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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


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5 minutes ago, Captmorg70 said:

Yea I agree they may be a bit conservative. Though this setup seems rather tricky. It seems that it really comes down to how much moisture is there when we have better forcing and how quickly it dries out. I kinda miss the storms where we're worried about the cold instead... :lol:

Last year was obviously a massive bust but the last few years prior we always seemed to have at least one system that wasn't supposed to do anything turn out to be an 1" or more. I remember one that ended up being thunder snow and nearly 2", forecast the night before was for cold and cloudy. 

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33 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

Last year was obviously a massive bust but the last few years prior we always seemed to have at least one system that wasn't supposed to do anything turn out to be an 1" or more. I remember one that ended up being thunder snow and nearly 2", forecast the night before was for cold and cloudy. 

The bigger positive busts have been due to troughs/short waves slowing down.  Don't forget the cold.  Higher ratios could help push us over 1".  Haha

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I went for a walk once it started snowing here. It completely froze to my beard and I had little snow icicles coming down my face. New for me. We had borderline Blue Norther conditions - 45F at midnight to 16F at 4 am. 2-3 inches of snow on the ground, 1-2 on the road since it was 16-20F when most of it fell.

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Flurries in north Fort Worth. A bit of a surprise this early. We have to go to Abilene tomorrow, so while I want a surprise decent snow after not seeing anything last winter really, I don't want too much. Lol We can reschedule if needed luckily.

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Had flakes when I was walking out the door in SW Arlington, drove through a decent sized burst on 20 near the East loop 820 merge.. NBC5 is saying that this is Lake Effect off of Lake Grapevine... Not sure I'm buying that but okay whatever. 

 

Getting some light flurries now at my office in Downtown Ft Worth, hard to tell since I'm 33 stories up

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26 minutes ago, jhamps10 said:

Had flakes when I was walking out the door in SW Arlington, drove through a decent sized burst on 20 near the East loop 820 merge.. NBC5 is saying that this is Lake Effect off of Lake Grapevine... Not sure I'm buying that but okay whatever. 

 

Getting some light flurries now at my office in Downtown Ft Worth, hard to tell since I'm 33 stories up

I can buy the lake effect idea with NE winds off of the lakes and temps in the low 20s. Lake effect snow is not as rare as you would think when temps get this low with wind blowing decently around here.

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1 hour ago, jhamps10 said:

Had flakes when I was walking out the door in SW Arlington, drove through a decent sized burst on 20 near the East loop 820 merge.. NBC5 is saying that this is Lake Effect off of Lake Grapevine... Not sure I'm buying that but okay whatever. 

 

Getting some light flurries now at my office in Downtown Ft Worth, hard to tell since I'm 33 stories up

34 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

I can buy the lake effect idea with NE winds off of the lakes and temps in the low 20s. Lake effect snow is not as rare as you would think when temps get this low with wind blowing decently around here.

 

The radar returns are lining up pretty well with Lake Ray Roberts, Lewisville Lake, and Grapevine Lake. Lake effect snow in DFW... who'da thunk it?

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5 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

 

The radar returns are lining up pretty well with Lake Ray Roberts, Lewisville Lake, and Grapevine Lake. Lake effect snow in DFW... who'da thunk it?

I think we had some around here with the early March 2014 storm the morning after we had a few inches of sleet it was in the teens with flurries and breezy winds. We don't have as big of lakes around here as DFW does though.

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902 
FXUS64 KFWD 061745
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1145 AM CST Fri Jan 6 2017

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
This section is a technical discussion of the dynamics for winter
precipitation to point out the features we are watching closely
through the afternoon. The forecast remains on track. See
earlier update for that type of forecast information.

Precipitation is continuing north of I-20 as the upper level
shortwave trough approaches. This is causing frontogenetical lift
to increase near 700 mb which is the critical layer for
precipitation in this event. Parcels lifted near 700 mb are in a
region characterized by weak convective instability (CI) or
conditional symmetric instability (CSI) as depicted by EPV*
charts. The strongest frontogenesis at 700 mb coincides very well
with the location of a band of heavier snow from roughly Lawton,
OK to Hobbs, NM. This band is tracking southeast, along with the
best frontogenesis forcing, and therefore we can use 700 mb
frontogenesis forecasts as a proxy for the location of heavier
snows.

While a radar loop would imply that this band will be tracking
through North Texas around mid afternoon, there a couple of
factors that will cause this precipitation to weaken. The first
being that all models forecast the frontogenetical lift at 700 mb
will begin to weaken by mid to late afternoon. The second more
important reason is that rapid drying is forecast to occur near
and above 700 mb around 2 or 3 pm from west to east over North
Texas. This will obviously limit the moisture for significant
precipitation but it will also result in increasing stability
aloft that will end potential for CI/CSI. We should see the impact
of this dry air with radar echoes clearing out rapidly from west
to east across the CWA between 2 pm and 5 pm.

If we don't start seeing an erosion of these echoes by 3 pm in
our western counties, it will be because the models likely have
miss-diagnosed the amount of dry air. This would result in
slightly higher amounts of snow along and north of I-20, but even
in this case we're talking only a half inch more than currently
forecast. 

TR.92
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7 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

You're still sitting better than us in East TX! Wintry precip to our SE and NW... Nada here.

It looks like it will make it at least to areas north of I-20 though hoping it makes it to Tyler. I am considering heading home early to Hideaway so i am on the N side of I-20.

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