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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


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September in Buda was very rainy compared to what I have come to expect in  this region at that time of year. We got 12.5 inches of rain last month. We have also picked up 4 inches of rain in Buda this month so far. I love El Ninos!

On another note however, the capping over AUS and San Antonio appears to be MUCH MUCH stronger than earlier advertised, so it looks as though tonight most of the rain will fall well east of I 35, then tomorrow most of the rain will fall well west of I 35.

I'm new down here in central TX. But it sure does seem that AUS tends to be in a precipitation minimum much of the time, lol. It'll be cooler Monday thru Thursday but probably just a few passing light sprinkles. I'll take the cooler weather with a north breeze tomorrow over tonight's 87/77 conditions.

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Tyler was still at 69 at midnight so no record cold high today, but there is a chance that tomorrow through Friday could set record cold highs. Tyler's record lows are in the 30s now so we won't quite get there. Tomorrow's record rainfall is is 2.00" so that will be challenged also. Averages for mid Oct in Tyler are 57/78 so way below that.

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36 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

GFS snows

Can't help but think this is a Freudian slip given the lack of snow the last few years. Hoping this year is different but the wettest falls are usually followed by well below average snowfall historically so not getting my hopes up 

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7 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Can't help but think this is a Freudian slip given the lack of snow the last few years. Hoping this year is different but the wettest falls are usually followed by well below average snowfall historically so not getting my hopes up 

Well the GFS is dang close to showing a white Halloween. Shades of 1993.

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This October cold spell here is already basically as cold as it got all of last winter for any sustained period. My analogs had an October high of 68F here. That may end up too warm....since through 10/17 we're already down to 68.4F for the October high.

The high of 68.4F for 10/1-10/17 is actually the 4th coldest in Albuquerque since 1931.

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18 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

 

Well the GFS is dang close to showing a white Halloween. Shades of 1993.

Wasn't it last year where models always had some sort of winter storm that was perpetually seven days out that just never came? Though I will say a snowy Halloween would be very fun 

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Going forward, this is probably a decent way to estimate final El Nino / La Nina strength in winter. The 100W-180W numbers come from here - 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

VfIyzo2.png

Implies around 27.6C for Nino 3.4 this DJF, give or take 0.55C or so, peak ONI of right around +0.5 to +1.5 against the 1985-2014 base NOAA uses (26.58C), just like the models show.

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Total precipitation in August & October has a lot of predictive power here for when the snowiest month will be within the Oct-May cold season. If you throw out 1948-49 when April was snowiest and the three years with "ties" for snowiest month, some pretty distinct patterns emerge for what to look for if a certain month is going to be snowiest.

Snowiest August October
Nov 1.74" 0.51"
Dec 1.71" 0.94"
Jan 1.47" 0.61"
Feb 1.13" 0.70"
Mar 1.44" 1.40"
     
2018 0.95" 1.64"

Prior to the heavy rains over the past two days, February's composite was closest to what we observed in August & October. With the huge rains in October, MARCH, which hasn't been wet in Albuquerque since 2007, is now the closest composite. That being said, some years when December is snowiest have big Octobers too, but the data at least implies a secondary stormy period in February-March. My main issue is Albuquerque has only had over three inches of snow in March one time since 1931 in a year without high sunspot activity (3/1975). "High" I define as an average of at least 55 sunspots per month from July-June. Every 100 sunspots on an annualized basis is worth about 0.11" in Albuquerque, so the March number for precipitation would be 1.10" if the blend below holds. Snow would also be lower if the sunspot idea is correct, closer to four inches instead of six, and even four inches of snow would be the highest March snow total in Albuquerque in a low-solar year since 1931. The other (low) possibility is that the solar minimum is now, i.e. Oct/Nov 2018, and we will rapidly ramp up in activity by March allowing a big snow total as shown below.

If the composite idea is correct, 1957, 1972, 2004, 2004, 2004, 2015 blended together is a near perfect match to July-Oct precipitation by month here, and all of those years but 2015-16 had their top snowfall in March.

DqZVmc0U0AAY6k3.jpg

Snow Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total
1957 0.0 0.0 2.9 2.3 0.5 7.3 0.0 0.0 13.0
1972 0.0 2.9 1.2 9.5 1.8 13.9 8.1 0.0 37.4
2004 0.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.5 0.0 6.9
2004 0.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.5 0.0 6.9
2004 0.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.5 0.0 6.9
2015 0.0 0.0 7.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8
Mean 0.1 1.3 2.0 2.3 0.5 5.6 1.6 0.0 13.5"
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I had to adjust my precipitation replication analogs with the rains in late October here - we had 1.99" for the month. The simplest blend I could come up with in an El Nino is 1941, 1957, 2004. That gets July, August, September and October within 0.2" each month v. 2018 observations. Those years all have major hurricanes hitting the Gulf of Mexico too.

It is interesting to note that all of those years were part of multi-year warm events (though 2003-04 was a Warm Neutral). These years also all feature pretty major snow storms in March, which essentially never happens here (in the valleys) without high sunspot support. Will be interesting to see if maybe the sun rapidly starts getting active again, or if this is some kind of grand exception to the March sunspot snow rule. 28% of years (15/53) with over 55 sunspots from July-June see heavy March snow, but in all others, only 3% (1/34) do.

lVW129Q.png

There are actually at least two other blends that work for July-Oct, but they have more years. November should be clarifying - all three replication blends have an active November, around 0.8-1.0 inches of precipitation. I think the blend must still be off a bit - mostly because I think we'll get pretty good snows in December this year.

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A lot of the things I'm seeing (relatively) independently point to a wet and/or cold March in the SW US and Northern Mexico.

Very Positive NAO in October:

Drhd1e8UUAAh7py.jpg:large

Hurricanes hitting the Gulf of Mexico in the hurricane season before an El Nino winter.

mtIo4hH.png

Albuquerque 2F below average (1931-2017 basis) high for October (71.3F = average) and November (57.3F = average) in an El Nino year. We were 66.8F in October. November looks cold now too, with a high of maybe 38F on Monday?

cd67.0.60.31.313.14.3.23.prcp.png

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39 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Where are you seeing this info?

Which portion are you referring to? If the Wed event, there will be a strong closed low crossing the state though it looks like it may stay positive tilted so it will struggle to get enough moisture. Chances go up the further NE you are though it could wait to produce until it reaches Arkansas.

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9 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Which portion are you referring to? If the Wed event, there will be a strong closed low crossing the state though it looks like it may stay positive tilted so it will struggle to get enough moisture. Chances go up the further NE you are though it could wait to produce until it reaches Arkansas.

Yep it was the Wednesday event! Just wasn't seeing it discussed anywhere else so was curious 

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