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July 2016 General Discussion


Hoosier

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Just now, Torchageddon said:

Why would a model based on physics show that? Is the mean flow ever E to W like that at our latitude?
 

Honestly I don't know, it certainly isn't in the model itself. I mean it is diving toward the best instability but that is about it.

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

GFS must be from the land of make believe tonight, has a MCS moving from Toronto to Chicago. I will just file that under "never going to happen".

4km NAM, GGEM / RGEM and the NAM are similar. And I don't so much see an E to W moving MCS, but more like stronger storms now backbuilding further west along the cold front, which seems plausible if the heights do end up flattening as models are now beginning to show.

And actually, if you think those solutions are wild, don't look at the NMM and ARW. :yikes: 

But specifics aside, the key consensus amongst most of the Hi-Res models seems to be that we yet again get ****ed in the ass one way or another in terms of severe weather potential (no surprises there).

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Welp, clear skies and 81 overnight turned into strong storms and 68 instead. It's going to take a lot of recovery to get to the mid and upper 90s today now. A shot at 100 is definitely out of the question. Cams even showing more storms later today as well. Total mucked up forecast with bust potential. 

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MCS over central Wisconsin looking relatively healthy considering the diurnally unfavorable time of day.

Mesoanalysis showing best instability and deep moisture to its southwest and south so it's going to be interesting to see just how much (if any) it's able to turn into the better airmass.

 

 

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Digging the clouds and breeze this AM.   Lets see how we can find every way to miss the rain again for the 3rd week in a row of decent setups.

 

Yesterday was as fine of a  secret beach day as ever to cool off and play and chill.

 

Sorry to Facebook pictures you to death lol.. but i figured why not show off my best friend and most beautiful summer day around water.

VpNJnu.jpg

WqZrya.jpg

4HUNBP.jpg

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Look to get narrowly missed by this line of rain in Madison.  Only 1.01" so far this month.  Glad that areas northeast of here are getting it though, they really needed the rain. 

 

Beautiful shelf cloud in Sheboygan.  Found this on twitter posted by @Sheboyganweathr

Cn5WtWiWgAAKl6m.jpg-large.jpg

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