bubba hotep Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 And it looks pretty dry for the next 7 to 10 days, things are getting bad in NE Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 I am usually of the mind to wait to call winter cancel, but this is getting alarming. Still plenty of time to turn around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Well it finally looks like we are going to get some colder weather for a change this coming weekend. Lows look good upper 30/near 40 for DFW Airport by Sunday morning. It'll make for quite the change. Also, looks like the rest of the month may see more cold shot potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 23 hours ago, Roy said: I am usually of the mind to wait to call winter cancel, but this is getting alarming. Still plenty of time to turn around though. The first shot of solid chilly air will be here this weekend with frost possible in rural areas. This week looks pretty warm though until Friday or so when the front flips us to chilly air and a brisk N wind. I really hope we get some rain though eventually, the SE ridge is nosing a bit too far west for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Looks to me like the PDO is heading positive again, with the AMO weakening a bit. Both good for New Mexico & the SW. The La Nina is still pretty clearly a Modoki, and weak. Not sure how long it lasts either, I think it may peak Oct-Dec, or Nov-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 On 11/13/2016 at 10:46 AM, Roy said: I am usually of the mind to wait to call winter cancel, but this is getting alarming. Still plenty of time to turn around though. I wouldn't start worrying until January rolls around and we haven't seen any positive signs. Wayyy too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 The PDO went up in October (JISAO) to 0.56 It took me a while, but Dec-Feb 1937-38, 1943-44, 1959-60, 1983-84 work well as a good match for the oceanic pattern right now. Those years had a PDO value in Nov-Apr of 0.58, an ONI value of -0.28 in DJF, and an AMO value of 0.146 from Nov-Apr. Central/Modoki La Nina, weak, cool pool off Japan & Russia, West Coast warmth wrapping west south of Japan cold pool, stripe of warmth along US east coast, cooler in eastern Atlantic. Oceans fairly cold south of the equator. It's not a perfect match, but eyeballing it, I'd say it's 80-85%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 On 11/13/2016 at 10:46 AM, Roy said: I am usually of the mind to wait to call winter cancel, but this is getting alarming. Still plenty of time to turn around though. I'll tell you, 89 was a late arrival much like 15. I want a front to back winter but 13-14 is pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 I love 83-84. Love love love. Second most memorable winter for DFW. But to be honest, the background state is so much different. I don't know how you build a dome of cold like December 83 or even February of 1899. The globe is generally warm, particularly in NA. The cold over in eurasia won't help us if it has to go across a sea with less than normal ice and Canada without snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 31 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said: I love 83-84. Love love love. Second most memorable winter for DFW. But to be honest, the background state is so much different. I don't know how you build a dome of cold like December 83 or even February of 1899. The globe is generally warm, particularly in NA. The cold over in eurasia won't help us if it has to go across a sea with less than normal ice and Canada without snow. If it makes any sense, I think the pattern of 1983-84 is a decent match, but the warmer Earth/less ice against 1983-84 is part of why I have the winter fairly backloaded away from the east coast. I had NM/AZ and much of the interior west/mountainous areas warm Oct-Dec. Doesn't really look wrong. I do think TX starts to cool off a week or two before we do though. The cold coming off Asia should eventually cool the Pacific enough to allow the Arctic ice to build up pretty rapidly - especially since I think this winter has real blocking...but it is transient and no where near permanent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Glad to see some signs of cooling coming up at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 Record high at DFW today - 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 The JAMSTEC (Japan's model) has trended much wetter for NM/CO/TX for the winter. New Mexico went from 0.1-0.6mm below normal/day for 90 days (0.35-2.1 inches of precip below normal) to w/in 0.1mm/day of average for 90 days, i.e. w/in 0.35" of normal. Pretty big shift towards moisture for us. The West Coast looks a lot drier than before too, as does the East Coast. Bit cooler too, from "very warm" (+3F) to "slightly warm (+1F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Today will be very windy across NM and W TX with winds gusting to near 60 mph and even higher in the mountains. This system looks to come through dry out there outside of high elevation snow showers above the resorts. The front will move into N and E TX tonight bringing showers followed by falling temps through the day tomorrow. Temps could fall into the low 50s by tomorrow evening. The weekend looks cool with highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Saturday morning will likely be in the 37-45 range (the less wind the colder it will get). Sunday morning will likely feature widespread frost with some spots below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 hour ago, aggiegeog said: Today will be very windy across NM and W TX with winds gusting to near 60 mph and even higher in the mountains. This system looks to come through dry out there outside of high elevation snow showers above the resorts. The front will move into N and E TX tonight bringing showers followed by falling temps through the day tomorrow. Temps could fall into the low 50s by tomorrow evening. The weekend looks cool with highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Saturday morning will likely be in the 37-45 range (the less wind the colder it will get). Sunday morning will likely feature widespread frost with some spots below freezing. FWD has the point forecast low at 33 for the areas around me. So it wouldn't take much more for some in the northern areas to see the 1st freeze of the season. Also, maybe a rumble of thunder tonight!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 hour ago, bubba hotep said: FWD has the point forecast low at 33 for the areas around me. So it wouldn't take much more for some in the northern areas to see the 1st freeze of the season. Also, maybe a rumble of thunder tonight!? It does appear that there could be enough instability for a few storms of some intensity late today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Think we'll see a warm and dry winter. However, there should be occasional polar blasts as Siberia is already in the deep freeze with a mammoth snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 8 minutes ago, DoctorMu said: Think we'll see a warm and dry winter. However, there should be occasional polar blasts as Siberia is already in the deep freeze with a mammoth snow pack. Just curious why do you say that? At least for December, it looks cold with lots of blocking over the top setting up a parade of southern stream cold storms. Very cold air is possible if we can get a NE Pac ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Recent runs of the HRRR have been trending towards a more robust band of storms moving across DFW late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 00z Euro EPS seems to support the Euro Weeklies and a flip to a colder pattern in December. The PDO came in slightly more positive than September and MEI is trending negative. Kind of '83ish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 I had tons of lightning at my house this morning. The front looks to be moving into Tyler now so the rain is about to be over here and temps will fall to around 60. Signs are clearly pointing towards a cold December. If the EPO stays close to neutral I expect cool to cold with regular storms coming across our region. If the EPO dives then I expect bitter cold, but less storminess. I'll happily take either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 More good signs for December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Man things continue to look up! 18z GEFS is another positive sign with the US in the ice box the 1st week of Dec. Also, a theme that seems to be emerging is the cold diving right down the spin of the Rockies. The past couple of years it has seemed like every cold shot slide off to the east and we only got a glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Freeze warning for the area tonight! But it looks like FWD will officially stay above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Now that its getting relatively cold - two frosts here in ABQ) - I dug out & updated my "gambler's snow tables" for Albuquerque. It's a good way later in the season to see if the computer models are spitting out bull. The table reminded me how awful most La Ninas are in the Southwest for snow. I'm 5,300 feet above sea level, but the odds of getting even 3.5" snow in a MONTH, not even a storm, a MONTH, are only a coin-flip in a La Nina based on 1931-32 to 2015-16. One of these years we're going to get actual notable precipitation in March again and the items I've marked overdue should begin to fall more readily. We haven't had a March within even 20% of the long-term average (0.5") since 2007, so it would be nice if it happened this year. One thing is for sure, given the bubkis precipitation we get last March, even as it snowed in Guadalajara - check out Nieves en Guadalajara on twitter - we can't get less precipitation in March than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Looks like the first real snow for the NM mountains just in time for some powder for TWeek skiing. This looks to bring the first decent rain in a long time to E TX tomorrow. The post TDay storm looks to bring the first real storms of the Fall followed by chilly air. Then our first winter weather threat of the season comes in early December with -EPO, -NAO and severe -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Lots of lightning, heavy rain, mist and hail here tonight in the Land of Enchantment. Snow above ~7,000 to ~7,500 feet. Wettest November in Albuquerque since 2004 with over a week to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 30 minutes ago, raindancewx said: Lots of lightning, heavy rain, mist and hail here tonight in the Land of Enchantment. Snow above ~7,000 to ~7,500 feet. Wettest November in Albuquerque since 2004 with over a week to go. Cool pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 On 11/18/2016 at 10:03 AM, bubba hotep said: 00z Euro EPS seems to support the Euro Weeklies and a flip to a colder pattern in December. The PDO came in slightly more positive than September and MEI is trending negative. Kind of '83ish... And what do you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 First fantasy snow storm for N. Texas on the 06 GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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