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6/19-6/23 Severe Weather Risk


Jim Martin

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
524 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
524 PM CDT

The true warm front per observations and satellite looks to be
draped from just south of Muscatine, IA to near Champaign, IL. To
the north of this...for about 80 miles or so...lessening
inhibition and a more favorable air mass is developing through
surface warming/moistening as evidenced by mid 80s air
temperatures over mid 70s dew points. The warm front is likely to
evolve northward within this zone and already a wind shift is
noted from the Quad Cities to near Kankakee. Basically between
this wind shift and the aforementioned true warm front is a zone
of destabilizing helicity-rich air that will be conditionally
favored for significant severe weather.

Regarding inhibition and storm development, a modified 19Z DVN
sounding still indicates over 100 J/kg of convective inhibition
/CIN/ in the mixed layer. Initial congestus and radar echoes in
eastern Iowa appear to be struggling as a result of this CIN.
While there is not a pronounced short wave moving in, there is a
subtle speed max noted on water vapor imagery across north central
Iowa. Ascent induced cooling from this is presently favored to
initiate more rapid storm growth over far eastern Iowa into the
northwest quarter of Illinois. If this occurs, which is favored,
this looks to be mainly isolated/scattered at first because of the
amount of CIN and it may remain such for a couple hours before
more growth in coverage as they progress east-southeast. These
storms may initially be elevated and work their way into a
surface-based threat.

As referenced by the earlier SPC MD and AFDs, the threats with
initial supercells will include all-hazards and enhanced near and
immediately north of the warm frontal boundary. It is possible
with the southeast winds off of Lake Michigan in far northeast
Illinois, that a significant surface-based threat does not
materialize there.

MTF/BMD

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