salseneca Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I wouldn't put too much into the NAM this close to the event HRRR better to you for intra day composite radar? Just trying to learn, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 HRRR better to you for intra day composite radar? Just trying to learn, thanks.Probably- but don't take my word for it, maybe some of these other more experienced guys can confirm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 lol 991? That's the only model that bombs out the low pressure that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 lol lol @ 991 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 lol Nice... But... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Nice... But... at this point i'm ok with the miss to the southwest, DKB can keep the tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 at this point i'm ok with the miss to the southwest, DKB can keep the tornadoMight be a good thing for us to have a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The 991 should be a mistake. Pivotal doesn't have the low on the 4k NAM going that low, and tidbits has the low jumping to 997 right after. Some output issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Might be a good thing for us to have a miss I'm working by the lake today (Lincolnshire) and live in far West Elgin, keeping an eye to see how things develop this afternoon. 30 miles (as the crow flies) will make a difference today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Models really keying in on a lone super cell running from near RFD southeast through the far western burbs down towards JOT. Not quite the worst case scenario but lots of relatively densely populated areas in that path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Models really keying in on a lone super cell running from near RFD southeast through the far western burbs down towards JOT. Not quite the worst case scenario but lots of relatively densely populated areas in that path Reminiscent of last year on this date...a lone supercell tracking SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 it's becoming a bit of a thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The HRRRx also hints at a supercell running SE through the far western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 the complex near the quad cities is the remnants of the dakotas vort. looks like good clearing can take place once subsidence behind it shifts in during the first part of the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 HRRR has been showing that nasty sup tracking through the southern burbs, over far southern Lake Michigan and then turns the turn signal on turning hard right headed for FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 the complex near the quad cities is the remnants of the dakotas vort. looks like good clearing can take place once subsidence behind it shifts in during the first part of the afternoon. Agreed. Decent clearing behind these showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Any thoughts on whether we get a PDS Severe or regular Tor Watch for later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 at this point i'm ok with the miss to the southwest, DKB can keep the tornado We will pass. Had our close call last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Agreed. Decent clearing behind these showers Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Any thoughts on whether we get a PDS Severe or regular Tor Watch for later today? I would probably lean more towards PDS severe as that should be the feature mode. But maybe the first box in eastern IA/ southwest WI/ Northwest IL will be Tornado just because the initial cells would have the highest tornado risk, then with subsequent watches in eastern IL/Southeast WI/ IN / western OH being PDS severe just because the main storm mode by then will be high straight-line winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I would probably lean more towards PDS severe as that should be the feature mode. But maybe the first box in eastern IA/ southwest WI/ Northwest IL will be Tornado just because the initial cells would have the highest tornado risk, then with subsequent watches in eastern IL/Southeast WI/ IN / western OH being PDS severe just because the main storm mode by then will be high straight-line winds. Do you think that since there are less convection and debris in N IL as previously thought, the WF boundary may reach the Chicago area? Or will it stay in the south/far south suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 fwiw, dews are already pushing 60° in spots including my backyard also under full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 fwiw, dews are already pushing 60° in spots including my backyard also under full sun. You'll get some clouds soon but yeah we had some sun up here for an hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 A pleasant 67 with light rain here in Rockford. Hard pressed to visualize the later day threat if you were just observing current conditions. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Ikr! Crazy how mother nature works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Do you think that since there are less convection and debris in N IL as previously thought, the WF boundary may reach the Chicago area? Or will it stay in the south/far south suburbs probably southern/western Suburbs (Dupage/Romeoville/Valpo), but not much further north and east given the easterly/northeasterly lake breeze that will probably synoptically develop. but we will see as time gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 13z HRRRx pushes the warm front to the Wisconsin border. It's ensambles support a threat to the west and south metro, with what appear to be semi discrete supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 13z HRRRx pushes the warm front to the Wisconsin border. It's ensambles support a threat to the west and south metro, with what appear to be semi discrete supercells. Sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Sheesh Some images to go along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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