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July 5-8 Severe/Heavy Rain Possibilities


Hoosier

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All CAMs show several helicity streaks across the state, I would watch once things warm up if we don't get some tornadoes today.

 

 

Directional shear is forecasted to decrease as the day progresses with the shortwave unraveling. So the transition to a squall line should happen fairly quickly (per the Hi-Res models).

 

But yeah, things could get dicey for a little bit with these supercells. 

 

But to your point, I will say the latest HRRR is a little concerning (as far as the shortwave unraveling more slowly than progged).

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Directional shear is forecasted to decrease as the day progresses with the shortwave unraveling. So the transition to a squall line should happen fairly quickly (per the Hi-Res models).

But yeah, things could get dicey for a little bit with these supercells.

There should still be sufficient speed shear even as the winds near surface veer later on. Forecast effective shear on the mesoanalysis show this for the next 6 hours.
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Latest update from DTX...

 

000
FXUS63 KDTX 081535
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1135 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.UPDATE...

A volatile severe weather scenario is setting up over lower
Michigan for the afternoon into early evening. Convection is
already off to a strong start in northern lower Michigan where
favorable atmospheric conditions are just beginning to overlap.
The storm environment will become even more favorable over central
and southern lower Michigan during early afternoon driven
primarily by the strong upper low for early July and the
associated cold front that will move through the region. Late
morning mesoanalysis indicates a ridge of MLCAPE exceeding 2000
J/KG extending northward from Illinois ahead of the cold front.
The upper low will then provide a mostly unidirectional wind
profile with near 50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, mid level lapse
rates steepening toward 7 C/KM, and strong negative buoyancy below
cloud base suggested by dry air in WV imagery. Model forecast
soundings indicate freezing level also lowering into the 11-12 kft
range which will be more favorable for large hail with
increasingly large cape density in the mid levels. Expect
buoyancy/shear interaction to produce discrete supercell mode
initially where strongly rotating updrafts/deep mesocyclones will
support both large hail possibly greater than golf ball size and
tornado potential. Transition to linear mode later in the day will
also support damaging wind exceeding 60 mph. At this point, storm
coverage is expected to be more numerous in the Tri Cities to
northern Thumb region down to about the I-69 corridor but with
coverage still generously scattered farther south through metro
Detroit. Important to note that all storms will have similar
severe potential over all of SE Michigan regardless of coverage.

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Last night's storms really screwed up the mixing heights today. It shows on the SPC mesoanalysis page. 

 

Despite plenty of morning sun, we're just not reaching 80*F at noon. Will need a hell of a rally to make it to 90*F, at least before the storms get here. 

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After further review, today isn't hardly a shabby setup. It's almost like a poor man's 1997 redux in terms of the synoptic setup. If the shortwave didn't unravel so quickly and was a little deeper, then we'd really be in business. 


 


The rain BTW may have been a blessing in disguise. One issue with extended dry periods is that it's easier to topple over the large tree branches when we do finally get damaging winds to come through. 


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Looking over the high res models, it looks like the best shear and forcing will hang to the north in the thumb/sag valley area. SPC seems to agree.

 

While a risk exists for the Metro Detroit area, I really wouldn't be surprised if we got shut out again here locally.

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Looking over the high res models, it looks like the best shear and forcing will hang to the north in the thumb/sag valley area. SPC seems to agree.

 

While a risk exists for the Metro Detroit area, I really wouldn't be surprised if we got shut out again here locally.

 

FWIW, the Hi-Res models (HRRR, NMM / ARW, 4km NAM, RAP) do show most of Metro Detroit getting in on some of the action.

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Yep. Most likely, storms will initiate along the "effective front", or the lake breeze boundary in MI...

 

latest_DTW_vis.jpg

 

Yeah I think you're right. One small cell along the lake front south of here. It sure did get windy here in the last 15 minutes.

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The northern suburbs and the city itself. When I say locally, I mean the downriver area.

 

Ah ok, I misunderstood you.

 

I know this season has been absolutely atrocious thus far and it's hard to not assume the worst, but even for Downriver, it's the best-looking setup we've had this season. So I would at least give the activity a chance to develop and evolve before expressing doubts. As we know, convection is known to always throw curve balls in terms of what one expects.

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Ah ok, I misunderstood you.

 

I know this season has been absolutely atrocious thus far and it's hard to not assume the worst, but even for Downriver, it's the best-looking setup we've had this season. So I would at least give the activity a chance to develop and evolve before expressing doubts. As we know, convection is known to always throw curve balls in terms of what one expects.

Feel any different now?

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