Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

July 2016 General Discussion


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 737
  • Created
  • Last Reply
4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

We won't even hit 90 on Friday 

Models doing a poor job with summer convection as expected

the  hits keep coming for downstate rainfall with several active flash flood warnings out

 

I suspect the state could have a top 5 july rainfall if this keeps up

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Chitown Storm said:

Absolutely no rain in the previous flash flood watch area. I saw that one coming. Temps tonight might not drop below 80 in the metro with dew points 70-75. Double urban heat island in full effect. Heat index of 110-115 looks like a lock for tomorrow. All-time record is 119. 

Sort of a random thought but your post made me think how the type of extremes from summer to winter that can happen up there are pretty impressive. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess we'll get some reasoning in the upcoming afd.  Tomorrow looks like it should be pretty much free of convection...question is whether somewhat lower dews in the urban areas may make it difficult to hit criteria there.  Then for Friday, obvious concerns about convection.  If any morning stuff comes through early enough (looks like it would) and the outflow is shallow enough, then could get a quick recovery prior to new convective initiation.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess we'll get some reasoning in the upcoming afd.  Tomorrow looks like it should be pretty much free of convection...question is whether somewhat lower dews in the urban areas may make it difficult to hit criteria there.  Then for Friday, obvious concerns about convection.  If any morning stuff comes through early enough (looks like it would) and the outflow is shallow enough, then could get a quick recovery prior to new convective initiation.  




Easiest explanation is we were kinda boxed in with the early watch issuance on Monday (MKX and for some reason DVN have lower HI criteria than us, 105+ vs 110+), so instead of making the WWA map look funky, I went and issued the watch. Now I'm guessing our forecast is still lower than technical criteria for parts of the CWA, especially northeast 1/2, but since DVN and MKX were gonna issue, we opted for the warning instead of making the map look ridiculous. Cook County/Chicago also has a different criteria than the rest of the CWA (HI 105-110 for 2 days, 100-105 for 3 days), so it could very well meet the criteria there Thursday-Friday). All in all, came down to simplicity vs true EHW criteria.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Never a good time for an ASOS to act up but ORD going wild during a potentially significant heat wave would suck.

Looks like the 00z NAM is relatively convection free in northern IL most of Friday and continues to suggest near 100F potential for Chicago with 925 mb temps approaching 30C.



I was working at WFO NYC back during the July 2010 heat wave right before I moved out here and had the issue with a malfunctioning climate site ASOS. EWR (Newark, NJ) had something like 106 degrees, which would have tied the all time record there, and we had to explain why it was more likely 103 or therabouts. It's not fun.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Sort of a random thought but your post made me think how the type of extremes from summer to winter that can happen up there are pretty impressive. 

The range of extremes is impressive for sure. I've only been here 2 years but I've seen both sides of it already. True Midwest weather here. 

Heat indicies already reaching 110 in parts of the metro. Over performing today. Tomorrow might be a real problem for some people with no relief tonight. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

A trend that has emerged on the last several runs is to delay the weekend cooldown.  Now looking like both Saturday and Sunday could be pretty warm, outside of convection. 

 

Monday as well, at least for the SE half of the sub-forum.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty stormy day.  Had several downpours at work, and had several rounds of thunder as well.  Clouds kept temps down most of the day, but now that the sun is out it's very steamy out there.  At 85/76 here now, which is the highest of the day so far.  Picked up only 0.16" here, but had more in the QC.  Up to almost 4" for the month now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, daddylonglegs said:

Heat index only 95F here and it feels it... dews in the lower 70Fs..  waiting for the furnace tomorrow.

Still no July 13th, 1995...  Heat Index that day was 121F or something insane like that.

 

LSE peaked near 120.  High temp reached a very impressive 108, with dews mixing out a bit during the afternoon.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLSE/1995/7/13/DailyHistory.html?req_city=La+Crosse+Municipal&req_state=WI&req_statename=Wisconsin&reqdb.zip=54650&reqdb.magic=4&reqdb.wmo=99999

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...