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6/19-6/23 Severe Weather Risk


Jim Martin

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And here we go, battle of the HRRR and the HRRRx. I feel that the HRRRx will do better, but I don't think a TV met would show an experimental model on air.

well, this would be Tom Skilling's market, Chicago, that's affected. If anyone would show any type of experimental models in a situation like this in a manner that's presentable, it would be him.

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well, this would be Tom Skilling's market, Chicago, that's affected. If anyone would show any type of experimental models in a situation like this in a manner that's presentable, it would be him.

 

I believe Tom started yesterday at 12pm and I caught him again at 10pm.  He has been very reluctant to show any models regarding this evening it seems.  He was all over the earlier stuff missing to the south and had it crossing through central Illinois but as a viewer he has seemed to be very gun shy on making any call regarding this evening's activity...Mostly he has made mention as to this evening's potential and nothing more detailed as of yet.

 

The HRRR posted above showing the 7:30pm time is the first out of his office that I've seen show anything detailed.

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I believe Tom started yesterday at 12pm and I caught him again at 10pm.  He has been very reluctant to show any models regarding this evening it seems.  He was all over the earlier stuff missing to the south and had it crossing through central Illinois but as a viewer he has seemed to be very gun shy on making any call regarding this evening's activity...Mostly he has made mention as to this evening's potential and nothing more detailed as of yet.

 

The HRRR posted above showing the 7:30pm time is the first out of his office that I've seen show anything detailed.

that's rare for him. either he really doesn't like something and is worried it may not be as bad as advertised, or he's more worried than he usually is about the vulnerability and is choosing to play this one as it comes. one other possibility, he's seeing all types of meso-solutions and doesn't want to confuse viewers with the run by run thing.

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Yeah what janetjanet posted is not that far north of the warm front/SB instability axis.  That's in the too close for comfort category and I've heard a general rule that within about 30 miles north of a warm front is an area to watch for possible surface based storms.

 

One of the issues for Chicago at this point seems to be the surface low track.  It looks like it has nudged south to the point where the front really can't clear the area, especially near the lake.

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SPC

 

"CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR

/50-70 KT EFFECTIVE/ NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING-INFLUENCED WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT /EF2+/. THIS INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY
APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA AND POSSIBLY
ADJACENT EXTREME SOUTHERN WI BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON NEAR/JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND NEARBY WARM FRONT.

THESE STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A FAST-MOVING
QUASI-LINEAR MCS...POTENTIALLY WITH A DERECHO-RELATED SIGNIFICANT
SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE EVOLVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
/AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT/. THE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL MAY REACH THE OH RIVER/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT."

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Are you sure about that? It seems that the moderate expanded further south and the 10% hatched tornado makes it into NWI now.

 

ifU9mPU.png

Added a quick edit right before you posted that, sorry! For the Chicago metro, unchanged. For Indiana/Ohio/Central Illinois interests, the moderate was definitely expanded.

 

Edit: also see they introduced a 30% hatched hail risk.

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Yeah what janetjanet posted is not that far north of the warm front/SB instability axis.  That's in the too close for comfort category and I've heard a general rule that within about 30 miles north of a warm front is an area to watch for possible surface based storms.

 

One of the issues for Chicago at this point seems to be the surface low track.  It looks like it has nudged south to the point where the front really can't clear the area, especially near the lake.

For clarification... You can (and often do) have surface based supercells/storms on the cool side of any boundary, the air mass characteristics will determine the extent of the buoyant air on the cool side.. That modeled cell in question looks to be on the very edge of the sfc based instability gradient for sure at a glance, but certainly possible it is still sfc based. 

Any cell near the warm front will be impressive if it is somewhat discrete.

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one other thing of note here on the 1630 update. the Twin Cities/Rochester/Lacrosse area is back into the mix with a slight risk after being downgraded at the 1300 for the trailer disturbance to the main event from Rockford and Chicago to Cincy/Indy/CMH. we may see some interesting things this evening as well, just not quite as noteworthy.

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I know there's the lake breeze/front to consider, but I would absolutely not rule out some significant severe (hail/tornado) very close to Chicago. 

Agreed and if something forms and rides that boundary SE, it could be producing for a while. The HRRR's run is barely elevated, shift that track south 15 miles and it rides the warm front the whole way.

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Any bets on the kinds of watches today?

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

 

 

Kind of a no brainer... tornado watches.  Could eventually see a transition to severe thunderstorm watches late/farther east but I wouldn't be shocked if that didn't happen.

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