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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


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1 hour ago, cheese007 said:

Coldest highs for DFW in most 10 day forecasts are in the upper 50s at the coldest. Might hit the 70s later this week. Makes me dread the summer

Maybe an early start to the spring severe season is in order?  Not going to comment on summer at this time.

GFS gives some threat across the SPC-delineated regions for Friday and Saturday though the Euro runs look more amped (bringing a fairly-humid warm sector as far north as the Ohio Valley next weekend); if those Euro runs verify then a stronger storm system would track from central Texas to the Midwest-Great Lakes region.

EDIT: The only cold I see for DFW is way out in GFS fantasy land.  I guess we know how that tends to go.

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GFS has backed off, but the Euro has accumulating snow for Albuquerque and much of New Mexico starting within five days now. Start time would be Thursday evening. Albuquerque had 0.3" precipitation for all of December, so that'd actually be the biggest storm in a while for us, if it verified exactly. 

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4 hours ago, cstrunk said:

The GFS has been advertising some kind of ice/sleet/snow event for western/central/northeast TX in the January 15-17th range mid-late next week.

The low level cold will be locked in but it is whether we have the moisture to allow for some frozen precipitation to materialize.  Like cheese said it's been some time since we've had something like this here. We're due lol. Last notable winter precipitation event in DFW area was February 2015 I believe with the FZRA.

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1 minute ago, cheese007 said:

March 4th-5th of that year was the last one. Funnily enough it was the 4th largest 24 hour snowfall at DFW on record

That was just before I moved here I knew it was sometime around then, and it was snow/sleet, not freezing rain.  Those two pictures in that link are hilarious.  Typical TX weather lol.

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GFS/Euro are starting to show some decent rain/snow for New Mexico on Thursday-Friday, with some help from the sub tropical jet stream. 

Up to 4.6 inches of snow at the airport officially. I still like January as a big precipitation month for Albuquerque - we'll see how that goes.

Elephant Butte Reservoir is 28.8% full right now. After all the snow melted last July, it peaked at 29.2% full. Should easily beat that - maybe with the next big precipitation event this winter. Elephant Butte likely will be the most full it has been since 2002 by Spring or Summer.

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Looks like we are nearing the pattern flip that everyone has been waiting on. The eastern 2/3 of the US will be under a good winter pattern finally come next week and it appears to have staying power. The southern jet looks to become dominant. After this weekend the GFS nor GEFS has any 50s, though no signs of cold either. Both also show near constant precip chances. With this pattern any decent shortwave could produce snow. We won't have to spend 10 days waiting on one potential storm that may or may not pan out.

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3 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

Looks like we are nearing the pattern flip that everyone has been waiting on. The eastern 2/3 of the US will be under a good winter pattern finally come next week and it appears to have staying power. The southern jet looks to become dominant. After this weekend the GFS nor GEFS has any 50s, though no signs of cold either. Both also show near constant precip chances. With this pattern any decent shortwave could produce snow. We won't have to spend 10 days waiting on one potential storm that may or may not pan out.

Maybe we'll get lucky but it sounds like we'll just get lots of cold rain... :)

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Looks like the STJ will really get cranking over the next couple weeks. NM and TX will likely see multiple snow events. This is Feb 2015 esque with a train of storms over an extended time period and not a Feb 2010 style big single event. In 2015 I had snow on the ground for two weeks straight.

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The GFS mid week next week is showing a strong Plains high moving south out of Canada with moist STJ slamming into it over Texas. The STJ dries out as it moves across the state and with no resulting surface low to pull in new moisture from the Gulf. For areas W of -35 and N of I-10 this set up is great and many could see a multi inch snow event. For areas E of I-35 the key will be to get a stronger upper air shortwave that translates into a surface low to pull in Gulf moisture.

The GFS and its ensembles hint at a couple more storms after next weeks all with potential for winter precip. Love this time of year when cold has had time to build in over the continent and the STJ starts cranking.

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