Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

wxmx

Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

Recommended Posts

I've decided to roll with 1934, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 as my Fall analogs. Cold AMO ring, slightly positive PDO, El Nino developing, La Nina in prior winter, low-solar, similar Modoki structure, and similar Monsoon conditions. So we'll see how it does.

Dlk2pBYUYAUHPmL.jpg:large

4xyIjAY.png

We had near record November highs here last year (65.4F, average in Nov is 57.3F), so that is the main reason for the huge drop off expected. Going from +3.3F for Fall highs to -1.4F for Fall highs against 1951-2010 is what the analogs get for Albuquerque.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, I missed again on the localized thunderstorms the last two days. Close, but no cigar. Frustrating. 

NWS gives us a 20% chance today, followed by a dry day or two before 40-50% chances return Sunday through Tuesday. Crossing my fingers. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

61F at noon here in Albuquerque. We had a rare significant rainfall event in the morning - easy way to get a cold day here in the Summer. Likely our first day not hitting 80F since June 16th.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow. Send some of that up here. 88 F today after 80 predicted. Getting real dry again. About 0.75" rain in the past month and a bit over an inch the month before that. I think that qualifies as a nonsoon. My water bill is stupid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I ended up with around 0.5" yesterday and today. Definitely needed. We only made it into the mid 80's today which was wonderful for Labor Day in Texas. 

I'm hoping we can cash in on some of the moisture from Gordon later this week, too. It seems like he might go a bit too far north/east. Something to track at least. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Buda is in northern Hays County, about 15 miles south of Austin along I 35.

We received 3 inches of rain this afternoon. We are even more thankful for that rain, it is needed down here, and now I am praying other parts of Texas get much needed rain, but not flooding.

The grass is already responding to the recent rainfall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sept 1-3 average high temperature (77.33F) is the third coldest start to September in Albuquerque since 1931. We're 10% of the way through the month, and more rain seems to be coming this week, so will be hard for highs to rebound much. Pretty decent odds of a cold September now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like I'll miss out on most of the Gordon rainfall, but the residual tropical moisture combined with a trough of low pressure/cold front moving into the region late this week is forecast to bring some good rains to the area. Hopefully 2"+ like the WPC has shown on their QPF map.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like Austin lucked out on this round, I am not sure how it is happening, but all of the rain is going around us. I sure feel sorry for places to our west and north, the rain has been torrential and relentless in those areas for the past few days.

I hate when it rains on my outings here. It wont today or tonight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Officially got 0.31" of rain today. That brings June 15-Sept 9 to 4.50" exactly for Albuquerque. The 1931-2017 mean for June 15-Sept 30 is 4.32". So we've had an above average monsoon here now. For June 15-Sept 9, against 1981-2010 we're about +17% now, against 1931-2017, +28%.

El Nino cold seasons after a wet monsoon tend to be snowy here - (long-term snow mean is 9.6")

hlr13ZI.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I ended up getting 0.4-0.5" of rain spread out over the weekend. Gordon never made it this far west, so totals were less than expected.

Light rain expected today and through much of the upcoming week. These lower temperatures are sure nice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I remain optimistic for this winter. There isn't a huge signal for extreme cold or extreme wetness here, but compared to last year, average is going to seem pretty great. My winters with <=50% of normal DJF precipitation and highs 3F or more above the long-term mean are pretty rare - 1933, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2013 and then last year. The following years, 1934, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2014 are varied, but overall, the signal is for a somewhat wet winter with average highs. Most of these years feature one fluke snow event outside Dec-Feb, Oct, Nov, Mar, Apr, May all had measurable snows.

My winter last year was close to a blend of 1933-34, 1985-86, 2005-06, so tentatively looking at 1934-35, 1986-87, 2006-07 for this year.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×