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June 16th-17th Floodmageddon


eurojosh

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Almost none of that line is severe. #lwxing

 

IAD has gusted to 28mph.  To be fair, that is probably enough to take down a tree around here.

 

Before the line gets here, a post-mortem on the models:

 

NAM:  terrible

NAM 4k:  catastrophic

Euro:  pretty bad

HRRR:  missed some of the discrete stuff, but had the timing and general idea of the line from well out

GFS:  probably will end up closest on qpf, though it was too coarse for convective details

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IAD has gusted to 28mph.  To be fair, that is probably enough to take down a tree around here.

 

Before the line gets here, a post-mortem on the models:

 

NAM:  terrible

NAM 4k:  catastrophic

Euro:  pretty bad

HRRR:  missed some of the discrete stuff, but had the timing and general idea of the line from well out

GFS:  probably will end up closest on qpf, though it was too coarse for convective details

Well that's the thing.. their horrible warnings generally verify because a sneeze brings down trees around here. Today's polygons are embarrassing. I know they are probably leaned on to overwarn but come on.

 

I actually thought the models did OK, though I was focusing on the severe cutoff more than anything.. as far as rain it seems a lot of bad performances based on what it looks like now.

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Tornado WarningSEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

911 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

VAC033-085-170130-

/O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0043.000000T0000Z-160617T0130Z/

CAROLINE VA-HANOVER VA-

911 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR

SOUTHWESTERN CAROLINE AND NORTH CENTRAL HANOVER COUNTIES...

AT 911 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO

WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF KINGS DOMINION...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF

RANDOLPH MACON COLLEGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND TWO INCH HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE

TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS

LIKELY.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

ASHLAND...RANDOLPH MACON COLLEGE AND KINGS DOMINION AROUND 930 PM

EDT.

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The warnings out west seem to have done well, but obviously, the better potential was out there. 

 

Isn't SAILS supposed to help during specifically designed for days like today? Does its use also change the way we (the public) see things?

The actually dropped most of that big warning DC and east.. not sure I've seen that before heh. This line was way overwarned. Was a few segments that were probably severe intermixed but they could have crafted it all better if they tried.

 

Was busy most of the supercell time though I think there were probably too many tornado warnings.

 

And yes SAILS was added for severe weather days. This isn't the first time they haven't had it active in storms either.

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