ice1972 Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Hi Boston....welcome to the party.....what a great night for region wide SVR in SNE.....man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 First storm was the best..but round 2 at 12:30 was another great lightning producer with massive bangs Looks like we do it again today and Tuesday. Dews FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Yeah, awesome light show last night. Lots of thunder and lightning. It's been a while since I've had a show like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Last night was a strong-contender for 'best light show evah' award. Just non-stop thunder and lightning for a couple hours straight. Pretty amazing stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Last night was a strong-contender for 'best light show evah' award. Just non-stop thunder and lightning for a couple hours straight. Pretty amazing stuff. I agree...I was amazed at how long the number of flashes and the rolling thunder lasted. Just awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 17 minutes ago, MetHerb said: I agree...I was amazed at how long the number of flashes and the rolling thunder lasted. Just awesome! Yeah crazy stuff. Just checked the rain gauge...2.5" here in Woodstock since 3pm yesterday. 1.25" with the first round yesterday afternoon, then another 1.25" from the two waves of strong storms overnight. Guess I brought the NNE rains down south with me. Not dry here anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah crazy stuff. Just checked the rain gauge...2.5" here in Woodstock since 3pm yesterday. 1.25" with the first round yesterday afternoon, then another 1.25" from the two waves of strong storms overnight. Guess I brought the NNE rains down south with me. Not dry here anymore. it's only dry at scooter's house. No rain for him, only snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Had about half inch here it seems. Better than nothing. Really much more widespread than I thought. The first round was just convection gone wild in NY state that wasn't modeled all that well, but survived thanks to instability. Second round was from subtle s/w and increased LLJ which looked to be the real cause for storms before round 1 happened. I wonder if remnant boundaries leftover from round 1 actually helped and acted as a subtle WF. Anything to get the air to lift. Today is not set in stone. Rising heights aloft and perhaps some drying aloft too. Still, if we don't mix out...might be some good storms around. Perhaps near and s of Pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Tuesday late day into evening looks good on NAM. Big theta-e return and good shear with windfields increasing. Might have to watch late day complex in NY state move E and form MCS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Some trees down south of 84 in town..Vernon where I grew up got crushed. You could see that big wind signal there last night and it passed right thru Tolland south of 84. Trees down all over Vernon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol at BoX tweets of atmosphere not being supportive of it. She needs to be removed from the desk In their defense, SPC was all over the place yesterday. The day shift issued that MCD saying isolated severe, 20% chance of a watch, then the evening shift comes in and reverses course and wanted a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Had about half inch here it seems. Better than nothing. Really much more widespread than I thought. The first round was just convection gone wild in NY state that wasn't modeled all that well, but survived thanks to instability. Second round was from subtle s/w and increased LLJ which looked to be the real cause for storms before round 1 happened. I wonder if remnant boundaries leftover from round 1 actually helped and acted as a subtle WF. Anything to get the air to lift. Today is not set in stone. Rising heights aloft and perhaps some drying aloft too. Still, if we don't mix out...might be some good storms around. Perhaps near and s of Pike? Yeah, that cold pool really developed out by UCA and ran away with things. Anytime you have a real high theta-e air mass that is always the danger. I think the CAMs really don't handle cold pools well. They develop them, but it's not always correct with how it evolves downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, that cold pool really developed out by UCA and ran away with things. Anytime you have a real high theta-e air mass that is always the danger. I think the CAMs really don't handle cold pools well. They develop them, but it's not always correct with how it evolves downstream. Yeah much more widespread than I thought thanks to that. Good show on round 2 down here. Hoping for more today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 14, 2016 Author Share Posted August 14, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Had about half inch here it seems. Better than nothing. Really much more widespread than I thought. The first round was just convection gone wild in NY state that wasn't modeled all that well, but survived thanks to instability. Second round was from subtle s/w and increased LLJ which looked to be the real cause for storms before round 1 happened. I wonder if remnant boundaries leftover from round 1 actually helped and acted as a subtle WF. Anything to get the air to lift. Today is not set in stone. Rising heights aloft and perhaps some drying aloft too. Still, if we don't mix out...might be some good storms around. Perhaps near and s of Pike? Also looks like llvl winds veer to be west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah much more widespread than I thought thanks to that. Good show on round 2 down here. Hoping for more today. Dews up 3-5 degrees in the last 3 hours across S NH. The 11z HRRR was pretty robust for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Looks like ~1/4" at TAN. MEH. had a brief shower out here with some distant lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: In their defense, SPC was all over the place yesterday. The day shift issued that MCD saying isolated severe, 20% chance of a watch, then the evening shift comes in and reverses course and wanted a watch. It was a tough forecast. We had pretty meh forcing over SNE so we weren't going to get much unless the convection over NYS went to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 Today's a tough one. Definitely some subsidence as you can see heights rising all day but there appears to be a bit more low level convergence today than previous days with that front hanging around nearby. I'd say there's a pretty good chance we see nothing much today but we'll be really unstable and deep layer shear is perking up a bit so it's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 were supposed have a cap on sat still got sever weather so more today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 20 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Today's a tough one. Definitely some subsidence as you can see heights rising all day but there appears to be a bit more low level convergence today than previous days with that front hanging around nearby. I'd say there's a pretty good chance we see nothing much today but we'll be really unstable and deep layer shear is perking up a bit so it's worth watching. That s/wv is pretty far west, so another glancing blow here. But we should be able to pop off a few storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 14, 2016 Author Share Posted August 14, 2016 I don't know where this "capping" came from yesterday. Saw it mentioned a few times. I guess maybe perhaps with the degree of warmth aloft you could make that argument, however, the convective temps were like low 90's which was easily achieved across many locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I don't know where this "capping" came from yesterday. Saw it mentioned a few times. I guess maybe perhaps with the degree of warmth aloft you could make that argument, however, the convective temps were like low 90's which was easily achieved across many locations. Well, we were somewhat capped yesterday. The storms during the afternoon really struggled around here. During the evening things got better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Well, we were somewhat capped yesterday. The storms during the afternoon really struggled around here. During the evening things got better. Yeah, there was a small bit around. Much of the capping around the region was leftover from the backdoor. But you'll have capping anytime you're advecting serious warmth into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, there was a small bit around. Much of the capping around the region was leftover from the backdoor. But you'll have capping anytime you're advecting serious warmth into the region. Yup. Without some kind of synoptic scale forcing it's tough to get storms to really take off. We saw all kinds of towers going up yesterday afternoon and they struggled. When you get a big complex and a cold pool though all bets are off even if that stuff outruns the forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 14, 2016 Author Share Posted August 14, 2016 I had thought that there were several big signals which pointed towards the evening becoming quite active. You had the slight increase in winds aloft coupled with weak height falls. You also had impressive MLcape (>3000-3500 J) alon with steepening lapse rates which looked to be associated with the cold pool formed by the cluster(?). Outside of the slight capping we had during the day heights also remained quite neutral and winds aloft weren't much yet. Those early storms likely had enhancement from the boundary nearby or perhaps leftover outflow from previous night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 12 hours ago, CoastalWx said: You've been nailed compared to here. We've actually gotten shafted pretty good here. Seem to be missing the good stuff that's always pretty close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 RAP moisture bias in full effect today. Surface ob adjusted theta-e is a good 10 degrees off versus what the RAP thinks. Thinks we have dews closer to 70 than 74, which makes a big difference in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 So are we thinking late afternoon/evening show today in SNE..or more after dark again? HRRR seems like it's before dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So are we thinking late afternoon/evening show today in SNE..or more after dark again? HRRR seems like it's before dark Yeah, early show today. We'll need daytime heating to help force things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 89/74 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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