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July 2016 General Discussion

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next MCS is probably in its beginning stages east of the twin cities. should ride the old outflow se/sse this evening. the effective front may not make it back north of chicago until the weekend. 

given how high dews already are, how they will tend to pool along the warm side of the outflow boundary, and the wetness of the past few weeks over the corn belt, think it's possible we see some legit mid-80s dews show up this evening.




Seems like your thoughts are on track per latest latest radar trends up in western Wisconsin.

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The outflow/lake enhanced boundary seems to be slowing down/washing out a little.  Should continue to progress inland for a while though.


d7c17ebcaf9126a6930af0d4940cae7c.jpg

Almost literally on top of me. Should make it through here but then would imagine it'll mix out/lift north later.

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19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

can't believe it has been that long

 

Been even longer at ORD.  Have to go back to July 30, 1999 (they've had several 79 since then too).  More difficult to pull off the 80 degree dews in highly urbanized settings for obvious reasons.

I thought this setup might have a shot to do it at ORD but it's very problematic with convection/outflow concerns. 

 

 

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Winds flipped from northeast to southeast at ORD with a temperature increase so some evidence that the low levels are trying to recover behind the boundary. 

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Impressed with how the dewpoints have held up in areas not affected by the outflow.  Many of the areas with 80+ dews have decent s/sw winds.

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94/80/114 here. Literally unbearable unless you're in a body of water. Even sitting in the shade & breeze causes you to drip swear after a few minutes. 

 

If that MCS organizes in Wisconsin it could ride the outflow set out by the last MCS. Could be interesting 

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man, WI complex could turn into a monster MCS if it gets it's shiz together

Decent shot with the instability gradient in place, and shear is not the worst either.

Might as well take our chances since 95+ isn't happening today or tomorrow.

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Just curious for Alek and Chi Storm, why are you guys saying tomorrow has no chance of tomorrow being very hot? I don't see anything that would suggest tomorrow not being hotter than today, especially if the convection goes through this evening vs late night.

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Drought monitor update: The entire Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shorelines (of the U.S.) are in drought, D1 classification near most of Lake Erie. Buffalo is in D2 drought, which has been mentioned already. This is actually in the Drought Monitor discussion: " Drought conditions improved in Iowa, but expanded in Ohio. It was reported by a farmer near Toledo that the lack of rain has slowed crop growth and he has relied on his pond for irrigation, but the pond’s water level was dropping rapidly. "

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Just curious for Alek and Chi Storm, why are you guys saying tomorrow has no chance of tomorrow being very hot? I don't see anything that would suggest tomorrow not being hotter than today, especially if the convection goes through this evening vs late night.


Continued storm chances and debris will be an issue. 95+ won't happen.

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I have almost no confidence in the details for tomorrow around here.  It does look like whatever happens later this evening/tonight will move out pretty quickly, leaving the early part of the day dry.  Redevelopment tomorrow looks likely but whether it's at noon or 3 pm will make a difference in terms of heat potential.

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6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Continued storm chances and debris will be an issue. 95+ won't happen.

Debris from what? The storms are going to come through this evening... I mean I can buy the storm chances late in the day as Chicago approaches convective temp but there really isn't much of a trigger tomorrow and there will be strong capping involved as well.

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I'm back, after a few days in the hospital (bowels issue) :( .  I'm still a bit weak, so being outside in this extreme heat drains me very quickly.  This afternoon the heat index here in the city has been in the upper 110s.  I think that's the highest since 1995.  In 2012 the temp was 10 degrees higher, but the dewpoint was 25 degrees lower.  This kind of sauna heat is way worse.

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Actually got some fairly good gusts here with that dying MCS that moved through. Knocked over all the patio furniture, which was great to come home from work to. :lol:

And there were some much needed very torrential downpours.

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that system already has an mcv with it, so it should be self-maintaining through late evening. with the outflow boundary now quickly retreating, it looks to be back in chicagoland if not north and east as the system rides almost due south. have to wonder if we'll see a warm advective wing light up this evening with a modest uptick in the low level jet oriented nearly perpendicular to the old boundary. if it does light up, then there will be some slower moving cells capable of flooding rain and perhaps brief tornadoes.

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MCS is going to pound the metro

 

gonna be a real bummer if i get missed just SW, holding out hope

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3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

MCS is going to pound the metro

 

gonna be a real bummer if i get missed just SW, holding out hope

This looks like it could be a good event for the whole Chicago area. Will ride the outflow SSE. 

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