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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


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Now looking like we may have an I-20 Special for Saturday afternoon. An upper low traversing from south of Big Bend and NE along I-20 will bring a narrow band of heavy snow to west Texas and likely into N TX possibly extending into NE TX during the day Saturday. Temps become marginal as it heads east though dynamic cooling from the intense upper low could overcome that for brief periods of time. 

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Thursday and Thursday night maybe into Friday morning will be wild across Texas with strong storms and heavy rain ahead of the low and blizzard conditions on the backside. The sweet spot for snow among all models seems to be east of Abilene, but really anywhere north of I-10 has at least a slight chance for some snow mixing in.

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Big changes starting around New Year's and especially in January as the SSW event leads to a -AO. Just how cold will depend on the EPO. Moisture should continue to be prevalent through the winter. We are about to enter the much anticipated winter season. Enjoy the next couple weeks of near normal temps because those will be rare in the heart of winter this year. Fingers crossed for a few storms to hit jackpot for us. I still hold to my previous predictions of most spots in TX north of I-20 receiving seasonal snowfall totals of over a foot.

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Snow chances are increasing for next Wed across most of the state though I would say that NE TX is in the best spot to see something accumulate. About half of Euro ensemble members show accumulation for N & NE TX wit the Sulphur Springs area being the epicenter. Still too far out to really get into details though. This may be the I-20 tracking winter season closed low we have been waiting for. That said I still think the heart of our snow chances are mid winter (1/15-2/20ish).

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I am becoming concerned about the potential for icing early Wed before the deeper cold arrives for a transition to all snow. The globals struggle to see STJ moisture so I think there could be more precip earlier and further west than indicated now. Hopefully the cold is deep enough that most everything is either rain or snow. 

If this upper low can track south of El Paso the there is some high end potential for snow ala 2/11/2010 as the cold is here ahead of the moisture.

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2 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

I am becoming concerned about the potential for icing early Wed before the deeper cold arrives for a transition to all snow. The globals struggle to see STJ moisture so I think there could be more precip earlier and further west than indicated now. Hopefully the cold is deep enough that most everything is either rain or snow. 

If this upper low can track south of El Paso the there is some high end potential for snow ala 2/11/2010 as the cold is here ahead of the moisture. 

Should be interesting to watch, that's for sure.  And in fact, this morning's 6z NAM run is showing a potential icing event from the Hill Country up towards DFW, with greater ice accumulations showing up around Llano and Gatesville (with the event ongoing at the end of the run, though it's too early to delineate where winter precipitation may accumulate at this time). But like you mentioned, the GFS and other global models are not picking up on anything.

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4 hours ago, BrandonC_TX said:

Should be interesting to watch, that's for sure.  And in fact, this morning's 6z NAM run is showing a potential icing event from the Hill Country up towards DFW, with greater ice accumulations showing up around Llano and Gatesville (with the event ongoing at the end of the run, though it's too early to delineate where winter precipitation may accumulate at this time). But like you mentioned, the GFS and other global models are not picking up on anything.

12z GFS is showing that as well. Not exactly over DFW metro.

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The city had snow today. Very cold for most of the day, it was somehow 34F from like 11:45 pm to 12:05 am and then not above freezing at any other time on 12/31 or 1/1, so that kind of artificially raised highs on both days, oh well. Most of the snow today fell around 20F temps, so most places got 1-5" with only 0.05-0.20" liquid equivalent in town.

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This will be a very impactful storm for Texas with heavy snow for NW Texas, significant icing possible for west central Texas up through western N Texas and flooding rain for Central, SE and East Texas. And at the end Thursday evening and night the DFW through NE Texas corridor could see snow.

The upper low train looks to continue all winter and the real cold induced by the recent SSW will commence in mid Jan and last for a good while so snow chances will increase dramatically for many of us. This is still on tap to be a very snow winter for the state.

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I'm on the west side of Fort Worth and there is currently a light rain with temperatures just below freezing (31F), with most of Tarrant County (aside from the easternmost portions) also at or just below freezing.  Paved surfaces seem wet and not icy at the present moment, although there does seem to be a little bit of ice on surfaces that are less likely to retain warmth (like leaves and the metal railing just outside my house).  Concern for icing seems to be further west where precipitation has yet to develop (but will), as per SPC mesoscale discussion.

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Things seem to be going according to plan so far. Some freezing rain for western DFW but roads should be good. Watch out again tonight for the same scenario. Areas west of DFW could get more significant icing later this morning. Still looks like areas along and north of I-20 have a shot at snow under the upper low late tomorrow and through Friday morning in NE TX. Heavy rain for Central and East Texas will lead to some flooding issues as we have been wet for a while.

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6 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Looks like the freezing line is pushing a bit further through DFW now. Hearing reports of icing on elevated roads in western and northern DFW. Temps are nearing freezing in Dallas County now. 

Interesting note regarding the location of the freezing line.  Some of the personal weather stations on Wundermap (accuracy is a concern though) are averaging around 32 in portions of southern Dallas County (and close to it in Irving and NW Dallas County), and even in the areas that based on radar data appear to be just plain rain in SE Tarrant are averaging around 32 as well.

Here in west Fort Worth a light coating of ice has formed on my tree branches.  It will be interesting to see how far west the freezing line shifts over the next few hours, and part of me wonders if it will not shift as far west as forecasted.  Hopefully the freezing line shifts west out of DFW in the next couple of hours as forecasted, before there is an opportunity for ice accumulation to become a major issue.

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6 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said:

Interesting note regarding the location of the freezing line.  Some of the personal weather stations on Wundermap (accuracy is a concern though) are averaging around 32 in portions of southern Dallas County (and close to it in Irving and NW Dallas County), and even in the areas that based on radar data appear to be just plain rain in SE Tarrant are averaging around 32 as well.

Here in west Fort Worth a light coating of ice has formed on my tree branches.  It will be interesting to see how far west the freezing line shifts over the next few hours, and part of me wonders if it will not shift as far west as forecasted.  Hopefully the freezing line shifts west out of DFW in the next couple of hours as forecasted, before there is an opportunity for ice accumulation to become a major issue.

I wonder how quick temps will fall this evening esp if they only rise to 33 or 34 this afternoon. If temps get down around 30 then elevated surfaces will really become an issue tonight.

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