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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

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12z Model suite have 500mb pattern not conducive for Texas penetration of Arctic air next week. All three, CMC, GFS, and ECMWF show stronger ridging and push the coldest air across the Great Lakes out into Atlantic. I have only looked at 12z GFS operational and it follows with eastern push of cold air.

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31 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

12z Model suite have 500mb pattern not conducive for Texas penetration of Arctic air next week. All three, CMC, GFS, and ECMWF show stronger ridging and push the coldest air across the Great Lakes out into Atlantic. I have only looked at 12z GFS operational and it follows with eastern push of cold air.

The operational is flip flopping between all kinds of solutions in the long range, but the ensemble still look cold. Our cold this month will not come from a big upper level trough so unless we have major ridging we will get cold as the -WPO looks to continue and western Canada stays very cold.

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For some reason I really enjoy watching these type little events evolve on the models. It is a nice borderline system for wintery precip which is always a very tricky forecast. Hopefully some of y'all catch a couple flakes though most will likely be freezing drizzle though if the moisture is as deep as the models show ten maybe some flakes can make it to the ground.

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12 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

For some reason I really enjoy watching these type little events evolve on the models. It is a nice borderline system for wintery precip which is always a very tricky forecast. Hopefully some of y'all catch a couple flakes though most will likely be freezing drizzle though if the moisture is as deep as the models show ten maybe some flakes can make it to the ground.

I prefer them to anything.  There aren't high expectations so I'm not chomping at the bit waiting for each HRR update.  If we whiff who cares?  It's when it's 48 out from a forecasted good event I freak.  

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The RAP and GFS soundings are pretty interesting with below freezing except right at the surface though they show ~70-75% RH throughout the column. The NAM is a couple degrees warmer, but with ~85-90% RH throughout. I would love a combo of those scenarios.

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25 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

Anyone seeing flurries? The cold seems to lagging, forecast for my area was a low around 28 and it is still 33 here. 

I don't know if the ASOS is reporting this correctly, but if so it matches up with that moderate band of echoes south of DFW 

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31 minutes ago, ams30721us said:

I don't know if the ASOS is reporting this correctly, but if so it matches up with that moderate band of echoes south of DFW 

c.PNG

Terrell also reports snow, radar shows a band moving east south of I-20.

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Models seem to have handled temps and precip very well. Band of light snow stretches from the Permian Basin to East Texas though the eastern half of that is having trouble reaching the ground.

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11 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

00z GFS looks to bring the coldest air of the winter to DFW next week.

Wow! The 12z Arctic Plunge may make this week feel like Spring! :lol:

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34 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

I would love to see some wintry precipitation around Christmas, as long as it doesn't mess with my drive to Iowa from DFW on the 26th!

The roads should be plowed all the way to Iowa by the 26th based on the Christmas Eve snow map :lol: 

CzLEuueXUAQixLQ.jpg

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Upper levels setting up beautifully for a cold and snowy patter leading up to Christmas. Details will be fine tuned but this is what we have been dreaming of for months based on analogs. Maybe this will be a warmer but snowier 1983.

Still 37 here with snow on radar all day though nothing has reached the ground.

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So after looking at the recent guidance, one trend stands out.  It seems to be a gradual but persistent "press" where the cold gradually sinks rather than blasts through.  These patterns are awesome because once they set in they are slow to move.  Even better we are on the fringe which means our precip chances go up.  The last three days of the 00z GFS are fun to look at.  

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The mean high for Albuquerque Dec 1-8 has been ~3.7F below the 1931-2015 normal. Will be interesting to see if it can really recover to +2F to +3F for the month as Accuweather shows now. I think the coming warmth in the next few days is real, but overdone beyond that.

Been pretty impressively cold in the West so far in December if you look at the Weatherbell Satellite maps (1981-2010 anomalies) or the US Anomaly maps (NE US Regional Climate Center). 

My mean highs eight days into meteorological winter (DJF) are 6.3F colder than last year. Over the 90-day winter period that's already a shift of ~0.55F (8/90)(-6.3) from last year that should help against the coming and future warm ups.

 

 

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The 00z Euro looks like it could produce a big storm beyond D10. Plenty of cold sitting on top with lots of energy back in the SW. If the ejection and timing were right, that could result in a classic storm. 

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The models this morning are not our friend. The Arctic front this week will ooze south against the means, but the core of the cold looks to go north and east of Texas. Basically, here it is just a regular cold front. The Arctic front by the 18th looks a little more promising, but all the operational models have backed off on the amount of cold air. The GFS noses the Arctic air to about Lubbock and then retreats it back north. When has that ever happened? Only the CMC 500mb mean looks to support cold air into Texas, the GFS and ECMWF are building the southeast ridge really strong keeping trough in the west. I mean huh? Looking beyond the 18th, the ECMWF on both the operational and EPS has no more Arctic air at all through the end of the month. Must be a product of the EPO and NAO forecast to trend positive. WPO is looking to stay neutral to negative. What a complete mess!

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2 hours ago, DFWWeather said:

The models this morning are not our friend. The Arctic front this week will ooze south against the means, but the core of the cold looks to go north and east of Texas. Basically, here it is just a regular cold front. The Arctic front by the 18th looks a little more promising, but all the operational models have backed off on the amount of cold air. The GFS noses the Arctic air to about Lubbock and then retreats it back north. When has that ever happened? Only the CMC 500mb mean looks to support cold air into Texas, the GFS and ECMWF are building the southeast ridge really strong keeping trough in the west. I mean huh? Looking beyond the 18th, the ECMWF on both the operational and EPS has no more Arctic air at all through the end of the month. Must be a product of the EPO and NAO forecast to trend positive. WPO is looking to stay neutral to negative. What a complete mess!

Despite the models looking promising in the longer range from time to time the pattern always seems to go back to the default of the past few years. We can't seem to kick that theme of just getting glancing blows of cold air followed by rapid warm ups. 

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15 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

At least we have the Canadian on our side... 

 

gem_asnow_scus_40.png

Lonnnnng time lurker, first time poster.

06Z GFS on board with getting some wintery precip, into N Texas around the 20th as well. Hopefully this trend continues.

 

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