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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


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Some nice natural fireworks headed this way. Night into day!attachicon.gifimage.jpeg

 

Cool pic! The 4th of July went out with a bang for sure after working hard all day. We had that storm that came through just after midnight to get the day started, then storms first thing in the morning and then last night. All three were super energetic with lots of lightning. 

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DFW ended up with 3.20" yesterday smashing the daily record and locking in an above avg monthly total.

 

Looking at forecasts this morning, forecasters are really way overdoing the heat and not taking into account the rainfall. So many forecasts are even forecasting hotter temps than what the models are generating (which those usually don't take evapotranspiration effects into account). I don't see any triple digit readings at DFW Airport for the next 7 to 10 days. For one, the ridge really isn't all that strong, the winds are staying up keeping the boundary layer well mixed, and the record rainfall we have received are all working against triple digit heat. Everything is still quite green here due to the above average precipitation. Highs will continue to stay between 95 and 98 degrees. Yesterday's high was only 93°F and the low this morning 75°F well below what used to be the threshold of 78°F to maintain a Heat Advisory, plus heat index values stayed below 105°F yesterday. Coupled with the 71°F reading the prior morning, we are getting enough relief at night from the heat to forego any Heat Advisory. It could be so much hotter this time of year, and I really fell the heat is being blown way out of proportion.

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We could use more rainfall in CLL, although not the massive electrical storm from last week. The heat index has been about 105°F+, but highs have not hit upper 90s yet. Agree the effects of the wet ground and overestimation of some of the ridging by NWS.

Yes. The soil is pretty much saturated. Actual temps don't really matter here because if it's 90, the humidity is insane. However the cloud cover from remnant storms combined with the moisture induced temps and southerly flow, makes this summer almost tolerable.

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Looking at forecasts this morning, forecasters are really way overdoing the heat and not taking into account the rainfall. So many forecasts are even forecasting hotter temps than what the models are generating (which those usually don't take evapotranspiration effects into account). I don't see any triple digit readings at DFW Airport for the next 7 to 10 days. For one, the ridge really isn't all that strong, the winds are staying up keeping the boundary layer well mixed, and the record rainfall we have received are all working against triple digit heat. Everything is still quite green here due to the above average precipitation. Highs will continue to stay between 95 and 98 degrees. Yesterday's high was only 93°F and the low this morning 75°F well below what used to be the threshold of 78°F to maintain a Heat Advisory, plus heat index values stayed below 105°F yesterday. Coupled with the 71°F reading the prior morning, we are getting enough relief at night from the heat to forego any Heat Advisory. It could be so much hotter this time of year, and I really fell the heat is being blown way out of proportion.

 

The models have been too warm and too dry in the medium to longer range but eventually they will be right (it's summer in DFW after all :lol:). The Euro EPS has been pretty constant with showing the first 100's for DFW around mid-month but even that isn't a slam dunk, esp. if we keep getting these sneaky rain events. Like you said, the ridge keeps under performing and hasn't been able to beat back the low level moisture. I wouldn't be surprised to see afternoon storms pop again over the next week or so.  

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SPC not thinking a watch will be necessary

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0337 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 092037Z - 092130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AS IT PROPAGATES INTO THE METROPLEX.

DISCUSSION...SLOWLY ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MIGRATED

SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY INTO

THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE METROPLEX. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS

HAS GENERATED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND

NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PW CONVECTION

PROPAGATES WEST OF SOUTH INTO THE METRO. WHILE SFC TEMP/DEW POINT

SPREADS ARE NOT THAT GREAT...WATER-LOADING DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD

ENCOURAGE STRONG WINDS.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 07/09/2016

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