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July 2016 General Discussion


Hoosier

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One of the more impressive 500 mb maps I can recall.

Only 9 days away :lol:

attachicon.gifgfs_namer_216_500_vort_ht.gif

 

I wish I could send that to myself in July 2014 with the message "There is HOPE..."

 

:weenie:

 

Those maps are from my weenie drawer.

 

Very cloudy today but nice out. Looking forward to more heat in the coming days. Lawn is still extremely yellow as the rain from Friday was barely evident. Last week was amazing temperature wise, close to a perfect summer week with no annoyances. Even the coldest day Saturday was perfectly comfortable and refreshing.

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It's a very warm and breezy night. Sitting at 79°/70°. Reach 90° today. Corn is probably 4 feet tall now, maybe slightly higher in pockets. The last rain helped perk things up a little, but it only went so far.

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The massive expanse of the ridging in the longer term is reminiscent of some of those episodes in summer 2012.  The big difference this time is that there isn't nearly the drought so what is realized at the surface may not be as impressive.  Plus this is still pretty far out there and subject to change.

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The massive expanse of the ridging in the longer term is reminiscent of some of those episodes in summer 2012.  The big difference this time is that there isn't nearly the drought so what is realized at the surface may not be as impressive.  Plus this is still pretty far out there and subject to change.

 

It'll probably be more like the 1995 or 1998 heat ridges (both of which succeeded El Nino winters and preceeded La Nina winters), which I'm ok with. In Detroit, both July 1995 and 1998 were very active in terms of severe weather under these ridges.

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Pretty impressive signal on the 00z EPS and 12z GEFS mean at such distance, so it's not like the op runs are spitting out some crackpot unsupported solution.  Besides the heat, could be a good ring of fire pattern for areas on the periphery of the ridge. 

 

 

post-14-0-54449600-1468348639_thumb.png

 

 

post-14-0-01966300-1468348649_thumb.png

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Storms crapped the bed as expected on the back doorstep.  Picked up a trace.  Definitely don't need the rain anyway.

Ended up with 0.01" as a few patches of decaying anvil rain drifted over.  2.65" for the month now.

 

 

Another 0.95" of rain here overnight... 2.70" for the month.  It seems every line of storms that moves through this summer is soaking me good.

Too bad we don't have this kind of luck in the winter most of the time lol.

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Euro forecast max surface temps really aren't all that impressive even next week.  A day or two in the low-mid 90s for some of us, but it looks like the core of the heat stays southwest like it has much of the summer so far.  The Plains and southern MS valley bake though.  Could end up being a very stormy pattern for those of us riding the edge, much like we've seen already this summer.

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Euro forecast max surface temps really aren't all that impressive even next week.  A day or two in the low-mid 90s for some of us, but it looks like the core of the heat stays southwest like it has much of the summer so far.  The Plains and southern MS valley bake though.  Could end up being a very stormy pattern for those of us riding the edge, much like we've seen already this summer.

Not as deep of a ridge on the Euro comparatively.

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I'm glad we got our inch of rain a couple days ago, because that was it for this active period.  The mcs action to the south once again nixed our chance.  Missouri really needs to be strongly capped in order for us to get good storms.  That was the case for our bigger events so far this summer.  This weekend has some decent potential.

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In the mean time, it's going to be another nail biter as far as achieving that 3rd consecutive 90*F+ day tomorrow. While I never want to underestimate the power of that downsloping wind, I'm also concerned about potential convection and its debris (based on progged mid-level RH values).

 

 

 

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