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Scott747

Super Typhoon Nepartak

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This is insane. Typhoon Nepartak rapidly intensified a couple of days ago and now is estimated to be 150 knot, Category 5 on the Saffir Simpson scale. It is headed toward Taiwan, which took two direct hits last year. 150 knots =173mph is one of the strongest tropical cyclones of all time. Note: for Typhoon Haiyan (2013) JTWC estimated Haiyan to have attained one-minute sustained winds of 315 km/h (195 mph). So this is not quite within 20mph of Haiyan's West-Pac record.

 

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It was a seamless erc.

 

He got into Taitung a few hours ago. Headed N as far as Chenggong to scout out viable spots if needed. There is what appears to be a solid hotel in Changgong that he is going to check out along with a few of the other small towns on the way there.

 

At this point though it's looking like Taitung as ground zero. 

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Wind reports available in the impact zone:

 

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/real/index_E.htm

 

Storm is predicted to track very close to Ludao (offshore island). Click on "weather" to change display to other parameters such as rainfall.

 

Convert m/s to mph in two steps ...

 

m/s to km/h multiply by 3.6 (e.g. 30 m/s is 108 km/hr)

 

km/h to mph multiply by 5/8 (close approx), (e.g. 30 m/s = 108 km/hr = 67.5 mph

 

combined conversion is therefore to multiply by 2.25.

 

fairly close and easy conversion to knots is to multiply by 2 (actual is about 2% higher).

 

(e.g. 30 m/s is about 60 knots, closer to 61).

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I am estimating direct hit on Ludao island around 22z (0600h TST) and landfall about 30 miles or 50 km north of Taitung at about 01 to 02z or 0900-1000h TST. That is about halfway between Taitung and Chenggong to its north. The latest official track seems to run slightly south of my estimate with similar timing and would run just south of Taitung at landfall (a worst case scenario for that city) so I hope my estimate is better. The divergence is not large enough to have much implication for Ludao where any residents should be in most secure possible location not within 10 meters of sea level.

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Coastal road 20-30 miles northeast of Taitung gives you an idea what the coast is like in possible landfall zone. Had a picture but it won't upload. Looks like Taiwan version of Malibu coast anyway, palm trees, gentle rise from ocean, hills about 800 feet high covered in forest.

 

Taitung city is built on a river delta plain and appears to be generally 10-15 meters above sea level so storm surge (if the track is further south as per JWC) might be an issue up the river and nearby but not as much generally speaking for the city center. However, I think they will have the off-land very strong westerly winds that are now hitting the southern island offshore.

 

If my track verifies at least there are very few people in the possible storm surge and max wind zones, it is mostly rural with a few small villages.

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It took a wobble due west in the past hour but may resume more northwest motion, still think the eye may come in a bit north of the city but two things, the eyewall has been considerably stronger on southern side past three hours (from radar) and the airport at Taitung is on the north side of the city so when we get its landfall reports, bear in mind that it is located about 5 miles north of the city. Unhelpfully, Ludao Island has stopped reporting new data. It looks to be set to spend some time in the eye soon.

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James Reynolds is streaming it live in Periscope, winds look as strong as any hurricane or typhoon footage I've ever seen (with the exception of that famous Hurricane Charley video)

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Current landfall is looking like Taitung city at about 2330z which would be 0730h local time.

 

Note, I have been comparing satellite and radar, satellite has 0.1 deg westward displacement due to parallax, will tend to show landfall too early. Radar location of eye is about 50 miles east-south-east of Taitung.

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