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July 10-18 Severe Possibilities


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Roughly the NW half of MN is in at least a Severe risk today (plus the current action in S MN): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

Plus most of MN and the western 2/3 of IA in a large Severe risk for Monday: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

The action is predicted to shift eastward for Tuesday, with Milwaukee, Chicago, most of MI, SE WI and N IL in play for a slight risk: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

 

SPC also not ruling out some risk areas later this week in parts of the subforum: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0353 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016   VALID 131200Z - 181200Z   ...DISCUSSION...   A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY 4-8   TIME FRAME. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME   ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION AS AN   UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN   THE WEEK.  AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL   DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS.  THUNDERSTORMS   WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO   VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY /DAY 4/ AND   THURSDAY /DAY 5/...WITH SOME SEVERE RISK ANTICIPATED.  CONSIDERABLE   VARIABILITY EXISTS WITH LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE   IN IDENTIFYING SPECIFIC DAILY 15 PERCENT RISK AREAS REMAINS LOW WITH   THIS OUTLOOK.   ..BUNTING.. 07/10/2016
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IMO some surprise severe in western IL this afternoon--there had been a Severe Thunderstorm Warning earlier in southern Knox County (Galesburg and south), but it appears to have weakened.  Still appears strong on radar and headed directly toward Peoria in the next hour.

 

Also a few heavy cells southwest of Macomb, while Quincy is under a STW too (until 5PM):

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO430 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016ILC001-MOC111-127-102200-/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-160710T2200Z/ADAMS IL-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-430 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDTFOR WESTERN ADAMS...EASTERN LEWIS AND NORTHERN MARION COUNTIES...AT 430 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINEEXTENDING FROM CANTON TO NEAR MAYWOOD...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10MPH.HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...QUINCY...CANTON...LA GRANGE...EWING...MAYWOOD...TAYLOR...LIMA AND MEYER.THIS ALSO INCLUDES  WAKONDA STATE PARK.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ABUILDING.CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE`S LEADINGKILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TOBE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TOFLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.&&LAT...LON 4021 9151 4020 9150 4020 9134 3981 9140      3990 9180 4021 9160TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 287DEG 10KT 4012 9152 3994 9165HAIL...1.00INWIND...60MPH$$
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New Day 3 for Wednesday has a Slight Risk for most of IA, northern and central IL, N MO, S WI, NW IN, and SW lower MI:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

...GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN   PLAINS...   MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY   ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY   LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN NEB/NORTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN   WI/SOUTHEAST MN. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN AMPLE   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS OVER THIS   REGION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  MID-LEVEL COOLING SHOULD GRADUALLY   RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE CAP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT   SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE   AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING WITH A   CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.    A MORE ISOLATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST FARTHER WEST ALONG   THE FRONT WHERE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AND   LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS MORE UNCERTAIN. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AVERAGING   30-35 KTS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A   SEVERE RISK WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.   ..BUNTING.. 07/11/2016
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Recent euro runs blast a strong line down through eastern Iowa during peak heating Wednesday.  That could be fun... and a nice change from all the nighttime storms.

 

Probably our best shot at severe this week.  Tonight's action will probably crap out shortly after crossing I-35.  Tomorrow's setup is very muddled due to tonight's convection.  Wed has looked decent for the last 4-5 days.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
556 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...  
NORTH CENTRAL MEEKER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...  
 
* UNTIL 630 PM CDT  
 
* AT 555 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED OVER WATKINS...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. CLOUD...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS  
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE  
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...  
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE  
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
KIMBALL AROUND 605 PM CDT.  

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MNC145-112330-  
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-160711T2330Z/  
STEARNS MN-  
614 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016  
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTY...  
 
AT 614 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ROCKVILLE...OR  
11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. CLOUD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE  
IS LIKELY.  
 
THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
SOUTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:  
LUXEMBURG.  
 

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