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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


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1 hour ago, David Reimer said:

The high risk 'bust' of 2017 is flashing in my mind in regards to Saturday. Conditions certainly do set up to support a significant severe weather event, but I'm not sure which mode will be dominant. A QLCS would result in plenty of damaging winds, hail, and brief tornadoes while a semi-discrete supercellular mode would probably have a substantial tornado threat. Lousiana is pretty much doomed at this point since timing is set up to support both modes out that way. I'm just not sure we'll get it done in East Texas before we veer or have VBV issues. Hopefully, we get more answers than questions with the 0Z model suite. We'll also have to see how far west the threat sets up on Saturday considering the slowing trend in data over the last day. 

I’m totally on mobile and shitty East Texas internet speeds but are the storms still going to come through Saturday morning? I think those end up playing a role in how quick the energy can kick out. 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I’m totally on mobile and shitty East Texas internet speeds but are the storms still going to come through Saturday morning? I think those end up playing a role in how quick the energy can kick out. 

Late morning into the mid-afternoon hours. After 4 PM the LLJ should be veering in East Texas with the tornado threat lowering. Lousiana is all sorts of screwed at this point. Tonight's NAM would suggest a fairly potent tornado threat with storms from the late morning through mid-afternoon in East Texas. 

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The mountains have been very warm lately except for a couple cold snow days. At 9K feet they have had highs in the 60s and even around 70 some days. Our place on Highway 518 has dropped from 50 this morning to snow now. Last Saturday was wild going from bare ground to snow covered back to bare ground multiple times in 12 hour period.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The flow on the Rio Grande River is currently around 10x higher than last April in parts of New Mexico.

This time last year, the riverbed of the Rio Grande south of Socorro was sandy, the edges of its channel strewn with desiccated fish. Even through Albuquerque, the state’s largest river was flowing at just about 400 cubic feet per second, exposing long sandbars and running just inches deep.

This year, the Middle Rio Grande is booming, nearly ten times higher than it was last April—and it’s still rising. Running bank-to-bank, the river’s waters are lapping up over low spots along the bank, nourishing trees and grasses, replenishing groundwater and creating much-needed habitat for young fish and other creatures.

Combined storage in Elephant Butte and Caballo is about 324,000 acre feet as of Thursday, or roughly 14 percent capacity. Last fall, storage in the two reservoirs dropped below three percent.

Levels in those two reservoirs matter not only to downstream water users, but also those upstream along the Rio Grande.

Since last May, New Mexico has had to abide by Article VII of the Rio Grande Compact of 1938. When combined storage in Elephant Butte and Caballo reservoirs drops below 400,000 acre feet, Colorado and New Mexico can’t store water in any of the upstream reservoirs built after 1929. This includes Heron, El Vado and Abiquiu reservoirs in New Mexico.

Now, water managers expect that New Mexico will be out of Article VII restrictions in mid-May.

Once that happens, the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, which supplies water to irrigators in the Albuquerque area, can start holding water in upstream reservoirs. They’re expecting to store about 40,000 acre-feet of water before water levels drop again later this year.

http://nmpoliticalreport.com/2019/04/26/rio-grande-roars-to-life-with-runoff/rg-abq-4-25-19.png?w=771

april-2018-rg-at-abq.png?w=771

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Seems like it's been a long time since we haven't had 2"-3" of rain in a week. Last nights storms brought 4.3" to my rain gage. The previous round last week brought 3". 

Lots of flooding issues across NE TX. More rain in the forecast before a nice brief reprieve over the weekend into Monday. Just in time for the Red Dirt Music & BBQ Festival! 

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22 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

Seems like it's been a long time since we haven't had 2"-3" of rain in a week. Last nights storms brought 4.3" to my rain gage. The previous round last week brought 3". 

Lots of flooding issues across NE TX. More rain in the forecast before a nice brief reprieve over the weekend into Monday. Just in time for the Red Dirt Music & BBQ Festival! 

Yep, it has been a very wet Spring and the GFS shows another foot over the next couple weeks. Flooding is going to just increase.

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No rain yesterday and the current batch is also staying south of I-20. Better chances later today here though. Good to have some break but areas S of I-20 in E TX got it good again yesterday.

Corpus is about to be hit very hard by that little meso low storm.

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6 minutes ago, Chinook said:

There is a confirmed tornado near Lubbock. The radar images have looked even more impressive after the tornado was reported

ETrG2vw.png

Very picturesque tornado (taken from Twitter, just don't know how to Hotlink) 

 

Credit: Mike Olbinski

D51pRhuWkAApHbx.jpeg

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  • 3 weeks later...

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