Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


wxmx
 Share

Recommended Posts

The track shifting east really eased the impacts in Longview. 35 mph gusts and only 0.40" of rain at my house. Glad I ended up with anything at all, 10 miles west of here they got zilch. 10 miles east of here they got over an inch and much more if you keep going.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got a bit of a surprise line of storms in NE TX late Saturday night. It was falling apart by the time it made it to my house (imagine that), but I still ended up with about 0.45" rain.

A lot of rain is forecast over the next few days for much of northern Texas and southern Oklahoma. I'm right on the edge of it - where storms will either stay just west and north of me or will fall apart as they make it here. But several models today showed 2-3"+ for Longview so we shall see, it will be close.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have had over 7" and radar estimates up to 12" north of Chandler which is just to my SW. This even continues today, but I think the heavy stuff is about over with. Now on to next week's cold front and if it will be Plains (GFS) or SW (Euro) based. The Euro has us briefly cooling down next Wed before 80s return by Thu and it has a cold Panhandle and back into NM where they could get heavy snow. The GFS has snow for the Panhandle and NM Tue into Wed with the front blasting through TX on Wed. The GFS has the chilly weather sticking around into the weekend. A GFS solution would threaten record low maxes and record low mins.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, cheese007 said:

Lows in the mid 50s during summer in DFW. 2020 continues to be full of surprises

Lows can fall into the 50s at DFW any month during year if conditions are right. In fact, they have fallen into the 40s in June before. Technically, we are in autumn, though not by traditional calendar standards as what most people call autumn. Meteorological fall starts September 1st. In meteorology, fall temperatures are measured from September 1st through November 30th. It has been as cold as 40°F in the month of September before at DFW. What will be far more interesting is the prospects for snowfall in the Panhandle behind this front and threat of freezing temperatures. If snow does fall, it will be the earliest ever recorded in the state of Texas and by a wide margin (record held by Stratford, Texas on September 27, 1936). A snowfall this early would truly be unprecedented. Also, any freezing temps reached would be the earliest on record for the state. This cold airmass really means business. Some models are still showing lows perhaps reaching 48 to 50 at DFW. If we fall into the 40s, it would be the earliest on record. Both daily low temp and low maximum temp records are in jeopardy both Wednesday and Thursday at DFW behind this cold front. This is really like a once in 100 year cold air outbreak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It will be interesting to see if the upper low hangs back enough that the front haha up. If so the cool down will be marginal east of I35. 

If the upper low does hang up then the NM snow could be impressive as it will prolong the duration of snowfall and allow ground temps to cool for more accumulations to occur. Above 7500' some accumulations are likely either way, but a slower upper low will allow for up to a foot above 9000'. 

There is a good chance for the first freeze and first snow in Texas during the first half of Sept since records began.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm looking forward to seeing if any flakes will make it into Albuquerque. I don't expect any accumulation, it is after all going to be 95 or so on 9/7. 

I'm also very curious to see what the US national temperature anomalies look like after this plows through next week, my tentative winter analogs from August are remarkably close for September so far, but it may change dramatically this week and I'll have to see if a re-weighting is necessary.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the northern NM peaks will see 8-16" of snow, with 3-6" at 9,000 ft and 0-2" for northern lower elevation towns. 

For areas east of I35 in TX we are clinging to hope from the NAM and CMC for the front to push at least partially into E TX. Behind the front highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 60s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Record cold temp set this morning at DFW of 55°F. The old record was 56°F set in 1941. If we fail to rise to 70°F (which will be close), then I believe another record will be set.

Turns out none of the models handled this cold front well at all with the ECMWF bias of hanging back too much cold air in the west as clearly evident (though it does get props for being the only model initially to show a cut-off low forming). However, that model was way too warm. Dense cold airmasses like this rarely ever get hung up out west and then retreat north as depicted on that model (extremely rare and bizarre case if that ever happens). The NAM was the only model to get it some what right, but it was even too warm on its low temps for DFW. The earlier temp forecasts of the GFS/ECMWF/GEM last weekend of 50s here was correct before they all went way too warm.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

High was only 55 today once again. So around ~30 degrees below average for the high.

This is one of the coldest starts to September here on record, at least for highs. I think it's 6th place - 81.5F (down from 89.1F as recently as 9/8).

Based on the historical 9/11-9/30 data for 1931-2019, roughly ~40% chance of a cold month (2F below average high or colder), less than 5% chance of a hot month (2F above average high or hotter), but still most favored for +/-2F compared to average. The high tomorrow is supposed to be in the 70s, so should drag the monthly average down some more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is a top five cold start to September here since 1931, through 9/13 (~43% of the month). Will be very curious to see if we can finish with a cold September. It does look warmer for the next week, but no 90s in the forecast. Any incoming smoke from the West Coast fires could also hold down temperatures during the day if it makes it out here in a thick plume.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

September looks like it will finish near average for temperatures here. One of the driest monsoons since 1931 for Albuquerque. The current October forecast on the CFS is very similar to 1964. Relatively canonical MJO phase five look for October, which makes sense as October is expected to be in phase five initially.

Image

Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

The main excitement for this winter will be how low can we get the temps. Its a great set up for a few short lived but severe cold shots. Can we get into the single digits with sub 0 for western N TX? It will likely be dry though. Hopefully we can get a couple NW flow high ratio surprises though. Beautiful weather after today though. Maybe some showers with each front then highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s post fronts. i do like seeing the rapid succession of the fronts, if that continues into winter maybe we wont see the big warmups between fronts. This is a winter where we could see some 90s in Feb though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...