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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


wxmx
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I think is kind of a nuts winter personally, even though on aggregate it will probably come out relatively close to average in a lot of places. Part of me thinks TX could see some kind of fluke storm in late winter, like a blend of a Blue Norther with subtropical jet moisture.

October here is directly correlated to December in La Nina, so if we end up 3-4F colder, that alone favors more cold in the SW in Dec.

2016:   75.9F (+4.6F) -->49.7F

2017: ~72.5F (+1.2F) --> ??

I put this in the MO thread, but some of the analog years I like had good snows pretty deep into the South.

4u8cc1L.png

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Our front is into the Panhandle now, though the temperature change is very gradual with 50s still even as far north as Kansas. Expect a few showers with the front, more the further SE you are. For N and E TX expect the front tomorrow morning (before daybreak likely in N TX) so temps will likely be steady near 50 with cloudy skies and gusty north winds along with light drizzle possible in the afternoon. If forcing is stronger than expected maybe someone will see a sleet pellet or two. Saturday morning will feature a frost for many and a possible freeze if skies clear. The weekend looks nice although a bit chilly. Sunday morning could bring a freeze to NE TX. Halloween looks to be chilly and wet.

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Along with the blustery chill in the air, models are still moving the line of light showers currently near Abilene across the state north of I-20 producing very light rain possibly mixing with a few sleet pellets. This happens often post front during the winter but is very rare in October.

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I don't think this is a terrible winter for cold in TX or the SW. Might be for moisture...but it should be much colder than last year. The cold in October is displaced much deeper into the West than last October, which is what my analogs had for the winter. So its not going to be cold...we're just closer to the cold sourcing, so the cold shots will be more frequent and stronger.

 

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I much prefer cold in place and hope for precip than the opposite during winter. The -EPO could be the dominant factor again this winter so as long as the PNA is not too high we are in a good spot. With not much of a STJ to tap into our snow will likely come from NW flow which is hard to predict.

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One of the things I've always struggled with is trying to figure out the moisture signal in the SW in the cold season, since it is so dependent on the PDO. PDO+ seems to largely cancel out La Nina effects here except in November, April & May. But it looks like the PDO can be predicted by matching the Nino 1.2 reading in October before Nov-Apr, and also the PDO value for March-August before the Nov-Apr. There are never a whole lot of blends that allow an acceptable close blend on those two factors, but when blended correctly, you predict Nov-Apr surprisingly well, at least for the 10 years I have tested so far.

Long and the short of it is that Nino 1.2 was frigid in October, which should keep the PDO somewhat negative, but it was still positive in Mar-Aug, which favors for somewhat positive. So I don't think this La Nina forces the PDO super negative just yet. Going by the Nino 1.2 weeklies, Nino 1.2 was -1.4C in October, v. +0.3C last October.

(the blurred out years for 2009 are 1967, 1991, 1991, 1991) Oh and I left out 2011, which is a blend of 1952, 1971, and 1999.

f7qEN05.png

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

It won't be of much use for this winter, but I've been working on a "Modoki" calculator for winters - will be useful if we go into an El Nino. Works fairly well using Nino 1.2, Nino 3.4, Nino 4 SSTs (raw) in October, with a recognition that each Box, Box A, B, C, must be calculated separately for the Modoki number to work correctly. The weak La Ninas and weak El Ninos seem to have their cold directly controlled by the structure of the Modoki signature, and with Box C warming quickly over time relative to the other boxes, certain types of events are becoming more likely.

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  • 3 weeks later...
33 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I've never looked into this, but does TX tend to have dry winters after big hurricane years? Certainly seems like it in some of the analogs I liked.

My analogs for winter v. November 2017 so far -

Correct pattern, not great on anomalies.

We do seem to have dry years post hurricanes.

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12Z GFS starting to look pretty solid as to what I expect though it still is not as cold at the surface as I believe it will be. Looks like big front on Tuesday brings showers and storms, maybe more than an inch of rain for some in E TX. Behind the storms the coldest air of the season will move in. The most interesting part of the forecast is if there is energy left behind to our west, if so parts of Texas (especially W TX) will see some snow on Wed. Then we will watch to see if a surface storm can develop along the front, if it develops far enough west ie off the Texas coast then more of E and SE Texas could see a snow threat. This could be the first E Coast winter storm of the year. Additional cold shots should follow in pretty quick succession so no major warmups expected for mid month.

Lots of ifs in there, but we know that it will be mild into early next week then a big front will bring rain to much of the state followed by cold air for the latter half of next week and beyond. Hopefully some snow for many worked in there somewhere.

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Didn't really "design" my analogs for November, but the years I picked for winter (in Oct) did pretty well for the month. Anomalies will be closer once the maps become available only for high temperature departures, which is all I care about, lows are just about always way warmer than older years now.

DQAqVE9UQAEmgJY.jpg:large

 

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A line of showers and storms will develop along the front tonight, questionable if it forms before crossing the Metroplex, but E and SE Texas should see some rain from it. Temps will stay cool all week with freezes possible over E TX late in the week (of course W Texas will see freezes this week but that is normal). Precip looks to break out over West Texas tomorrow night with a mix of rain and snow falling as far east as the Hill Country Wednesday. This precip should be pretty light though the higher elevations could see some accumulations. There is some chance for a few sleet pellets into southern N TX (Brownwood/Waco etc). Light rain will move into SE Texas later on Wed. After the cool weather this week, next week look average until a potential big system develops near mid month. Hopefully we will get some interesting weather out of that, but way too far out to know much of anything.

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