Typhoon Tip Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 What you see is what you get until Mid October - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 We'll probably see more heat in September and October compared to June and July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 Yankee Doodle Dewless Dandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 We'll probably see more heat in September and October compared to June and July. Seasons in seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 Hottest summer ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 I actually see a solidly above normal month thanks to 7/10-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 26, 2016 Author Share Posted June 26, 2016 I actually see a solidly above normal month thanks to 7/10-31. Normal is +.1 to +.3 F in a pre-GW holocaust. Completely OT: ...You know... humanity is a tragic comedy ... I only hope that interloping super -advanced interstellar species can one day happen by our human-defunct corpse of a world in so many hundred years, and see and make understanding of our plight, just for the shear hilarity of it all... Human kind is currently standing on the proverbial train tracks with an errant ecological/climate freight train barreling at them, and they are busily arguing over the "paramount" issue of Wall Street regulations and the price of oil. nice - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 Normal is +.1 to +.3 F in a pre-GW holocaust. Completely OT: ...You know... humanity is a tragic comedy ... I only hope that interloping super -advanced interstellar species can one day happen by our human-defunct corpse of a world in so many hundred years, and see and make understanding of our plight, just for the shear hilarity of it all... Human kind is currently standing on the proverbial train tracks with an errant ecological/climate freight train barreling at them, and they are busily arguing over the "paramount" issue of Wall Street regulations and the price of oil. nice - Well if Trump gets elected then get ready to hear Mother Nature screech in pain as our very climate safeguards could be dismantled in favor of big oil companies throwing more darts at our planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 Ridge in the west, trough in the east. I don't see a big hemispheric change in that signal through the first 10 days of July it seems. Now there will be times of warmer and more humid weather like today and tomorrow...but we aren't getting prolonged 90s with that hemispheric look IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2016 Author Share Posted June 27, 2016 Ridge in the west, trough in the east. I don't see a big hemispheric change in that signal through the first 10 days of July it seems. Now there will be times of warmer and more humid weather like today and tomorrow...but we aren't getting prolonged 90s with that hemispheric look IMO. Sort of 2/3rds agree seriously the GEFs derivatives would have us believe this remarkable stretch of temperate conditions changes about July 6-10th. so that's 'most' of your times span. the obvious caveats to that prognosis are: one ...that's just the GEFs; there are other ensemble means (GGEM, Euro ..etc). I don't ever get to see hard graphical depictions of those other's - though I'm sure they exist for a handsome wage (dycks). Never the mind, typically the GEFs do alright just using them and considering climate together with some 20 or 30% margin for errors - that still get's you above median skill for the extended when using the nightly's from CPC and CDC. two ...not always though. we passed through one of those prior to memorial day weekend and got a single afternoon of heat out of the deal. perhaps this would be the same... but the PNA is squarely in its correlation breakdown time of year, and the typically most summer-time telling NAO is flipped demonstratively positive for the first 10 days of the month. if heights don't rise in the east, that's actually the less likely result. in 1993-1994's winter, a +100,001 NAO became so dominant it actually lowered heights as a backed hemispheric event -weird, kind of like a statistical inversion scheme. not sure if that's even possible in summer, as it would require very long R-wave length... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 Sort of 2/3rds agree seriously the GEFs derivatives would have us believe this remarkable stretch of temperate conditions changes about July 6-10th. so that's 'most' of your times span. the obvious caveats to that prognosis are: one ...that's just the GEFs; there are other ensemble means (GGEM, Euro ..etc). I don't ever get to see hard graphical depictions of those other's - though I'm sure they exist for a handsome wage (dycks). Never the mind, typically the GEFs do alright just using them and considering climate together with some 20 or 30% margin for errors - that still get's you above median skill for the extended when using the nightly's from CPC and CDC. two ...not always though. we passed through one of those prior to memorial day weekend and got a single afternoon of heat out of the deal. perhaps this would be the same... but the PNA is squarely in its correlation breakdown time of year, and the typically most summer-time telling NAO is flipped demonstratively positive for the first 10 days of the month. if heights don't rise in the east, that's actually the less likely result. in 1993-1994's winter, a +100,001 NAO became so dominant it actually lowered heights as a backed hemispheric event -weird, kind of like a statistical inversion scheme. not sure if that's even possible in summer, as it would require very long R-wave length... Yeah I tried to stress that caveat by talking about warm or even hot weather for a day or two. That can happen if you get one of these 576 plumes to break off and come over the top. I just mean that with the overall ridge in the Rockies, trough in the east...I find it hard to sustain big heat and dews for a prolonged period of time. Now eventually as Nina tries to assert itself..one would think the reflection at H5 may change and send the heat east at some point. Also, we are coming to the climo peak temps. One would expect temps to naturally be pretty warm anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 I am Yankee doodle dewless dandy. A Yankee doodle dewless dandy up until the end of July. Yankee Doodle went to town riding on a pony , no TP stuck to his ass cuz DIT is a phony. I'm a Yankee Doodle Dew or die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 Weather Channel outlook for summer 2016, the map has Connecticut split in half with Western Connecticut forecast to have above average temps, while Eastern Connecticut has average temperatures, LOL. https://weather.com/news/weather/video/hotter-than-normal-summer-expected?cm_ven=Yahoo_SummerOutlook_6222016_1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28, 2016 Author Share Posted June 28, 2016 Three cycles in a row now the oper. Euro is roaster oven D7-10... nice 101er at the end - goes against seasonal tenor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Is that our first Euro fantasy heat dome of the season? It usually has several +22 to +24C 850 outbreaks in the D8-10 range every summer...but I don't recall one before today's day 10 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Is that our first Euro fantasy heat dome of the season? It usually has several +22 to +24C 850 outbreaks in the D8-10 range every summer...but I don't recall one before today's day 10 run.Didn't it pop a 100F a few weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 I see where this is going. Everyone is dismissing it. I am sure the Euro Ops is completely out to lunch. The seasonal tenor per Tip seems to be a permanent fixture. I would dismiss the Euro on this phantom heat!!! Not being fooled!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Didn't it pop a 100F a few weeks ago? Oh yeah, I think it did...wasn't sure if it was a +22 to +24c though, was it? It can have one of those +20 to +21s and pop 100F for BDL and ASH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 I see where this is going. Everyone is dismissing it. I am sure the Euro Ops is completely out to lunch. The seasonal tenor per Tip seems to be a permanent fixture. I would dismiss the Euro on this phantom heat!!! Not being fooled!!!! No prolonged heat until Summer 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Oh yeah, I think it did...wasn't sure if it was a +22 to +24c though, was it? It can have one of those +20 to +21s and pop 100F for BDL and ASH.Found the day. I can't recall what the 850s were...maybe someone else can. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/48355-june-pattern-discussion/?p=4140767 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 EPS has 15-16 H850 before yet another dew drop inn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Could be some bigger heat near day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Could be some bigger heat near day 10.meh yesterday and today was supposed to be big heat days. Probably a 85_90 day before yet another Fropa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 meh yesterday and today was supposed to be big heat days. Probably a 85_90 day before yet another Fropa Well the difference being a trough will move SE into BC and help break off a piece of heat. Potentially. I have my flags out too...but potential is there for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Didn't it pop a 100F a few weeks ago? Yup. I believe a certain poster from NE CT had locked that solution in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 Yup. I believe a certain poster from NE CT had locked that solution in. So much COC that he seems to have left his computer behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2016 Share Posted June 28, 2016 So much COC that he seems to have left his computer behind. No one is upset about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 Give us that 582 1000-500 dm thickness. Where those tall tees are drenched in sweat within 5 minutes. Along with a nightmarish nocturnal derecho after 2AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 29, 2016 Author Share Posted June 29, 2016 Is that our first Euro fantasy heat dome of the season? It usually has several +22 to +24C 850 outbreaks in the D8-10 range every summer...but I don't recall one before today's day 10 run. Nah... three of them... There was one way back there in May of all months. It was the most suspect of them all ... it was like 50 and BD air mass to mid 90's back to 60 in NWS gales with a snow in maritimes with unrealistic wave lengths and gradients. ..not really a "dome" in the spirit of what that means, but it was a D9 sonoran ejection... This one on the Euro "might" have legs - there's ensemble support. But obviously... only an addict would gamble on 22 to 24 C at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 Nah... three of them... There was one way back there in May of all months. It was the most suspect of them all ... it was like 50 and BD air mass to mid 90's back to 60 in NWS gales with a snow in maritimes with unrealistic wave lengths and gradients. ..not really a "dome" in the spirit of what that means, but it was a D9 sonoran ejection... This one on the Euro "might" have legs - there's ensemble support. But obviously... only an addict would gamble on 22 to 24 C at this range. eps support? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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