Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


wxmx
 Share

Recommended Posts

19 hours ago, BrandonC_TX said:

Had a dusting of snow up near Texas Motor Speedway earlier today.

Had nothing significant here near DFW airport other than some wintry mix that ended up melting once it hit the surface but I think models did a fairly good job depicting the northwest to southeast temperature gradient.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The local NWS has Albuquerque in a Winter Storm Watch, along with much of New Mexico, for 3-8 inches of snow on Monday Night - Tuesday Night. 

The wind forecast has been trending weaker, but that still seems high for Albuquerque. I use Weather.US for the European wind forecasts by hour but it isn't loading the new Euro.

Dew point is currently 16F. So even tomorrow morning may see some wet bulb snow. I think we could fall to 36-40 before any precipitation moves in early Monday. By that point, I think the dew point is still around 22. If were 36/37 with a dew point in the low 20s, we'll find a way to snow. Then it will go to rain after. In any case, should be some good precipitation at least.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/12/2020 at 7:41 AM, cstrunk said:

I measured 4.1" of rain from yesterday through 7 AM this morning. 

Combined with 3.2" from earlier this week puts me at 7.3" for the week. 

I need to check my rain gauge and see what additional rain I got. The drive into the Arlington Convention Center for NTNGA's Trade Show yesterday morning was interesting in the heavy rain.

Also model teasing another Texas winter storm for the middle of next week. I have not looked at details on that yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/13/2020 at 3:36 PM, aggiegeog said:

I need to check my rain gauge and see what additional rain I got. The drive into the Arlington Convention Center for NTNGA's Trade Show yesterday morning was interesting in the heavy rain.

Also model teasing another Texas winter storm for the middle of next week. I have not looked at details on that yet.

I had another 0.7" Wednesday during the day, putting my 3 day total at about 8". 

The golf course next to my office had a wee bit of water in it.

 

Screenshot_20200215-100922_Photos.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The SOI crashes of late imply a very active late February period. We'll see how that goes. My 3.5 month repeat idea means that there should be some kind of big, wet/warm storm around February 23, given the big/wet/warm storm in early November. 

The late November pattern is early March on that time scale. If it verifies anything close to Nov 16-Nov 30 for moisture, it has the potential to be an all time wet March for the Southwest. 

I'm fairly optimistic for March. Almost every day has been below freezing in Albuquerque for at least a little while, for three months now. That's not going to immediately shut off, so we've got a real shot at March snow. The data supports it - if you sort Oct 1 - Feb 15 lows <=32F by year into the cold half, and the warm half, 83 and less is warm, and 84 and more is cold for the last 88 years. So the odds are far more favorable for (light) snow in March in years with more frequent lows <=32F.

We're at 86 for 10/1-2/15, one of the highest figures in the last 25 years, behind only 2009-10, and tied with 2000-01 and 1997-98. I don't buy a very snowy March though, we've only topped three inches one time in a low solar year, in over 30 low solar years. 

# <=32F                >0"            >=1"         >=2"       >=3"      >=4"        >=5"          >=6"
>83 Oct-2/15    84.09%    52.27%    34.09%   27.27%    13.64%  11.36%    9.09%
<84 Oct-2/15    47.73%    27.27%    22.73%    9.09%     6.82%     2.27%      2.27%
P-value              0.0002    0.0083    0.1186    0.0135    0.1456    0.0454    0.0836
 

Years with snow each month from Nov-Feb, like 2019-20, also heavily favor snow in March, compared to all other years. Almost 90% of years with snow each month Nov-Feb see snow in March, compared to only 60% in all other years.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The local weather service is talking about record precipitable water for Saturday for the date for New Mexico.

My winter outlook had 1.25" precipitation for Albuquerque for Dec-Feb. I have an experimental winter regression for El Ninos that said 2.10", +/-0.8" at 95% certainty for the winter. Currently 0.98", with 0.1-0.5" possible for the storm Saturday. Different formula had 0.47", +/-0.43" at 95% certainty for February - currently 0.38". Very curious to see how it all shakes out. Takes forever to test these seasonal regressions.

Winter high is currently 49.4F here. Up to 89 lows <=32F for 10/1-2/21.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The CFS continues to depict a wet period in week two of March for NM/AZ. The storm Saturday-Sunday, timing wise works well as the repeat of the 11/6 storm, both warm wet systems. If something big is going to come through, I think there is support for it to be around 3/7. That's the 3.5 month lag of the Nov 20th storm. It also may link up well with the collapse of the Typhoon hitting Australia this week. A big SOI crash around 2/26 or 2/27 supports something in that time frame. Typhoons are often associated with the biggest crashes of the SOI.

Image

 

Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we are going to see above-normal temperatures and precipitation at the beginning of March, perhaps the severe storm season could start to ramp up.  GFS and Euro are both depicting a storm system for the Southern Plains for early next week (around March 2nd), with what seems to be sufficient moisture return across Texas into southern Oklahoma.  We are still a ways out, so any model data should be taken with a grain of salt, but the modeled pattern caught my eye (with multiple low-pressure systems moving out of the Rockies on the GFS, and a big storm on the Euro). I'm a little concerned about the late-week storm (that should impact the Great Lakes with snow) scouring the Gulf of Mexico of moisture, though water temperatures are above average across much of the GoM.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, BrandonC_TX said:

If we are going to see above-normal temperatures and precipitation at the beginning of March, perhaps the severe storm season could start to ramp up.  GFS and Euro are both depicting a storm system for the Southern Plains for early next week (around March 2nd), with what seems to be sufficient moisture return across Texas into southern Oklahoma.  We are still a ways out, so any model data should be taken with a grain of salt, but the modeled pattern caught my eye (with multiple low-pressure systems moving out of the Rockies on the GFS, and a big storm on the Euro). I'm a little concerned about the late-week storm (that should impact the Great Lakes with snow) scouring the Gulf of Mexico of moisture, though water temperatures are above average across much of the GoM.

Yeah I agree to not put too much stock into ops models this far out but ensembles do favor unsettled weather around here first week of March so we'll see how it verifies.  Ensembles mid to late March don't look quite as favorable (at least for now).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Canadian is hinting at a wet March for NM - lots of 'wetter than normal' right near the border of NM/TX/MX. That's usually a wet pattern near the boundaries of the cold/warm zones.

Image

Huge SOI drops recently support activity around 3/9-3/10, which is the 3.5 month lag for the late November storminess in the SW.

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
29 Feb 2020 1007.73 1006.35 -16.14 -2.61 -2.97
28 Feb 2020 1009.06 1003.90 2.02 -1.81 -2.75
27 Feb 2020 1011.55 1003.50 15.90 -1.48 -2.76
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Current deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to convey a borderline historic precip maker for west Texas across the Permian Basin, Caprock, and points east toward San Angelo/Abilene. Looking at historical statistics for MAF, the highest March daily precip was recorded on March 6th of 1970, coming in with 2.13". Current guidance may be a step below on the prospects of the daily rainfall record, but coming into second all-time for a date (1.30" is #2), is well within reason. Progs are showing around 2-3 sigma above normal PWAT's within a broad zone of enhanced H7 VV's under the difluent area of the UL cruising south across the Lower Trans-Pecos. A broad shield of 1.5-3" of rain is well within reason for the setup along much of I-20 from Van Horn to Sweetwater (at least). Severe potential is slightly higher than normal given the steep mid-level LR's and area of shear down stream of the ULL on Tuesday. I think one hindrance will be the shallow cool airmass ahead of the disturbance, limiting the thermodynamic environment available for a more pronounced severe threat. Over toward the Rio Grande from Del Rio into northern Hill Country, a little more pronounced area of destabilization is probable, leading to an enhancement of the severe potential. It's quite the setup. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The European & GFS both have huge precipitation for New Mexico for the week starting 3/8. This is consistent with the big SOI crashes 10 days prior.

Also, the pattern is now at 3.5 months of a lag to late November, when Albuquerque had near two inches of precipitation from 11/20-11/29. The pattern has been repeating pretty reliably at a 3.5 month since December looked like mid Aug-mid Sept.

14 point drop 2/26-2/28 and 2/27-2/28, 32 point drop 2/27-2/29, 19.5 point drop 2/28 to 3/1, 18 point drop 2/28-2/29 - those are all enormous by historical standards, and similar to the magnitude of the November crashes. The early November, 30 point one day crash preceded that crazy Blue Norther (around 11/12 I think?) by 10 days.

1 Mar 2020 1008.31 1007.85 -17.47 -3.09 -3.24
29 Feb 2020 1007.73 1006.35 -16.14 -2.61 -2.97
28 Feb 2020 1009.06 1003.90 2.02 -1.81 -2.75
27 Feb 2020 1011.55 1003.50 15.90 -1.48 -2.76
26 Feb 2020 1013.13 1005.05 16.04 -1.72 -2.98
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...