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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

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*yawn* Wake me when severe season rolls around (I'm not naieve enough to even consider being optimistic about winter snow)

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The main excitement for this winter will be how low can we get the temps. Its a great set up for a few short lived but severe cold shots. Can we get into the single digits with sub 0 for western N TX? It will likely be dry though. Hopefully we can get a couple NW flow high ratio surprises though. Beautiful weather after today though. Maybe some showers with each front then highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s post fronts. i do like seeing the rapid succession of the fronts, if that continues into winter maybe we wont see the big warmups between fronts. This is a winter where we could see some 90s in Feb though.

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Going into this winter I developed some experimental indicators to predict the timing of La Nina cold shots well in Albuquerque. The two strongest are:

ACE Index in La Nina predicts the mid-Dec to mid-Jan high pretty well (+/-3.4 at 82%) in Albuquerque. The current ACE index favors a 47.2F mid-Dec to mid-Jan period (average is 46). My analogs are somewhat colder than 47 but within the 3F range.

The timing of the first 90F high in May or June predicts the Nov-Jan high pretty well too. The earlier the first 90F high is, the colder Nov-Jan is in La Ninas. This implies Nov-Jan should be about 1.5F below average, +/-2.6F at 85%.

I went with a pretty warm November here. That's either spectacularly wrong, or it's going to be frigid in December or January if the formula and analogs are right.

 

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On 10/14/2020 at 10:08 AM, aggiegeog said:

The main excitement for this winter will be how low can we get the temps. Its a great set up for a few short lived but severe cold shots. Can we get into the single digits with sub 0 for western N TX? It will likely be dry though. Hopefully we can get a couple NW flow high ratio surprises though. Beautiful weather after today though. Maybe some showers with each front then highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s post fronts. i do like seeing the rapid succession of the fronts, if that continues into winter maybe we wont see the big warmups between fronts. This is a winter where we could see some 90s in Feb though.

I enjoy the rapid succession of the fronts as well mainly because it's a rinse & repeat pattern when moisture pools up here in N TX; a good way to reset. I enjoy the warm temperatures though so I probably won't be saying this a couple months from now, haha. From a meteorological standpoint they're fun to anticipate because if they don't bring something as simple as strong N/NW winds and a 10-30F temperature drop in a matter of hours they bring the chance of thunderstorms (potentially severe) or some sort of wintry surprise. 

When looking ahead at the long term pattern it's tough to pinpoint how often we'll see these, but as long as we have some sort of ridging in the Pacific we should be susceptible to these. Weekend should be good overall.  Looks like a slight chance of thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday with another fropa but appears isolated and mainly east of DFW.

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GFS keeps teasing a northern TX winter event next week. I am not buying it outside of the Panhandle at this point though. Arctic dry air usually cuts off precip faster in reality than models depict.

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The models have a lot of snow for the Northern NM mountains in the coming days. It seems like 6-18" is possible generally, but I wouldn't be surprised if some spots got far more since there are hints of snow Sun Night to Weds Morning in some spots.

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30s and cold rain coming for DFW Sunday night into Monday. Aka the closest thing we ever see to wintery weather since 2015

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This is pretty ballsy from the local NWS. I went 2-4", with up to 8" if the snow developed earlier in the day than expected (instead of rain). But it's also pretty windy which tends to limit snow accumulations here. Still in the high 40s after 11 pm too.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1102 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...ACCUMULATING SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

.A powerful backdoor cold front and deepening storm to the west
will combine to bring snow to northern and central New Mexico
through Wednesday. In addition to the snow will be brief periods
of sleet and freezing rain across portions of the east central
and southeast plains. In addition, record-breaking cold air with
wind chills near or below zero will increase hazardous travel
conditions. Snow will linger through Wednesday across the east as
precipitation wraps-around the storm system.

NMZ203-204-206-207-211-216>219-221-261100-
/O.CON.KABQ.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands-
West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-Jemez Mountains-
Upper Rio Grande Valley-Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
1102 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 9
  inches except for higher amounts along mountain peaks. Winds
  gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Far Northwest Highlands, Northwest Highlands, West
  Central Mountains and West Central Highlands.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel on Interstate 40 from the
  Bernalillo and Cibola County line to Fort Wingate and other
  highways over western New Mexico will be impacted. Near record
  cold temperatures will exacerbate the hazardous travel
  conditions. For the latest New Mexico road conditions call 511
  or visit nmroads.com.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for New Mexico can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1, 1-800-432-4269, or visiting nmroads.com.
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https://www.abqjournal.com/1511218/snow-cold-blast-new-mexico.html

New Mexico’s ski resorts welcomed the fresh powder, said Reed Weimer, marketing manager for the Red River Ski and Summer Area.

By Monday afternoon, the storm had dropped about 2 feet of snow on the resort, which is scheduled to open for the winter season on Nov. 25.

Tania McCormack, marketing director at Taos Ski Valley, said a storm of this magnitude is unusual for this time of year. The resort, which had received about 20 inches from the storm by Monday afternoon, plans to open on Thanksgiving Day.

“Pass sales are going really well,” McCormack said. “Especially with the snow starting to fall, we’ve seen an uptick in pass purchases. I think people are really excited to get outside and back on the mountain.”

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Already hearing some totals nearing 2 feet across northern NM. Wondering if there will be any 3 feet totals from this event, I expect there will be.

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I would expect this pattern to repeat, but with the snow extent up to 100-200 miles further south, in early December and late January. The prior big cold storm in September brought snow down to Santa Fe, this one went down to Truth or Consequences. You could probably push a good storm and cold blast down to Chihuahua in the dead of winter in this setup. 

Image

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I am loving what I am seeing for NM and TX for late fall/early winter. Cold shots with good moisture. I expect mid winter to be cold and dry. Who knows about late winter/early spring but my bet is warm for that period.

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14 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

38 yesterday and 36 today in Lindale.

Yep, 36F here this morning. Had a new HVAC system into this summer. The heat wouldn't turn on yesterday. Luckily they were able to send a tech out and it was only a connection that wasn't plugged in. :rolleyes:

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Very boring weather pattern. But it has been outstanding fall weather. Looks to be in the 70's for the next week. Only a slight chance of rain early next week but doesn't look like it will amount to much.

When will it change? GFS says there could be a few chances for some precip over the next 16 days, but mostly only for the eastern half of the state. Nothing looks very significant/widespread. Texas could use some moisture.

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The only significant weather happening over the next week in our region is a decent mountain snow for northern and western NM this weekend into early next week.

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Bit more snow for NM today and Sunday. Nothing but rain for the city. I went with 0.05-0.35" for Albuquerque.

Image

1988 has been showing up a lot in the 6-10 and 8-14 CPC analogs. Fingers crossed. If we aren't in a two year La Nina (and I don't think we are), I could see 1989 taking over as the best analog next year.

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Cold morning lows have been a bit ahead of the analog schedule (black v. brown) so far for Albuquerque. Still behind last year though. It's a shame we didn't hit 100 lows <=32F last year with how cold in got in Oct-Nov. But we had super warm lows in March and barely any lows <=32F in Spring.

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"La Ninas are warm and dry in the Southwest". Well...

Image

My analogs had 0.40" total precipitation in November, with a bit of snow. So it'd be nice if this verified. The timing/precip amounts look fairly similar to one of the late November storms in 2019. That doesn't really surprise me - in the records here heavy snow in November is highly clustered in short periods, and then it disappears for decades. So would not be shocked if we see a big snow storm. Still like the 12/1-12/3 period for a big storm too given the huge SOI crashes of late.

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58 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Had a brief tor warning up in Denton. Can't say I saw that coming on a marginal risk day

We actually had some favorable values (EHI, SigTor, VTP) earlier that showed up on the SPC Mesoanalysis between DFW and the Red River.  Some of those values were pretty high (there were VTPs exceeding 9, for instance) before the storms came through, so I’m not surprised at all that there were a few tornado-warned storms.

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1 hour ago, cheese007 said:

TDS in Arlington!

Starting to see some pictures of likely tornadic damage there. Love Field was under a tornado warning for some time too but no tornado (thankfully).

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We've actually been getting pretty decent snowstorms this Fall, hopefully the big warm ups that have melted most of it are done for a while. My winter outlook had 20 inches of snowpack at Taos Powderhorn entering 12/1, we may actually beat that with the coming storms.

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Looking at Google maps traffic data and the damage pics seems like it was a brief but powerful tornado. 

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