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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


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AMO (North Atlantic) fell to 0.175 - big time drop from February, also a bit below last March. Way down from June-Sept when it was 0.40 to 0.50.

The Nov-Apr AMO value looks like it is the highest of this AMO+ cycle, barring another huge drop in April. The Nov-Apr value in 1952-53 was the last time the six months were above the current value. 1943-44, and 1944-45 were even warmer. 

I'd like to think the AMO/Atlantic will cool some next year, as we approach the flip year, and see an El Nino, but we'll have to see. 

I designed this "auto" analoging thing, and it thinks Nov-Apr 2016-2017 was closest to 1931-32, if you use Nino 3.4 (ONI in DJF), PDO (Nov-Apr), AMO (Nov-Apr), Solar (sunspots July-June), Modoki status in DJF, and previous year ONI in DJF. Tentative years closest to 2016-17 shown below. Close match on 3+ variables of the 7 counts as analog. The weighting is 3 = 1, 4 = 2, 5 = 3, 6 = 4, 7 = 5, essentially close variables minus two points.

I divided Modoki into five categories, 2, 1, 0, -1, -2. The two means "warm center, but greatest anomaly to East", one means "warm center, and greatest anomaly in center", 0 means roughly same anomaly in both during Neutral year, -1 means "cool center, greatest anomaly in center", and -2 means "cool center, greatest anomaly in east". It was interesting to see the years below select mostly -1 and 2, as both are warm in the east relative to the middle (Modoki La Nina and East based El Ninos).

 

  ONI DJF PDO N-A AMO N-A Sun Jul-Jun Prior ONI Modoki Mons (In)
1931  -0.3 0.38 0.186 25.1 1.3 -1 3.54
1931  -0.3 0.38 0.186 25.1 1.3 -1 3.54
1941    1.1 0.70 0.247 76.5 1.9 2 5.44
1976   0.6 1.04 -0.315 23.2 -1.5 1 3.10
1983  -0.5 1.45 -0.085 82.7 2.2 -1 2.94
1983   -0.5 1.45 -0.085 82.7 2.2 -1 2.94
1998  -1.5 -0.45 0.154 115.2 2.2 -1 3.40
Mean -0.2 0.71 0.041 61.5 1.4 -0.3 3.56
2016 -0.4 0.93 0.258 28 2.2 -1

3.09

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, Roy said:

It sure has. I think most are posting on the actual events pages now. But, I pretty much just lurk anyway. Hopefully tonight will be interesting. Just no huge hail IMBY please.

I tried to keep it going through the lame excuse for a winter that we had :lol:  I've mostly been posting elsewhere lately or just randomly on Twitter. 

With that said, the cap is still in place but things do look a bit concerning, esp for hail. I hate hail! The CAMs started giving hints yesterday that the main threat might shift south towards DFW today. Then the overnight run of the NCAR ensembles seemed to confirm that. Now to see what happens. 

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There is a winter storm watch for NE NM where they are expecting 6"+ of snow and a foot is possible in the mountains the snow will pour over into the Panhandles Saturday night. Around here on Sunday highs will struggle to reach 60 especially if clouds hold on like they did last Saturday. Along with the chill will be heavy rain on Saturday for North and East Texas.

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The 95th percentile from WPC has nearly 3 feet of snow in northern NM from this system, let's hope the forecast below doesn't "miss" low - a lot of people could suffer if the bust misses in the wrong direction.

I'm expecting flurries-2" in Albuquerque, depending on how powerful the band is that moves over the city. Any intense precipitation should temporarily go over to snow and possibly accumulate on the ground.

april 29 forecast.gif

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Canton is in the middle of some very rough weather right now possible tornadoes to the NW and SE. This is First Monday weekend so there are a bunch of additional people in town likely. Still not much here but we have all evening to go and the storms are not far off along with watching new developments.

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Mountains and higher valleys in the northern half of New Mexico got pasted with this system - definitely the most snow I've seen from a late system here. I was asleep until 2 pm but it seems to have snowed at the airport around 7 am and then again around 11 am, and it stuck enough to dust the ground.

I didn't have any days in March in Albuquerque with highs <50F. We've had two in April, and if the front had come through an hour earlier yesterday we would have had a midnight high then of 45F or something, which would have been three days <50F.

Still waiting on the official number from NWS ABQ, they reported a picture of the snow earlier but no total.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Finally got a decent rain, nearly 4 inches, in north Fort Worth.

Wish it fell under the official reporting station, too....they didn't get half that but still over an inch at least.

It was direly needed.

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FWD just tweeted out that Arlington Municipal Airport picked up .85" in 8 minutes.  Good to see the metroplex cashing in here in the first couple days of June after a relatively dry May and before the ridging takes hold.  I would say that the DFW airport totals for the month (4th dryest May) is a bit fluky and are not totally representative of conditions around the metro as a whole, but no doubt it was dry, particularly on the western side.  Areas further east did a little better... also north up by Denton.

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CPC has this feature called "constructed analogs" - it recreates ocean conditions forecast from historical conditions from 1948-2017. I was paying with it earlier, was able to match (relatively) well with what their most recent update has for Dec-Feb by using 1976-77 (x2), 2004-05 (x2), 2006-07 (x4), 2009-10, 2014-15. 

Would be kind of a legendary winter here if it verified: cold, consistently wet, snowy. My analogs were based off of AMO/PDO values for Nov-Apr, ONI values Dec-Feb in Nino 3.4, the ONI value the prior DJF in Nino 3.4, Modoki status, sunspots July-June, Monsoon rains in Albuquerque. Close years get points. The weights were tricky, but I settled on a system of 15 points, where the AMO (3), Sun (3), and ONI (3) count most, followed by Modoki status (2), prior ONI (2), and then the PDO (1) and Monsoon rains (1).

Any year that has at least 8 points gets weighted at ((weight)-(7)). Values I used were:

Winter ONI DJF PDO N-A AMO N-A Sunspots ONI (P) Modoki=1 Monsoon
2009 1.6 0.43 0.200 13.2 -0.8 1 4.0
2006 0.7 -0.04 0.208 20.1 -0.9 1 9.4
1976 0.6 1.04 -0.315 23.2 -1.5 1 3.1
2004 0.6 0.47 0.222 55.3 0.3 1 4.1
2014 0.6 2.07 0.005 90.7 -0.6 1 5.7
1976 0.6 1.04 -0.315 23.2 -1.5 1 3.1
2004 0.6 0.47 0.222 55.3 0.3 1 4.1
2006 0.7 -0.04 0.208 20.1 -0.9 1 9.4
2006 0.7 -0.04 0.208 20.1 -0.9 1 9.4
2006 0.7 -0.04 0.208 20.1 -0.9 1 9.4
Average 0.7 0.54 0.085 34.1 -0.7 1 6.16
Expected 0.8 0.80 0.200 18.0 -0.4 1

5.75

AMO / PDO will probably be higher than I have - my system of auto-analoging was looking for the values I listed or expected, so it did a fairly good job.

SSTA Match NOAA & Raindance.png

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