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ApacheTrout

Severe Weather - June 28

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The SPC has placed most of Vermont in the Slight Risk category for severe weather tomorrow (June 28).  BTV forecasts MUCAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg and high level (0-6k) shear of 40-50 kts, which (if I'm reading the severe weather parameters correctly) could support the formation of bowing thunderstorms or supercells. At the very least, the coverage area should see potential for widespread rain (much needed) and possible flash floods where storms train over the same locations.

 

 

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NCAR ensemble is on board for isolated severe.

 

CAPE looks like it should be there despite meh lapse rates, but a lot of mid level dry air in place, so I expect some evaporative cooling could get some bigger gusts to the surface. PWATs aren't too impressive, but storm motion does seem like it will parallel the front. Someone will likely get a good drink.

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i like the spatial-temporal arrangement there.

 

typically, when we have lee side/heat enhanced troughs, the theta-e tends to pool on the east side of the trough axis, but then gets stolen away seaward with some early maturing CBs ... back lit in the early afternoon sun ... 

 

west wind turns S along and ahead of the 'dry-line' -like boundary and you get a band or two of TCU along it that glaciate and clip the coast on there way out to scare fish in the harbor.  

 

this thing looks lagged enough that ...whatever causes that pre-frontal DP crash has a chance to not be there.

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NCAR ensemble is on board for isolated severe.

CAPE looks like it should be there despite meh lapse rates, but a lot of mid level dry air in place, so I expect some evaporative cooling could get some bigger gusts to the surface. PWATs aren't too impressive, but storm motion does seem like it will parallel the front. Someone will likely get a good drink.

Maybe a few good gusts as cores collapse and all but yeah a few towns should get a nice little soaking. Storm motion is going to be pretty damn slow and given parallel flow I would expect some training tomorrow.

Looks like forcing and convergence will be better than past events though which should yield more widespread activity than we've seen...although I don't think we'll see a whole lot work into New England (except NNE)

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Maybe a few good gusts as cores collapse and all but yeah a few towns should get a nice little soaking. Storm motion is going to be pretty damn slow and given parallel flow I would expect some training tomorrow.

Looks like forcing and convergence will be better than past events though which should yield more widespread activity than we've seen...although I don't think we'll see a whole lot work into New England (except NNE)

 

Certainly as good a convergence of timing, instability, and wind as we've had all year.

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Might be able to get some heavier shwrs/tstms tomorrow night further east as s/w and LLJ move through. 

 

Euro does slowly wind up the H8 LLJ from 00z to 12z across coastal New England. 

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Certainly as good a convergence of timing, instability, and wind as we've had all year.

Still not enough though to stop me from finally melting down very shortly. If there is no severe threat anywhere in he northeast on the 4th it's meltdown city

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Maybe a few good gusts as cores collapse and all but yeah a few towns should get a nice little soaking. Storm motion is going to be pretty damn slow and given parallel flow I would expect some training tomorrow.

Looks like forcing and convergence will be better than past events though which should yield more widespread activity than we've seen...although I don't think we'll see a whole lot work into New England (except NNE)

 

Higher terrain definitely might get some heavy heavy rain...almost like the echoes get stuck over the hills if the storm motion parallels the flow and the orographics add the spark to initiate lift.  Looks like a situation where stuff gets started over the spines/ridges and then very slowly drifts downwind. 

 

I like the VT/NH border, after storm initiation over the Greens.

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Still not enough though to stop me from finally melting down very shortly. If there is no severe threat anywhere in he northeast on the 4th it's meltdown city

 

Take a drive up I-91 tomorrow afternoon towards LEB.

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Looks like some chances for localized 1-3" of rainfall.

 

GFS

 

post-352-0-49396500-1467078922_thumb.png

 

NAM 4km... this has to be way overdone.  LOL at the 3-6" jackpots.  Some spots in Maine there max out at like 7".

 

post-352-0-61736000-1467078981_thumb.png

 

 

 

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Take a drive up I-91 tomorrow afternoon towards LEB.

I have to work until 5. Technically my only off days are Monday and Saturday's but I usually use those days to work elsewhere unless we have some sort of setup

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Still not enough though to stop me from finally melting down very shortly. If there is no severe threat anywhere in he northeast on the 4th it's meltdown city

 

I mean in reality you could say that you've probably missed your peak for hail reports, but tornadoes and wind reports don't typically see their peak until mid July around these parts. 

 

It may seem like New England gets their big events early in the warm season, because the rest of the country is getting those same headlines, but in truth we're more weighted towards mid Summer.

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Looks like some chances for localized 1-3" of rainfall.

 

GFS

 

attachicon.gifgfs_apcpn_neus_7.png

 

NAM 4km... this has to be way overdone.  LOL at the 3-6" jackpots.  Some spots in Maine there max out at like 7".

 

attachicon.gifnam4km_apcpn_neus_14.png

 

I mean clearly that's widespread, but given the flow you could see how a town or two could end up seeing something like 3-6"

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I mean in reality you could say that you've probably missed your peak for hail reports, but tornadoes and wind reports don't typically see their peak until mid July around these parts.

It may seem like New England gets their big events early in the warm season, because the rest of the country is getting those same headlines, but in truth we're more weighted towards mid Summer.

Hopefully we get a monster tornado setup...or damaging winds. We need a derecho

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Awaiting storms at 4kft...breaks of sun here with more sunshine down in the village. Thick clouds though right at summit level...every so often parts of the ridge become obscured by what I believe are cumulus mediocris (?) clouds.

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