveyor, 2. Veered out wind profile and
compromised lower tropospheric convergence over Southeastern
Michigan, 3. Persistent anticyclonic flow influence with little to
no 1000-500mb height falls. The greatest foci for mesoscale
forcing will occur this afternoon across northern lower
Michigan/Straits region/northern Great Lakes immediately ahead of
the MCV and then over sections of northern Illinois and Indiana
tonight as a backward propagation vector takes hold of the storm
motion. Have lowered pops down into the chance category for all
areas.

[A-L-E-K]

It's a pretty accurate summary of our recent struggles

[Chambana]

Was out country cruisinbefore the storms and shot this too. 

Storms had more bark than bite. Got some nice rumblers though

[cyclone77]

Cape rebuilding pretty quickly across the southwest half of Iowa.  Nice lapse rate plume feeding back into there from the Plains.  Should see storms blow up there at some point later today or this evening.  Wouldn't completely write off areas further north yet, as that area is recovering quickly as well.  Still could see some decent storms blow up over the northern half of Iowa up into WI, although widespread severe threat isn't nearly as potent looking as it would have been.

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This is what the morning storms did 20 miles nw of Cedar Rapids.

Was that the storm in Vinton?  KGAN is reporting that an apartment building was unroofed there.

Also look at the damage to homes in Walford in the same article--could that look tornadic?

http://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/overnight-storms-cause-damage-to-homes-in-walford

 

[janetjanet998]

SBCAPES >5000 over IA into central IL

pretty decent shear too

 

[cyclone77]

Up to 83/76 here with a nice cu field rolling nicely as it zips northward.  Definitely recovered quite a bit since this morning.  But, twill it be enough?

[Indystorm]

I keep wondering if that precip south of Omaha will be the one to explode once it moves east of the present area of convective inhibition.

[CoalCityWxMan]

Towers are trying to go up just south of here but the cap is still holding. 

[CoalCityWxMan]

8 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Towers are trying to go up just south of here but the cap is still holding. 

Now some development is starting to take place, looks like the cap might be eroding. If storms develop and tap into the instability we could be in business, plenty of instability. 88/78 here. 

[janetjanet998]

16 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Now some development is starting to take place, looks like the cap might be eroding. If storms develop and tap into the instability we could be in business, plenty of instability. 88/78 here. 

Just walked the dog towers trying to go up from my NW to my NE but look "soft" 

[janetjanet998]

supercell composite of 20 and STP of 4 near me as of 0z

 

convection developing one north central IL now just north of me

 

[cyclone77]

Yeah towers quickly going up over the southern half of the sky here as well.  Sweltering 84/77 still.  MLI dew up to 78.

[CoalCityWxMan]

decent towers going up all over now, thunder to my south. 

[CoalCityWxMan]

Storm near Odell already warned. Could be fun if more storms grow upscale and tap into this instability 

[Central Illinois]

ILX

[janetjanet998]

MESO OUT

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT     SUMMARY...WEST/EAST-ORIENTED CONVECTION MAY BECOME SUSTAINED ACROSS   NORTHERN IL AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST TOWARDS NORTHEAST MO. WEAK FORCING   FOR ASCENT RENDERS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DEGREE OF   DEVELOPMENT...BUT LARGE BUOYANCY AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP SHEAR   ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL/WIND.    

 

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED IN A   WEST/EAST-ORIENTED FASHION WITHIN A MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME   ACROSS NORTHERN IL...WITH A SEPARATE STORM FARTHER SOUTHWEST OVER   NORTHEAST MO. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK WITH THE PRIMARY COLD   FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA TO SOUTHEAST NEB. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER   THIS CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR AMID MINOR   MLCIN OF -25 TO -50 J/KG PER 00Z ILX/DVN RAOBS. LARGE MLCAPE ALONG   WITH AROUND 40-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING   UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL ORGANIZED CLUSTERING GIVEN THE WESTERLY MEAN   ORIENTED PARALLEL TO DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE HAIL/WIND SHOULD BE THE   PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THIS OCCURS.  

 

[Hoosier]

Tornado warning for Putnam county.

[Central Illinois]

cells are really starting to blow up over North Central IL even a Tornadic cell SE of princeton 

[Central Illinois]

12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Tornado warning for Putnam county.

Yea it's confirmed now tornado on the ground 2 miles east of mcnabb

[cyclone77]

Towers overhead here were taking off, but have since crapped the bed. 

[janetjanet998]

storm near dwight looks interesting

[Natester]

10 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This is what the morning storms did 20 miles nw of Cedar Rapids.

I heard about that this morning.  Definitely NOT straight line wind damage.  Looks really tornadoish (EF2+) to be exact.

As for the storms this morning, the power flickered several times this morning but never went out here.

[janetjanet998]

3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

storm near dwight looks interesting

TOR warned now

[cyclone77]

Yeah southwest portion of Dwight looks to be impacted.  Hard to tell for sure though due to radar tilt.

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah southwest portion of Dwight looks to be impacted.  Hard to tell for sure though due to radar tilt.

If that hook could rotate forward a bit, we could be looking at something significant, there is a good couplet there moving southeast.

[cyclone77]

7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

If that hook could rotate forward a bit, we could be looking at something significant, there is a good couplet there moving southeast.

Yeah it's still intensifying.  80kt inbound bin showing up now for >110kts g2g southeast of Dwight.

[janetjanet998]

  0905 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 SE DWIGHT 41.06N 88.38W   07/17/2016 LIVINGSTON IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE     REPORTED AS POSSIBLE TORNADO. ANOTHER REPORT FROM TRAINED   SPOTTER LOOKING NORTHEAST FROM ODELL SEES WALLL CLOUD AND   POSSIBLE FUNNEL ILLUMINATED BY LIGHTNING.

[Chinook]

Quote

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD BETWEEN DWIGHT
         AND CAMPUS.

 

 

[janetjanet998]

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 393   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   900 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016     THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A     * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   NORTHEAST ILLINOIS   NORTHWEST INDIANA     * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 900 PM   UNTIL 100 AM CDT.     * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...   ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE   A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE     SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE   DEVELOPING EARLY TONIGHT WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.   ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME AND BE CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY   ALSO BE POSSIBLE.