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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


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Was doing some research earlier - when Albuquerque has more than 1.54" precipitation from Nov 1 - Jan 31, we are slightly more likely to have a Spring at least 20% wetter than normal than a Spring at least 20% drier than normal.  We had 2.58" precip from Nov-Jan, since it won't rain/snow the rest of the month.

The least likely outcome is a Spring within 20% of normal.

Wet Nov-Jan 

Wet Spring: 11/29

Dry Spring: 10/29

Moist Spring: 8/29

Believe it or not, the wetness in Nov-Jan offers essentially no clues on Feb-Apr wetness. The seven Nov-Jan periods w/in 10% of the observed wetness Nov 1 2016 to Jan 31 2017 averaged 1.53" precip for Feb-Apr, and 1.87" precip from Mar-May, i.e. a "wet" Spring (>1.2*mean) and a moist Feb-Apr. May after a wet Nov-Jan is almost 70% wetter than May after a dry or near normal Feb-Apr, only month where it made a big difference.

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The European has had snow for San Angelo since Tuesday guys :)

Don't know the implications for the rest of the country, but expecting it to be wet in the Southwest for at least part of the Spring. March is the wildcard. Probably warm though.

Have to say, I'm looking forward to the Canadian update for February, seeing lots of mixed signals for everything. March is probably a split of the Dec/Jan pattern. February might be the Nov pattern though...but with more cold.

Spring 2017 Expectations.png

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On 1/24/2017 at 10:39 PM, bubba hotep said:

Here is the D10 12z Euro EPS:

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.pngth 

That is basically a textbook example of the -5 day big -PNA loading pattern (basically the look 5 days before PNA would bottom out). This is Feb '89 3 days before a massive la nina cold snap in Texas (I don't remember why I didn't do -5 days but oh well, this looks a lot like the 12z Euro EPS at D12)

b6ycty.jpg

And then the Pacific jet retraction associated with that period:

258tfly.gif

Once again, this matches up pretty well with the 12z Euro EPS from today. 

Here is the constructed MJO analog:

C25iydoXUAA2j-1.jpg

 

The thing to notice is the suppressed convection out near the Dateline in the D6-15 period and the Indian Ocean convection. How that convection progresses through the IO makes or breaks the upcoming period. MJO or faster progression and winter is over, slower progression and that teleconnects to big -EPO. Basically, everything is coming together for a big cold dump b/w Feb 7 - 10th +/-, if the MJO plays nice. 

The MJO is quickly propagating and the torch is on for Texas. Maybe it will swing all the way round back to Phase 1 - 3 and we see some cooler weather by the end of Feb or March but climo starts working against us fast by then. 

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On 1/26/2017 at 2:12 PM, bubba hotep said:

Yea, I basically never look at the QBO but it does seem to fit in with the overall pattern so far this winter. It looks like Nov & Dec were both the most positive readings for those months ever in the data that I can find. 

The more I look at the QBO the more it appears to be playing a major role in the pattern. The wet California look is very +ENSO like but is also common during +PDO/+QBO winters. However, most +PDO/+QBO winters are also +ENSO, so the -ENSO is a bit of an oddity. I'm thinking that the +PDO/+QBO helps accelerate the atmospheric response to warming ENSO? The current run of +PNA looks a lot more like last winter than this winter and it looks to relax but then come back strong.

 

C3Xcko0VUAEtrS-.jpg

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Just for kicks was looking back at precipitation maps in January in the West ~2 years before the solar minimum year and you have a similar pattern. Very wet in Northern California, somewhat wet in much of the West, dry in parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast. Solar controls the QBO to some extent.

 

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6 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

The more I look at the QBO the more it appears to be playing a major role in the pattern. The wet California look is very +ENSO like but is also common during +PDO/+QBO winters. However, most +PDO/+QBO winters are also +ENSO, so the -ENSO is a bit of an oddity. I'm thinking that the +PDO/+QBO helps accelerate the atmospheric response to warming ENSO? The current run of +PNA looks a lot more like last winter than this winter and it looks to relax but then come back strong.

 

C3Xcko0VUAEtrS-.jpg

Yeah, I wish I had the data at my fingertips but the best way I can describe it is a stratospheric tendency.  If you've got a strong force teleconnection wise such a strong El Niño or strong La Niña, the QBO isn't going to change it.  However it can be an additive force.  A strong with a +qbo is just going to amplify the enso signal.  If it's negative, the hope for blocking is much better.  When the Qbo kept going positive my heart sank.  Just another nail in the coffin.  Next year we should be negative.  Emphasis on "should".

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15 hours ago, Quixotic1 said:

Yeah, I wish I had the data at my fingertips but the best way I can describe it is a stratospheric tendency.  If you've got a strong force teleconnection wise such a strong El Niño or strong La Niña, the QBO isn't going to change it.  However it can be an additive force.  A strong with a +qbo is just going to amplify the enso signal.  If it's negative, the hope for blocking is much better.  When the Qbo kept going positive my heart sank.  Just another nail in the coffin.  Next year we should be negative.  Emphasis on "should".

Yeah, who knows.  The QBO cycle appears to be disrupted by climate change...

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/unprecedented-disruption-atmospheres-pacemaker-foretells-wet-winter-europe

 

 

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I realized the other day that if Albuquerque and much of the Southwest doesn't get near-record precipitation this Spring, it will be the driest ten-Spring period on record. For Spring 2007 to 2016, we're just above the lowest ten year period on the backs of 2007 and 2015 which were wet Springs. But we're about to lose 2007. So we need >2.83" precipitation in Spring 2017 to avoid having the driest decade of Springs on record.

We've had ~7.86" precipitation from Spring 2008 to Spring 2016. Mean is 1.54" per year...so 2.83" would only get us to match the low point over a ten year period, and that level alone is nearly top ten for wetness, and over 80% above the long-term mean. Spring precipitation trends have beens very different from Winter here. Winters are ~25% wetter or so against the beginning of the period of record, while Springs are a bit drier.

Spring Precipitation in Albuquerque.png

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10 hours ago, DoctorMu said:

Yeah, who knows.  The QBO cycle appears to be disrupted by climate change...

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/09/unprecedented-disruption-atmospheres-pacemaker-foretells-wet-winter-europe

 

 

I saw that.  HM was tweeting about it.  There was another met (I think Sam Lillo but get me to lying) that had done some work on it.  Seems the theory was that the forcing from last year's El Niño was so strong it disrupted the QBO.  One of the most regular oscillations in weather went AWOL.  

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8 hours ago, Quixotic1 said:

I saw that.  HM was tweeting about it.  There was another met (I think Sam Lillo but get me to lying) that had done some work on it.  Seems the theory was that the forcing from last year's El Niño was so strong it disrupted the QBO.  One of the most regular oscillations in weather went AWOL.  

I also remember seeing some stuff posted showing SSW were less likely during +QBO or they occurred much later in the winter.

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53 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

Today's 0z and 12z ECMWF and the 12z GFS are jumping on board to a major Arctic air intrusion into Texas around Feb 8th time frame. CMC looks like it is on board as well. The MJO looks to be heading to phase 8 about that time. What do you all think?

Looks like a fast mover.  What I wouldn't give for some blocking.  

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Winter to date - temperature anomalies. ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_DJF_anom.png

I didn't have the cold centered far enough West (pending February of course), but I did have the entire East warm. That looks good. Had the cold centered on eastern Montana not western Montana. I did have California wet, north of Los Angeles, kind of proud of that given all the "warm and dry" forecasts in the SW. The entire West has either been cold (NW & CA) and/or wet (SW). Not the usual doom and gloom La Nina / Cold Neutral winter out here.

 

Wet in last two months.png

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5 hours ago, Quixotic1 said:

Looks like a fast mover.  What I wouldn't give for some blocking.  

Maybe the PV will breakdown and help out? But my understanding, that probably won't contribute to blocking until later on in Feb or March? The MJO progression certainly supports a glancing blow of cold, if you buy that the atmospheric response to Nina is rapidly fading. 

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It's interesting looking back at the Canadian last year. Initially (Dec 1 2015) it had the West cold in March, and then it trended warmer each month, until realizing on March 1 that the whole country would blow torch, which happened. This year initially (Dec 1 2016) it had the West warm, and has been trending much colder, with the East warm each run. The Canadian is fairly useless for precipitation, but it does OK with sniffing out the cool/warm split, an area that trends blue/red tends to show up as white initially two months before as it tries to figure out anomalies, and then it tends to fill in as red/blue right before the month.

2015-16 Canadian Trended Warm in March.png

2016-17 Canadian Trended Cold in March.png

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I put out a Spring outlook if anyone is curious. In terms of oceanic conditions and the observed weather here in Nov-Jan, Spring 1997 did pretty well (borderline La Nina '96-97, wet in the SW, warm AMO, positive PDO, likely heading into an El Nino, nearing solar minimum, and so on). If you all like the cold weather in the Northwest...it's not going anywhere. Anyway, link is below. 

https://t.co/GZ6OMiARuU

Be curious to see if anyone has thoughts...it's going to live/die with the MJO.

 

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8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I put out a Spring outlook if anyone is curious. In terms of oceanic conditions and the observed weather here in Nov-Jan, Spring 1997 did pretty well (borderline La Nina '96-97, wet in the SW, warm AMO, positive PDO, likely heading into an El Nino, nearing solar minimum, and so on). If you all like the cold weather in the Northwest...it's not going anywhere. Anyway, link is below. 

https://t.co/GZ6OMiARuU

Be curious to see if anyone has thoughts...it's going to live/die with the MJO.

 

Cool, I'll take a look tonight. I've kind of been kicking around '09 as an analog for the upcoming summer and then on into fall, esp. if the QBO switches. Winter '09/10 was Nino, weak +PDO, with a QBO switch during the summer. I'll have to do some more digging but Nino with -QBO has historically been a pretty good combo for Texas. 

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1 hour ago, bubba hotep said:

Cool, I'll take a look tonight. I've kind of been kicking around '09 as an analog for the upcoming summer and then on into fall, esp. if the QBO switches. Winter '09/10 was Nino, weak +PDO, with a QBO switch during the summer. I'll have to do some more digging but Nino with -QBO has historically been a pretty good combo for Texas. 

09-10 was awesome.  I'd take it.  Low solar too.  I expect blocking to improve next year.

as for this year, killdeer are here in force.  That is pretty much a tombstone for us.

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21 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said:

09-10 was awesome.  I'd take it.  Low solar too.  I expect blocking to improve next year.

as for this year, killdeer are here in force.  That is pretty much a tombstone for us.

I'm still holding out hope for the last week of Feb into 1st of March. Was it two years ago that our whole winter was basically two weeks at the end of Feb? One small system then a nice winter storm. I'll have to go back and look.

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