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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

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Some nice natural fireworks headed this way. Night into day!attachicon.gifimage.jpeg

 

Cool pic! The 4th of July went out with a bang for sure after working hard all day. We had that storm that came through just after midnight to get the day started, then storms first thing in the morning and then last night. All three were super energetic with lots of lightning. 

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DFW ended up with 3.20" yesterday smashing the daily record and locking in an above avg monthly total.

 

Looking at forecasts this morning, forecasters are really way overdoing the heat and not taking into account the rainfall. So many forecasts are even forecasting hotter temps than what the models are generating (which those usually don't take evapotranspiration effects into account). I don't see any triple digit readings at DFW Airport for the next 7 to 10 days. For one, the ridge really isn't all that strong, the winds are staying up keeping the boundary layer well mixed, and the record rainfall we have received are all working against triple digit heat. Everything is still quite green here due to the above average precipitation. Highs will continue to stay between 95 and 98 degrees. Yesterday's high was only 93°F and the low this morning 75°F well below what used to be the threshold of 78°F to maintain a Heat Advisory, plus heat index values stayed below 105°F yesterday. Coupled with the 71°F reading the prior morning, we are getting enough relief at night from the heat to forego any Heat Advisory. It could be so much hotter this time of year, and I really fell the heat is being blown way out of proportion.

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We could use more rainfall in CLL, although not the massive electrical storm from last week.  The heat index has been about 105°F+, but highs have not hit upper 90s yet. Agree the effects of the wet ground and overestimation of some of the ridging by NWS.

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We could use more rainfall in CLL, although not the massive electrical storm from last week. The heat index has been about 105°F+, but highs have not hit upper 90s yet. Agree the effects of the wet ground and overestimation of some of the ridging by NWS.

Yes. The soil is pretty much saturated. Actual temps don't really matter here because if it's 90, the humidity is insane. However the cloud cover from remnant storms combined with the moisture induced temps and southerly flow, makes this summer almost tolerable.

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Looking at forecasts this morning, forecasters are really way overdoing the heat and not taking into account the rainfall. So many forecasts are even forecasting hotter temps than what the models are generating (which those usually don't take evapotranspiration effects into account). I don't see any triple digit readings at DFW Airport for the next 7 to 10 days. For one, the ridge really isn't all that strong, the winds are staying up keeping the boundary layer well mixed, and the record rainfall we have received are all working against triple digit heat. Everything is still quite green here due to the above average precipitation. Highs will continue to stay between 95 and 98 degrees. Yesterday's high was only 93°F and the low this morning 75°F well below what used to be the threshold of 78°F to maintain a Heat Advisory, plus heat index values stayed below 105°F yesterday. Coupled with the 71°F reading the prior morning, we are getting enough relief at night from the heat to forego any Heat Advisory. It could be so much hotter this time of year, and I really fell the heat is being blown way out of proportion.

 

The models have been too warm and too dry in the medium to longer range but eventually they will be right (it's summer in DFW after all :lol:). The Euro EPS has been pretty constant with showing the first 100's for DFW around mid-month but even that isn't a slam dunk, esp. if we keep getting these sneaky rain events. Like you said, the ridge keeps under performing and hasn't been able to beat back the low level moisture. I wouldn't be surprised to see afternoon storms pop again over the next week or so.  

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Can see some really nice cloud tops on those southern Oklahoma cells, they look to be maintaining or strengthening. That should allow them to develop a cold pool and start pushing southward towards DFW. HRRR seems to support this, so maybe some storms later?

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Cluster of strong storms dropping south towards DFW from the Red River.  The DFW area sure has been getting lucky with these lately. We could use some rain a bit farther east.

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Radar and sat looking good for storms to maintain into DFW this afternoon

 

Cm8wBA_VYAAzH5X.jpg

 

First SVR just issued and radar is showing some decent winds.

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SPC not thinking a watch will be necessary

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0337 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 092037Z - 092130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AS IT PROPAGATES INTO THE METROPLEX.

DISCUSSION...SLOWLY ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MIGRATED

SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY INTO

THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE METROPLEX. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS

HAS GENERATED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND

NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PW CONVECTION

PROPAGATES WEST OF SOUTH INTO THE METRO. WHILE SFC TEMP/DEW POINT

SPREADS ARE NOT THAT GREAT...WATER-LOADING DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD

ENCOURAGE STRONG WINDS.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 07/09/2016

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I appreciate all the hard work y'all put into this forum. I always enjoy reading it!

Anyways, I was surprised by the strong wind gusts here in Krum. It's been an interesting start to the month.

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Interesting seeing that storm pop up S of Midlothian with decent gusts in its own right, and drift northward, all while the main complex drifts S.  I wonder if it will flare up when it encounters the OFB or if will kill the updraft.

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Fairly substantial outflow is pushing west, south, and eastward, firing new convection as it passes. I'm hopeful that with this eastward progression it might trigger a storm IMBY!

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The eastward moving storms appear to have overtaken the outflow and are ramping up again. Also, maybe a meso/ wake low forming over Collin County?

It's funny you bring up a wake low. I was looking at famous heat bursts earlier this week in anticipation of these storms.

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