Indystorm Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Over 200 people are on this page anxiously awaiting the SPC 2000 update and further information on convective initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Sitting in North Liberty Iowa just north of Iowa City at home just awaiting the SPC 2000 update and it's 85 out with a 74 dewpoint, winds trying to switch to SW. Seems like most of the action will be farther east, but not completely sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Don't think they go high, there would be a meso discussion for it if that was the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The storms still hanging on/developing over Northeast IL may be enough to keep the WF out of Chicago Metro? There's really nothing else developing farther upstream (yet) so it's going to take a bit of a miracle to keep it that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 There's really nothing else developing farther upstream (yet) so it's going to take a bit of a miracle to keep it that far south. And it's brightening up rather quickly right behind that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Don't think they go high, there would be a meso discussion for it if that was the case. Not sure that they always do a meso discussion though. Whether it goes high or not, the potential it to verify as a high risk is not out of the question, even with the tornado aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Stays MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Outlook released, still a moderate in relatively the same locations as before. edit: exact same location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Outlook released, still a moderate in relatively the same locations as before.Pretty much the same outlook as before, even says it in the wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 THIS SCENARIO MATCHES PREVIOUS OUTLOOK THINKING WELL AND NO CHANGESWERE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK ACROSS THIS REGION. No changes were made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Progression of the outlooks today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Storm line hasn't even made it across the county, and blue skies are already peeking through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 It looks like the 70 degree dewpoint line extends SW from Freeport to Joliet, then E to Gary. Dewpoint in DeKalb is 67, ORD 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 First time out this year for me. Been on a hiatus for a year with some serious medical issues, but it sure feels great to be back out. Just south of Rochelle, IL right now. That WF is taking its sweet time moving NEward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Excerpt from DVN AFD: THE SPECIAL SOUNDING DONE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE STABLE AIR IS QUITE DEEP. THUS THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS BINARY. EITHER NO CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE 5 TO 7 PM TIME FRAME PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Not bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Excerpt from DVN AFD: THE SPECIAL SOUNDING DONE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE STABLE AIR IS QUITE DEEP. THUS THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS BINARY. EITHER NO CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE 5 TO 7 PM TIME FRAME PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR. Well that's helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zestylabs Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I think I'm going to reposition to Rochelle... odd that Rochelle 4/9/15 was the last large tornado I saw. I think I'm too far north in Freeport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Excerpt from DVN AFD: THE SPECIAL SOUNDING DONE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE STABLE AIR IS QUITE DEEP. THUS THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS BINARY. EITHER NO CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE 5 TO 7 PM TIME FRAME PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR. If you modify their sounding for the incoming airmass, the cap would break especially as they get closer to 75 dew points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Excerpt from DVN AFD: THE SPECIAL SOUNDING DONE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE STABLE AIR IS QUITE DEEP. THUS THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS BINARY. EITHER NO CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE 5 TO 7 PM TIME FRAME PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR. Way to really go out on a limb there... Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 12z NSSL WRF has a rather insane look to it. Unfortunately the UKMET initialized version isn't public yet, but this is still very impressive for what its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 73/71 here in DKB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 Where did you get those two graphics from? Those are very interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Dense overcast, feels p stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 That stable layer on the DVN sounding is interesting, wondering if the main failure mode is transitioning more towards capping vs. rapid upscale growth. Regardless, the level of shear present in the sounding is conducive to significantly tornadic supercells should storms form in that vicinity with nearly 400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Slightly modded DVN 19z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Where did you get those two graphics from? Those are very interesting... Anything labeled UK will not work since there will be a transition from GFS ini to UKMET ini http://wrf.nssl.noaa.gov/newsite/index.php?date=16062212&field=rflslp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Just put out by KDVN not long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1020.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1020 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...FAR SRN WI...NRN INTO CNTRL IL...NW IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 222038Z - 222215Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 23Z. THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR FOR PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION DURING MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND RELATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS IA/WI/IL/IND HAS RESULTED IN MAINTENANCE OF STRONG CAPPING /AS EVIDENT IN 19Z REGIONAL RAOBS/. HOWEVER...RECENT CLEARING IN THE LAST 1-2 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THE UPPER 60S F INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S F AS FAR NORTH AS THE IL/WI BORDER. ADDITIONAL HEATING AND MOISTENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CAP. AS DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN IA/SW WI/FAR NW IL BY 23Z. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK E-SE ALONG A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN IL INTO CENTRAL IND. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM PER DVN AND ILX 19Z RAOBS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KT WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. FURTHERMORE...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH MIXING RATIOS NEAR 14 G/KG AND BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS EVIDENT IN 19Z RAOBS AND...MORE RECENTLY...INDICATED BY REGIONAL VWP/S...WILL SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY ONE OR TWO SIG TORS/. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH A COINCIDENT INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO INDIANA...AND LATER TONIGHT THE OHIO VALLEY. ..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 06/22/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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