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July 5-8 Severe/Heavy Rain Possibilities


Hoosier

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Indeed. I'd say explosive and would anticipate SPC to ratchet things up if anything like that continues to be modeled.

Yeah, the zone is quite large too with a warm front in the area and a belt of westerlies riding along it enhancing shear.

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It has been a couplet-palooza with the MCS thus far.

Wouldn't be surprised if numerous tors are found if surveys are conducted.

Yeah I see at least 4 currently, not sure why La Crosse isn't warning for them, especially considering they are pretty decent couplets.

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Decided to go a little north of Omaha/Council Bluffs and at least watch the severe storm go by north of here. Structure is amazing. Start getting rained on and realize the outflow from it seems to have broken a cap or been the trigger needed to light up the atmosphere around Omaha.

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Disco for above day 2 map.

 

 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SRN
   MN...CENTRAL AND NRN IA EAST INTO SRN WI/NWRN IL...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS EAST TO THE OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM
   EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EAST ACROSS THE
   UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO
   VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...POSSIBLY
   CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FROM THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   WEDNESDAY...EMBEDDED IN MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE
   THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES.

   A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND GENERALLY FROM NEAR THE
   ND/MN BORDER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS BY
   LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN
   THE VICINITY OF IA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT...REINFORCED BY
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...WILL LIKELY EXTEND EAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW
   INTO THE OH VALLEY OR LOWER GREAT LAKES. GENERALLY WEAK
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS ON
   THURSDAY.

   ...EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO OHIO
   VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

   THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
   IA/SOUTHERN MN EAST INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL ASSOCIATED WITH AN
   MCS FROM WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS...PLUS DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL
   LOCATIONS/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AMONG LATEST GUIDANCE...CASTS SOME
   UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF SEVERE STORMS
   THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...DESPITE MORNING
   THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
   /DEWPOINTS AVERAGING IN THE 70S/ COUPLED WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENSION
   OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD
   RESULT IN STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY FROM
   EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST ACROSS IA/SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WESTERN
   PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

   STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING INITIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT AS
   LARGE-SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS AND COMBINES WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO
   REDUCE CINH. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UPSCALE GROWTH
   WITH TIME SHOULD RESULT IN AN EAST/SOUTHEAST-MOVING
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
   FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER MN...INSTABILITY WILL BE
   WEAKER HOWEVER WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE HAIL AND WIND RISK
   DURING THE DAY/EVENING.

   FARTHER EAST...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE NEAR THE COMPOSITE WARM FRONT FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE/STRONG
   SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL
   IMPULSE MOVING EAST ACROSS THIS AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   MAY PROVIDE AN AREA OF MORE FOCUSED THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE
   POTENTIAL...INCLUDING SOME RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.

   ..BUNTING.. 07/06/2016

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