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wxmx

Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

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The northern NM peaks could maybe sneak in a touch of snow this weekend especially Saturday night as freezing levels drop to near 9-10k feet with a bit of moisture.

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I’ll be back in Longview (East Texas) August 14-18. Haven’t been home in August since 2009.

Curious if I’ll be 101+ on more that one day!

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Still a good amount of snow up high in northern NM. Lakes are full and rivers running good. Great early summer up here.

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Those images of Guadalajara are pretty impressive. That's one way to cool the ground for sure.

Albuquerque just had its coldest January-June average temperature since 1998 - running nearly four degrees colder than last year so far.

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On 7/1/2019 at 7:11 PM, raindancewx said:

Those images of Guadalajara are pretty impressive. That's one way to cool the ground for sure.

Albuquerque just had its coldest January-June average temperature since 1998 - running nearly four degrees colder than last year so far.

Oklahoma City had its coldest January-June average temperature since 1993, and its fifth wettest such period on record.

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Last week was very nice in the mountains. Lows dropped as low as 35 with highs around 80 on the days it did not rain.

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4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has a Cat 1 into  the border of LA and TX at 144 hours

Quite a westward shift. Obviously still a long ways out, but at least it's something interesting to follow. Flooding will likely be the biggest threat (barring major intensification), but fortunately east Texas and LA haven't received as much rain recently as they did in spring, for the most part.

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On 7/8/2019 at 2:34 PM, cstrunk said:

Quite a westward shift. Obviously still a long ways out, but at least it's something interesting to follow. Flooding will likely be the biggest threat (barring major intensification), but fortunately east Texas and LA haven't received as much rain recently as they did in spring, for the most part.

Every model has a Cat 1 into LA.

Hopefully it fizzles out in the upcoming days.

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Finally topped 95F today in Albuquerque - pretty late for that to happen for the first time in a calendar year. Have yet to hit 100F officially. Some areas in town surely did today though.

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13 hours ago, cstrunk said:

Surprise, surprise, the MCS from KS is knocking on my door. 

It packed a punch wind wise. Still dealing with issues from it at the office in downtown Tyler.

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42 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

It packed a punch wind wise. Still dealing with issues from it at the office in downtown Tyler.

We had about 45 mph gusts, but only received a few sprinkles IMBY. Disappointing combined with the forecasted track of Barry shifting farther east. We probably won't end up with much from that either. 

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1 hour ago, cstrunk said:

We had about 45 mph gusts, but only received a few sprinkles IMBY. Disappointing combined with the forecasted track of Barry shifting farther east. We probably won't end up with much from that either. 

I got over a half inch in Hideaway. Yea, not looking like much rain from Barry in Tyler/Longview area, but maybe some heavy showers for far E TX.

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Streak of colder year/year highs looks like it may end this July. May continue - will be close. From Oct 2018 to June 2019, each month was colder than Oct 2017 to June 2018. July 2018 had a high of 92F. We're below that now, but a fair number of mid-90s look likely for the next week to ten days. 

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I've been attempting to refine my methods for predicting high temperatures anomalies in the SW in La Ninas. It looks like the ACE Index in the Atlantic is a pretty strong indicator. Historically severe Atlantic hurricane seasons, in La Ninas, tend to be very hot, dry winters in Albuquerque. I'm not even convinced this will be a La Nina, but just for reference, I thought this was interesting - the three hottest La Ninas were all absolutely terrible, life destroying hurricane seasons - 1933, 2005, 2017. The two La Ninas over 250 on the Ace Index are 2005-06 and 1933-34 - essentially low-solar, Dust Bowl BS patterns in each case.

D_kHoh-U4AAIbNE.png

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